Reviewing the Raptors: Better than Expected After 10 Games

Five and Five, a Good Start

The ten game mark of the season is good place to stand back and take a look at how the rebuilt Raptors have done so far, and reflect on what could have been and what’s next.

The short answer is found on ESPN’s John Hollinger's team statistics. The Raptors are first in the NBA for Offensive Efficiency, scoring 113 points per 100 possessions. But the Raptors are last in the NBA for Defensive Efficiency permitting 112.1 points per 100 possessions.

Therefore, the Raptors must be five and five over their first 10 games. Well they are, but the Hollinger statistics are burying a wealth of important details.

To start, no one predicted the Raptors would start the season off this strong. A few may have boldly predicted a few more wins but, from the post Raptors Will Bounce Back in 2009-10

“Predicting the early headlines this season to read “Raptors Go 2 and 8 Out of the Gate ” as the Raptors face Cleveland and Orlando at home and then New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, LA Clippers, and Phoenix on the road.”

With eight of 10 games against playoff teams from last year and six Western Conference road games, a slow start to the season should not have surprised anyone.

The rationale for expecting a slow start was on firm ground. The Raptors had struggled during the preseason and despite Jay Triano’s assurances that the team was concentrating on defense, little evidence of defense could be found in preseason games.

The team was trying to incorporate nine new players. There was a rookie in the starting line-up. Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu had missed most of the preseason. Defensive specialist Antoine Wright had played just one preseason game. Jose Calderon had a terrible preseason. And new fan favorite Reggie Evans was injured.

Following the final preseason embarrassment in Minnesota, the Raptors ended their preseason with just two wins and six losses. Leading to Toronto Raptors Fans Feeling the Fear!

Expected Scoring, Unexpected Defense

The new-look Toronto Raptors were expected to score and were even forecast to be a top-five scoring franchise. An early look at the Raptors’ projected stats indicated team totals for a 10-man rotation of:

“240 MIN; 109 PPG;  41.9 RPG;  26.8 APG;  6.9 STL;  4.5 BLK; 13.7 TO”

The actual stats are: 106.9 PPG; 39.4 RPG; 20.5 APG; 5.1 STL; 5.0 BLK; 12.1 TO

The Raptors are indeed a top-five scoring team to start this season!

But the Raptors have not been winning games just by scoring. The Raptors have been winning on the defensive end.

In the five Raptors wins, they have held opponents to just 91.6 points while scoring a laudable 104.2. That’s a defensive performance worthy of any of the league’s top six defensive clubs.

And the teams the Raptors have defeated were good teams: Cleveland, Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago, and the L.A. Clippers.

But in the five Raptors losses, the Raptors have scored 109.6 points while their opponents have poured in 120.2. While Raptors scoring in losses might be impressive, no one wins very often when giving up 120 points in this league!

However the Raptors losses were hardly unexpected. Orlando, Dallas, San Antonio, and Phoenix are all very good clubs. Plus the Raptors are 2-6 all-time in Memphis for some inexplicable reason.

In all, a 3-1 home record plus 2-4 against Western Conference teams on the road has to be considered a successful start to the season.

Raptors Getting Better Each Game

The Raptors appear to be getting stronger as the young season progresses.

Over the last three games against Chicago, L.A. Clippers, and Phoenix, the Raptors have shown a defensive toughness that was not expected. At least not expected so early in the season.

At just 93 points per game given up over the last three games, the Raptors seem to have found their defensive stride  One explanation is the abandonment of the Jose Calderon-Jarrett Jack duo point guard lineup to close out games.

The Evidence of Defense from the Raptors has coincided with this change.

“As recently identified in the True Hoop Article: What’s Working For The Raptors , when Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack are on the floor together, the Raptors are surrendering 136.8 points per 100 possessions. Now that’s unbelievably bad! It’s historically bad!

Now the guys at True Hoop were not the first to notice this. After the Memphis game, the question was raised Can Jarrett Jack Play Shooting Guard?

The answer has now been settled. Jarrett Jack cannot play shooting guard for the Raptors! The duo point guard lineup isn’t working!”

It can be argued that the game in Phoenix was lost when “for some strange and illogical reason, Jay Triano decided to go back to the worst defensive guard lineup the Raptors have put on the floor this season.”  Coaching Decision Costs Raptors A Win!

In Phoenix, Triano quickly recognized that the Suns were pulling away from the Raptors with Jack and Calderon playing together and substituted Turkoglu for Jack with six minutes to go. Turkoglu almost pulled out the win at the end.

Perhaps worse than two Raptors road losses that can be attributed to the Calderon-Jack lineup has been the negative impact on Jack’s confidence. Jack has under-performed to start the season and needs to return to what he does best, backing up Jose Calderon at point guard.

The Next 10 Games

The next 10 games represent a continuation of this exceptionally challenging start to the Raptors season.

Denver (7-3), Utah (4-6), Charlotte (3-6), Boston (8-3), and Atlanta (8-2) on the road.

Miami (7-2), Orlando (7-3), Indiana (4-3), Phoenix (9-2), and Washington (2-7) at home.

Facing only three teams with under .500 records, escaping the next 10 with another 5-5 split won’t be easy for the Raptors.

But Raptors fans should be cautiously optimistic with just how well their team has performed this early in the season. And absolutely ecstatic with just how quickly the high scoring, offensive minded Raptors have implemented Jay Triano’s defensive schemes.

Maybe, just maybe, the Raptors can out-perform all reasonable expectations in the next 10 games of their schedule.