The Carolina Sports Guy's Week 10 NFL Picks

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There are many signs a football team is about to begin the search for a new coach. In fact even the most casual fan could pick out the correct answer to this multiple choice question:

The biggest sign an NFL team is looking for a new coach is:

A) The head coach allegedly beats up an assistant coach in training camp, the police are called in, an investigation goes on for months, rumors start swirling about said coach’s violent and abusive past and then he goes on national TV on game day and announces that the only time he has ever hit a woman is one time when he caught his ex-wife cheating on him.

B) The owner, not pleased with the team’s direction, decides that it would be wise to hire a consultant to come in and help his head coach through a scoring drought, calls a retirement home in Minnesota, asks if he can borrow their Bingo caller, brings said Bingo caller into town and a couple of weeks later has his GM tell the head coach that he is stripped of play-calling duties because the Bingo caller will now call plays and he’s pretty sure G-52 is a winner.

C) The owner invites two fans who are longtime season-ticket holders to his office to talk about the state of the team, tells them he’s sickened by the team’s performance, assures the two fans that he will make changes, fires the GM, then denies he fired the GM and finally has to listen to the head coach explain to the media that he really hasn’t been practicing his players that hard.

D) All of the above

The NFL coaching carousel is a rite of passage. Everyone that follows the sport knows that a coach's job hinges on his won-loss record. But football folks also know that a marginally good coach can balance good seasons with bad seasons if he doesn’t go around making a mockery of his organization (see answer A) or if the owner hasn’t lost a complete sense of rationale (see answers B & C).

For the Carolina Panthers, John Fox has been the epitome of a marginally good coach who has balanced bad seasons with enough good seasons and high moments to keep his job.

Consider this: In 2002, Fox took over a 1-15 team and went 7-9 in his first season. Without a doubt, Fox was an infusion of freshness and his rookie season culminated in one of the biggest about faces in NFL history. Of course, Fox and the Panthers benefited from playing a last-place schedule thanks to their dismal campaign in 2001.

In his second year at the helm, Fox guided the Panthers to a surprising NFC Championship and a berth in the Super Bowl where they lost to the New England Patriots.

Playing a division-champion’s schedule following their 11-5 season in ‘03, the Panthers started 1-7 in 2004 before salvaging a 7-9 season.

In 2005 the Panthers, based on the previous season’s sub-.500 record, were awarded with a middle-of-the-road strength of schedule and parlayed that into an 11-5 record and their second playoff appearance under Fox.

A 7-9 record in 2007 followed an 8-8 season in 2006. Last season, the Panthers again won the NFC South under Fox and have seen their division-champion’s schedule turn into a 3-5 start in 2009.

Sunday, the Panthers were on the verge of the season’s biggest upset, having dominated unbeaten New Orleans in the first half. Suddenly, a 4-4 start seemed a reality. Then Fox happened. Or at least Fox and his coaching staff, for whom he is ultimately responsible, happened.

During the first half, the Saints had six possessions where they were faced with having to gain three to seven yards on third down. Once, they ran a swing pass to the right flat. On another occasion they went deep to Reggie Bush covered by Chris Gamble on the sideline. Four times they threw slants or short outs to the right side.

Trailing 17-6 during the first drive of the second half, the Saints faced a 3rd-and-3 at their own 27. The Panthers lined up eight in the box with man-to-man coverage on the outside and a lone safety deep.

I knew the Saints were looking for the quick slant. The guy pouring drinks at The Corner Bar knew the quick slant was coming. The three blind men playing the blues in front of The Superdome knew the quick slant was there. The Panthers had no clue.

The result: Brees hits Devery Henderson with a quick slant to the right, he slips behind the safety on the route and turns it into a 63-yard gain. On the next play Pierre Thomas scores on a 10-yard run and the extra point cut the lead to 17-13.

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