Houston Rockets: At a Crossroads

While the Rockets have outdone preseason predictions significantly, they appear to be at a crossroads. They are capable of competing with any team, but they have appeared to be over-matched against elite teams, especially recently, with ugly losses to the Magic, Cavaliers, and Lakers.

While most teams have struggled in games against such talented opponents, the Rockets have been known for their ability to get up for and beat much more talented teams.

Therein lies the dilemma, because the Rockets as constructed are not good enough to challenge for the title, but not bad enough that it is clear they should blow this season off and plan for next year.

They can either keep their roster as constructed and make few changes knowing a deep playoff run is unlikely, make key additions using McGrady's expiring contract, or concede that they are unlikely to be a legitimate title contender and move longer contracts (Battier etc.) for expiring contracts and maybe some picks. 

While the Rockets are playing very well, they lack a scorer who they can give the ball to at the end of games and can take over. Throughout the years it was Tracy McGrady when healthy, but Yao Ming has stepped up the last few years.

Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry have performed admirably, with the latter getting the bulk of the touches down the stretch. However they both have their faults.

Aaron Brooks can disappear for a game and lose confidence in his shot. Carl Landry has faced foul trouble and when his mid-range shot is not falling, the defense can sag off him and funnel him into help defense where his short stature is a major problem.

The fact is the Rockets lack a true closer, someone who can take over and score possession after possession down the stretch. Unless they acquire someone who can consistently get their own shot they will struggle in the playoffs when the half court game is much more prevalent and easy buckets that the Rockets love will not come so easily. Therefore, unless Daryl Morey expects another miracle series out of the Rockets, its unlikely that this team even sniffs the conference finals or even the 2nd round. 

However, this strategy has positives.

While the Rockets most likely would not advance far in the playoffs, Morey could basically bring back the identical roster and add a $7 million a year player and Yao Ming. The Rockets would keep fan support by keeping a fairly competitive team and would look like championship contenders next year if they played their cards right.

The next strategy the Rockets could employ would be to just go for it and acquire an impact piece using McGrady's contract.

While this strategy would limit the Rockets' financial flexibility moving forward, the obvious positive to this strategy would be fielding a stronger team for this year and possibly go deep into the playoffs. They also would likely acquire a true "closer", as Morey would demand nothing short of All-Star production for McGrady. 

However, even if the Rockets added an All-Star, they still would be unlikely to be championship contenders. Unfortunately, there are no highly skilled 7-6 centers on the market because that is exactly what they need to get over the hump.

Adding a Chris Bosh or Kevin Martin likely would only put them into the second tier of contending teams behind the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, and Hawks because they lack a dominant big man.

The Lakers have Pau, the Celts have KG, Magic have Dwight Howard (and the Polish Hammer!), and the Hawks are a bit of an exception because I would not classify Josh Smith as dominant, yet but they have an all around great team.

I would not throw Bosh in with the above players and therefore the strategy is flawed unless they were certain they would have their addition the next year when Yao returns. 

Finally, the Rockets' last option would be to parlay their longer contracts into expiring ones and possibly some picks so the Rockets could be sure to have enough money to make a true impact addition this offseason.

While Shane Battier is the heart and soul of the team and a terrific defender, getting his $7+ million of the books for next year would go a long way into signing or acquiring a major piece come next year. 

The obvious disadvantage to this strategy is that it gives the impression that the club is giving up on the season and destroys any chance of the Rockets advancing deep in the playoffs.  

Also, giving up on a season would give the impression to potential free agents that winning is not always the number one priority in Houston.

Finally, while cap room is a luxury, free agency is a crap shoot as it is impossible to guarantee getting a great player even with major cap room. (See Pistons 2009)

Nevertheless, imagine the Rockets adding an almost max or max contract to the current roster and Yao (minus Shane Battier). And if they give him up and are able to get another pick for him, potentially two first rounders could be added to the mix.

That would be a sure-fire championship contender, so it all depends on Morey's patience. 

This year will define Morey's tenure with the Rockets. Even if he sits pat, the Rockets limp into the playoffs, and are defeated in the first round, it will still be an incredible job given the fact that he was stuck with $40 million of salary on the bench.

However, this decision will make or break the Rockets going forward, as if he does not get enough value for McGrady, it could cripple them for years, but if he does manage to make a good deal, he could set the Rockets up to be a force to be reckoned with going forward