Cleveland 20 DETROIT (-3.5) 19June 14, 2016
Cleveland's offense has gone from bad to historically bad since trading away top WR Braylon Edwards before week 5, as the Browns' quarterbacks have combined for 71 passing yards per game at a horrific 2.7 yards per pass play in 5 games with the current collection of bad receivers.
The Browns' attack is now 1.9 yards per play worse than average but at least they have a chance to move the ball into scoring range a few times against a bad Detroit defense that is 1.0 yppl worse than average (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). Cleveland also has the benefit of great special teams to get them into better field position and that should especially be the case against the Lions' horrible special teams units.
Detroit isn't as bad as Cleveland offensively, but the still Lions rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average with WR Calvin Johnson healthy (he missed a few games). Cleveland is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively, so Detroit isn't likely to ring up a ton of points and this game should be fairly competitive.
Surprisingly, my ratings favor Detroit by only 3 points and the Browns apply to a very good 40-9-1 ATS situation that plays on the road underdog when two horrible teams get together. Cleveland also applies to a 97-39 ATS contrary angle that plays on bad teams that have scored 17 or fewer in 3 or more consecutive games. that angle won last week with Washington over Denver, so Cleveland certainly has a chance here.
I'll lean with the Browns based on the technical analysis. Remember, Detroit lost at home as a 4 point favorite in week 8 to a previously winless Rams team, so a Browns' victory here is not that implausible.
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