Dolphins @ Bills: Week 12 Preview and Keys To The Game

This Sunday the 3-7 Buffalo Bills will host the 5-5 Miami Dolphins in an AFC East contest that will help to shape several things of importance to fans of both franchises.

For the Bills, each loss means that they are assuring themselves of a high pick in the upcoming 2010 draft, where many fans are urging them to select a top flight franchise quarterback.

For the Dolphins, this game will result in them either being one game above a .500 record and inching closer to a playoff wild card slot, or one game below .500 and on the outside looking in with regards to the playoffs.

Miami has won three of their past four games, while the Bills have dropped three straight.

Both teams have suffered key injuries as of late, so each team figures to do some  shuffling around on both sides of the ball to compensate. Neither team offers up any fantasy stars or top 10 ranked players in any offensive category.

From a historical perspective, the Dolphins have won the last three games, outscoring the Bills by an embarrassing total of 79-29. They were the more physical team and controlled the line of scrimmage.

When the Bills traveled to Miami in week four this year, the Dolphins held the ball for 37 minutes compared to the Bills 22 minutes. Miami had the ball for 73 plays compared to 39 for the Bills.

The Bills threw three interceptions in the game, and Miami had no turnovers. Yes, it was pretty ugly. A game to forget for Bills fans, which proved to be a big step backwards for then starting quarterback Trent Edwards.

The Bills won their first three home games in the 2008 season. Since then, the Bills home record is 1-8. Terrible. Yet the fans continue to come out and support the team, hoping to file out of the stadium elated, not depressed.

In the past two weeks, Miami has lost top running back Ronnie Brown for the season, in addition to their elite nose tackle Jason Ferguson. Both of these players are going to be difficult to replace. Since Ronnie Brown was the featured guy in the Wildcat formation, it makes that aspect of their offense almost non- existent.

For the Bills, their whopping total of 14 players on the I.R. list is so staggering, that it is almost comical. First round draft choice Eric Wood and Seth McKinney are the latest additions to the list, as both were injured against the Jaguars.

To compensate for the losses, the Bills signed ex-Steelers free agent lineman Kendall Simmons and activated lineman Christian Gaddis from the practice squad. They also added two new players to the practice squad this week: offensive lineman Jason Watkins and defensive lineman Lonnie Harvey.

Who are all these new Bills?

In case you have been vacationing for the past month, and realize when you watch the game and see names and numbers that don't seem very familiar, don't feel bad. Maybe you swore off watching Bills games until Dick Jauron was fired.

There have been that many changes to the roster that you wouldn't probably know these following names and numbers. We don't yet know from this list who will be active on Sunday, but at least you will know who they are now:

No. 4—Brian Brohm—quarterback

No. 25—Ellis Lankster—defensive back

No. 35—Todd Johnson—defensive back

No. 47—Cary Harris—defensive back

No. 61—Christian Gaddis—offensive lineman

No. 66—Jason Watkins—practice squad offensive lineman

No. 71—Kendall Simmons—offensive lineman

No. 84—James Hardy—wide receiver (T.O. took his old number 81)

No. 87—Joe Klopfenstein—tight end

No. 98—Lonnie Harvey—practice squad defensive lineman

That is a bunch of moves. Thanks to Ralph Wilson and Russ Brandon, the Bills are doing their part to bring down the national unemployment rate. 

Keys To The Game:

When Miami Has The Ball:

Due to the season ending injury to Ronnie Brown, the Wildcat attack is not so wild. Think of it now as more like a kitten or (since this is the Dolphins)—more like a goldfish.

Miami's featured back is now Ricky Williams, who is more of a power runner. He is still capable of hurting the Bills, so this is one of those games that the Bills will need to focus on stopping Ricky. If they can do that, they will have a great chance to experience a rare home win. 

Chad Henne had his first start at quarterback in week four against the Bills. He took care of the ball that day, handing it off to Brown and Williams and watched them rush for a whopping 250 yards. His leading receiver for that game was Rich Camarillo who accounted for 42 yards.

So, subtract Ronnie Brown, focus your attention on containing Ricky Williams, and tell Chad Henne that he has to beat you in the air. Bring him in to chilly, windy and/or wet Ralph Wilson stadium in the last week of November, and I like the Bills chances to throttle Miami's offense.

Sure, the Bills have been banged up on defense, but there is help coming. Marcus Stroud thinks he can play on Sunday, and Terrance McGee returned to practice after missing last week's game. Kyle Williams returned last Sunday and played well, as did Donte Whitner.

The Bills defense is actually getting healthier by the week, with the exception of linebacker. So, with the recent experience of people like Spencer Johnson and John McCargo, combined with the play of safety-turned-linebacker Bryan Scott, the Bills are going to be looking to establish more physical play and attack the Dolphins offense. 

Expect to see sustained pressure on Henne, forcing him to throw the ball in to the Bills secondary, which is excelling at interceptions.

Rookie safety Jairus Byrd is still leading the NFL in interceptions, but has been slowed recently due to a sore groin. He will be rotating in and out with Donte Whitner, as they expect to come in and out based on if they are expecting a run (Whitner) or a pass (Byrd).

The defensive front of Schobel, Stroud, Williams, Denney, Kelsay, McCargo and Johnson have done a very good of applying pressure. They will need to commit to that on Sunday.

I didn't mention Aaron Maybin, because I still haven't seen him apply any pressure yet this season. When he does, I will share it with all of you assuming I don't hurt myself when I fall off of my chair.

From a linebacking perspective, Paul Posluszny, Chris Draft and Bryan Scott will need to turn in a strong effort against the rush, just as they did last Sunday in doing a solid job at thwarting Maurice Jones-Drew.

