Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Granderson-Scherzer-Jackson Blockbuster

By now we’ve all heard the news of the major three-team trade that was completed yesterday, drastically changing the landscape of all teams involved.  In case you haven’t heard, let’s take a look at the deal:

The Yankees Get: Curtis Granderson
The Tigers Get: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke and Austin Jackson
The Diamondbacks Get: Edwin Jackson & Ian Kennedy

First, the big loser in this trade is clearly the Diamondbacks, not because they got terrible players back but because they didn’t get enough value to justify moving a talent as good as Scherzer. 

I know there is concern regarding his ability to throw 200+ innings in a season, but when you have stuff like his, how can you give up on him so easily?

Scherzer has a career major league K/9 of 9.54 (not to mention a minor league mark of 11.8).  He posted a WHIP last season of 1.34 due to a BABIP of .323, tied for 11th among pitchers with at least 170 innings in 2009.  Needless to say, he has the potential to significantly improve there.

Throw all that in with the fact that he’s 25 years old and is under team control for some time, you have to wonder what the team was thinking.  He has potential ace written all over him.  

Scherzer hwas ranked No. 34 on my initial list of Top 35 Starting Pitchers for yearly league owners in 2010 (click here to view), which Edwin Jackson failed to make.

Why, you ask?  How could a pitcher who went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, at 26 years old, fail to be considered one of the top 35 pitchers in the league?  The fact of the matter is, he has regression written all over him.

He pitched to a below-average BABIP of .281, something that he’s unlikely to repeat.  He also had a career best BB/9 of 2.94, something I have reservations of him duplicating in 2010.  He has been improving for each of the past four years, so there is hope:

• 2006 - 6.19
• 2007 - 4.92
• 2008 - 3.78
• 2009 - 2.94

Still, considering his career mark of 4.02, it’s hard to imagine him not regressing, at least to around his 2008 mark.  Couple that with a weaker BABIP and you realize that the WHIP can only go up.

Granted, the move to the NL is likely to help him maintain his 2009 success, but it’s still hard to imagine him duplicating it.

In Kennedy, the Diamondbacks get a potential No. 4 or 5 starting pitcher with some potential for a bit more.  Injuries cost him the majority of the 2009 campaign, while inability hurt him in 2008 (an 8.17 ERA over 39.2 innings). 

We all know he’s not that bad, but with 133.1 innings total of the past two seasons, you have to wonder how much he’s going to be able to give the team in 2010.

If Scherzer was the only piece the Diamondbacks gave up, that may be one thing, but including Schlereth certainly tips things out of their favor.  He has control issues, for sure, but an electric fastball that, if harnessed, could turn him into a potential closer.

Considering the status of the Tigers bullpen, who knows how quickly that could happen.  He’s instantly a player to watch in all formats.

From the Tigers perspective, they did all right.  The combination of Justin Verlander and Scherzer could be dynamic for a long time (not even mentioning Rick Porcello).  They picked up a potential closer of the future along with a middle reliever in Coke.  The other piece, Austin Jackson, is your typical over-hyped Yankees prospect.

That’s not to say that he won’t be good, but I’ve never been overly impressed with him.  I profiled him back in November of 2008 (click here to view), where I concluded that he had a long ways to go to be a useful major league hitter.  His 2009 performance (.300, 4 HR, 24 SB) did little to change my opinion.

While he has power potential he has yet to show it and is moving to a ballpark that is not as conducive to the long ball.  The 2009 average came courtesy of a .390 BABIP, so don’t look for that to continue.

All he has going for him is the speed, and it’s not like he had an overly impressive number last season.  Even if the Tigers give him a chance, he’s not going to be an impact fantasy player in 2010 outside of maybe five-outfielder formats (but even that’s a stretch).

Granderson, meanwhile, has his detractors but moves into a tremendous situation.  While he hit only .227 in the new Yankee Stadium in 2009, he did hit two home runs in 22 at bats, showing where he could bring a lot of hope.

Last season he hit a career high 30 home runs and while it came courtesy of a realistic 12.6% HR/FB, he saw his FB% rise from 40.7% in 2008 to 49.3% in 2009. 

That increase is not likely to continue, and also may help explain his under whelming average (.249).  As I’ve said before, the more fly balls, the less likely to fall in.

In Yankee Stadium, he should be able to hit a similar number of home runs with fewer fly balls, likely leading to a significantly better average.  He also may get an opportunity to run a bit more in the Yankees lineup, adding more to his value.

Where he will hit is one of the biggest questions (on top of his ability to hit southpaws).  If Johnny Damon returns, he’s likely to hit sixth or seventh, hurting his potential for runs scored, though he’ll have more of an opportunity to drive in runs. 

That question will be answered soon enough, but for now, what we need to know is he brings the potential to have his first 30/30 season with a much better average.  What’s not to like?

In general, I’d say the biggest winner in this deal is Curtis Granderson, with Daniel Schlereth and Max Scherzer both in a good situation as well.  As for the losers?  It’s easily the Diamondbacks, who gave up way too much considering the talent they let got.

What are your thoughts?  Who do you think the winners of the deal are?  Who are the losers?

Previous Fantasy Impacts of Recent Transactions:

• Hermida to Boston
• Teahen for Fields & Getz
• Iwamura to Pittsburgh
• Hardy for Gomez
• Shoppach to Tampa Bay
• Wagner to Atlanta
• Polanco, Scutaro, Fox & Zaun

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