NY JETS (-7.0) 26 Jacksonville 19
New York WR Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury in week 8, after missing nearly 3 games, to join Braylon Edwards and give rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez two good targets to throw to.
Sanchez averaged a solid 6.8 yards per pass play against Miami in the first game with a full compliment of receivers and I expect a decent Jets' pass attack from here on out to go along with a good rushing attack (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team). The Jaguars can't stop the run (4.6 ypr) or the pass (6.9 yppp), so I expect the Jets to move the ball very well in this game.
New York's good defense, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, should win the battle against a Jacksonville offense that is 0.3 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).
My math model favors the Jets by 9 points but Jacksonville applies to 240-123-9 ATS contrary indicator. I'll pass on the side, but I like the Over.
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