Whatifsports.com will utilize our NFL simulation technology, statistical research capabilities, and up-to-the minute roster and depth chart information to preview the upcoming NFL season.
We will look at each division before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results, and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football.
Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 8, 2008. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content, including links to other previews that have already been posted, is located here.
For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50 percent of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record.
The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average.
In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentages and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.
Today we will preview the AFC West.
San Diego Chargers (11-5)
San Diego was our Super Bowl pick in this exercise last year, and they do not look too far from it again this season. A rehabilitating quarterback and thin secondary are about the only obstacles on San Diego's path to another deep playoff run. The Chargers average 28.2 points per game (fourth in the NFL) and allow 19.4 points (fourth) against a schedule featuring just four games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 13-3
Most Significant Newcomer: Jacob Hester, RB—This is not really saying much. Basically, we mention Hester as a means to talk more about the team's most significant loss, Michael Turner. Along with Darren Sproles, Hester will spell LaDainian Tomlinson. Sproles will likely get the third-down looks, so the 224-pound Hester will be counted on to get tough yards. He may also get some time at fullback after Lorenzo Neal's release. Look for 250 total yards and three touchdowns.
Biggest Strength:
We're going to send you the most entertaining Kansas City Chiefs articles, videos, and podcasts from around the web.
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