DALLAS (-11.0) 28 Washington 15

Dallas last week at Green Bay because of a -3 in turnovers, including 2 lost fumbles, not because they played poorly. In fact, the Cowboys out-gained the Packers 4.8 yards per play to 4.2 yppl, as their defense continues to play very well. The Cowboys' stop unit has yielded just 4.6 yppl in their last 5 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl) and I expect them to contain a sub-par Redskins' attack today (0.3 yppl worse than average).

Washington has a solid defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), but Dallas is 1.2 yppl better than average offensively and that unit will be eager to bounce back with a good performance today.

Dallas has been held to under 6 yards per play just two other times this season and they bounced back the next week with very impressive performances, gaining 8.3 yppl at Kansas City the week after averaging just 4.4 yppl at Denver, and gaining 6.2 yppl in week 9 after averaging a modest 5.4 yppl against Seattle. My math model favors Dallas by 13 1/2 points, so I like the Cowboys minus the points.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

I have 5 NCAA Best Bets and 3 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 1 NFL Strong Opinion!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for updates on Best Bet releases