Las Vegas knows the Indianapolis Colts are going to lose one of their final three regular season games, and those in charge of setting the lines are telling everybody.
Vegas installed the Colts as a slim three-point favorite against the division rival Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday night.
The public will jump all over an undefeated Colts team taking on a 7-6 Jaguars team that laid an egg to the Miami Dolphins last week at home.
Everyone will say, “If the Jags couldn’t beat the Dolphins and Chad Henne at home, then how in the world do they expect to beat the Colts and Peyton Manning?”
Hook, line, and sinker.
If you go with the mentality above or the belief that the Colts will win the game, you can congratulate yourself on padding your local bookie’s wallet, jacking up Vegas’ bankroll, or increasing the profit of some Internet gambling site in the Caribbean.
When a line like this comes out, you need to look at it and say, “Why is this line so low? What does Vegas know that I don’t?”
As soon as those questions leave your mouth, you better put money down on the side that seems like a sure-fire loser.
Maybe you are a little skeptical about the approach for this game.
Fine—I can handle that.
Look at the odds for the Colts to win their next three games and complete the perfect season.
As of Wednesday, Dec. 16, Vegas made the undefeated accomplishment an underdog. If you think the Colts will remain perfect and you put a $100 bet down, you would win $190 if the Colts can knock off the Jaguars, New York Jets, and Buffalo Bills. Not a bad return on investment for something that seems likely to happen. Or so the public thinks.
But if you forecast the Colts losing at least once to the Jaguars, Jets, or Bills, you must put down $240 to win $100.
That’s a nice chunk of change to put down on something that seems unlikely.
Hate to say it, Colts fans, but Manning and Co. are not going undefeated.
For those who don’t think Vegas is setting a trap this week, then I ask you to look at the line Vegas has out right now for the Colts’ last game of the regular season at Buffalo.
The Colts are a 2.5-point favorite.
Let me get this straight. The books are telling you the Colts are more likely to lose to a Bills team that is 5-8 as opposed to a 7-6 Jaguars team playing for their playoff lives?
Something really strange is going on here, and I am not going to be the one who falls for the trap.
It seems like Vegas is anticipating a Colts loss to the Jags, and then the Colts will put it in cruise control over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Every now and then Las Vegas gives the public a chance to win money, and for some unknown reason the public refuses to accept.
The idea of Vegas giving money away sounds ridiculous, but such an occurrence is sitting right before our very eyes with the Indianapolis Colts.