They need to do a better job of staying in their designated lanes when they blitz and stuffing the holes to avoid cut-back rushes. I vividly recall one blitz last Sunday when four Bills players were allowed to be herded off to the right side of the line.

They all just stood there in the bunch, while David Girard took off on a key scramble running right up the middle of the vacated line of scrimmage.That is an issue of discipline and is something that Paul Posluszny has not yet fully mastered.

When The Bills Have The Ball

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still going to be the starting quarterback for interim coach Perry Fewell. Fitzpatrick had the Bills leading for the vast majority of the game in Jacksonville and for the most part was accurate with his throws. Coming up with a 297 yard performance was a welcome sight for offensively-starved Bills fans.

Analyzing the numbers, this game stacks up as follows:

Bills offense - 28th in the league, averaging 275 yards a game. Miami's defense is 19th in the league, allowing 341 yards per game. The Dolphins give up 105 rushing yards a game (12th) and 235 yards a game in the air (22nd). The Bills run game generates 102 yards a game (21st) and 173 yards in the air (25th).

Losing Jason Ferguson is a big blow for Miami. The Bills stand to have a better chance of controlling the pass rush and opening up a lane or two for the running backs without Ferguson being there to clog things up.

The Bills have been wanting to establish their ground game, but need more from Marshawn Lynch to do so. If Lynch can't pick up his game, go with Fred Jackson full time, which seemed to work pretty well from what I recall for the first three weeks.

Lynch was injured in the second quarter against the Jaguars and never returned. He did practice this week, and is expected to play. So, it could very well be the Bills offense, and not Miami's, that runs the most Wildcat formation plays this week.

What is so ironic about that is that Miami invented the Wildcat. If the weather does turn nasty, all the more reason to run it, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is not known as the most accurate passer in the league.

Fred Jackson will have a number of options for what he wants to do with the ball. His passing has not been tested that much yet, as he is one for one so far this year, but that one completion was a great touchdown pass to Lee Evans.

Terrell Owens is coming off of his big 197 yards of receptions against the Jaguars. The long touchdown pass should appease T.O. for awhile, but the home crowd will probably be wanting to see some big plays from him.

How effective will new addition Kendall Simmons be? Word now is that he could be starting this game, with only a handful of practices under his belt to learn the Bills offense.

Expect some blown assignments and maybe a penalty or two from him as he shakes off the rust. He only saw action in one game all year with New England, prior to the Patriots releasing him.

Bills Fan's - Remember This Team?

It should be noted that the Bills fans have not seen the team at home in a while. Since the Browns game in week five, the Bills have only had one home game against Houston in week eight during all this time (a span of seven weeks).

Then you have the home game in Toronto a week from tonight (Thursday Dec. 3) with the final two home games coming over the final three weeks of the season.

Perry Fewell —Continuing To Put His Own Stamp On This Team

In his first week, Perry Fewell changed things up by having the Bills wear pads in practice to stress being more physical and getting the running game going again. This week, Fewell had the team practicing outside in the rain, which is something they might see in the game as well.

He continues to be passionate, and completely engrossed in his work, which is not atypical for NFL head coaches. He does not want to talk much about his chances to be the next Bills permanent head coach, (is there really such a thing as a permanent coach?), or to even speculate on all the developments of the big-name former head coaches that are in the mix for consideration.

Fewell said that he can't control that. But he can control how the Bills play under him now, and he is doing everything in his power to have them play physical ball, be smarter and disciplined, and win a game.

Unanswered Bills Questions

Will the Bills be utilizing the Wildcat offense more? If Lynch is truly healthy, you would think the answer will be yes. If he is not, then the defenses can key on Fred Jackson, so it would be scrapped.

When will James Hardy see any game action? Bills need to find out if he has grown or developed at all since the bad injury occurred in his rookie year. He is apparently looking good in practice, so let's see him in some games to see how he is playing.

Further development of Hardy along with tight end Shawn Nelson can only be a good thing for the 2010 Bills team. Nelson continues to show some great hands but his foolish chop block penalty last week was the reason that Fred Jackson lost his first rushing touchdown of the season. That is why they call it growing pains.

Speaking of assessing player development, the Bills would like to evaluate other players that have missed time lately such as: Donte Whitner, Jonathan Scott, and Jamon Meredith. Other Bills looking to play more to establish themselves are: Nic Harris, Ashlee Palmer, Brian Brohm, Cary Harris and Ellis Lankster.

Brohm may be a long-shot to play, but if the Bills think he has enough of the playbook down, I would like to see them put him in if there is blowout game over the rest of the season. Let him feel what it is like to be in a regular season game as opposed to an exhibition game, to let him get a taste of playing when it counts.

Some Bills that have seen increased reps that showed promise last Sunday were Spencer Johnson and John McCargo. McCargo was out of practice this week due to a  calf injury. They both put some nice licks on David Girard that was a pleasant surprise.

Fourth Quarter Blues

Will the Bills finally play a strong fourth quarter? The Bills coaches and the players have been talking about this subject for at least two or three weeks running, but have yet to show a strong fourth quarter performance since they beat the Panthers.

In the ten games this season, the Bills have had the lead or were tied coming in to the start of the fourth quarter in eight games. That means they found a way to lose that lead five of the eight times. That is something the head coach in 2010 has to address; how to win close games and instilling a self-confidence that those games are our's to win.

Since today's article is being written on Thanksgiving, I want to wish a wonderful holiday to everyone, and that you are able to appreciate and acknowledge what you are thankful for. Despite all the losses and heartache over the years, I am thankful to my dad for introducing me to the Bills and football, a game I love and a team I love as well. Happy Thanksgiving !