Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 17

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks .

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.

I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up, I’ll occasionally do some two-on-one matchups, or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Alex Smith over Peyton Manning: Winner, Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6

Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson: Loser, Beanie 15.3, LT 18.3

Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson: Incomplete, Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP

Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2: Winner, Ocho 8.9, Marshall 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)

Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek: Loser, Finley 8.0, Celek 18.1

SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles: Loser, Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks: 2-2
Super Stretch Pick: 0-1
Overall: 2-3

Season Record

Regular Picks: 37-39-1

Super Stretch Picks:  6-12

Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17

Jay Cutler over Tony Romo

Cutler is coming off of a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD-to-INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones

I’m going with the rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 matchup. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st-ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s second-ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

 
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams

It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th-ranked run defense (125.7 ypg), while Williams should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd-ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs. 

Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco

Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn the Seahawks deep. Meanwhile, Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston over Miles Austin

Breaston faces Green Bay. Despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, the Packers have allowed 28 passing TDs, which ranks 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle, so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

Super Stretch

Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (Individually)

I suspect Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) and has allowed 16 rushing TDs. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s No. 1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .