New Orleans (-13.5) 30 ST. LOUIS 21
As bad as the Rams have been the last 3 years (6-34 straight up and 13-26-1 ATS) they have, like most bad teams, been decent following their bye week. St. Louis is 2-0 ATS after their bye week, registering upset wins as an 11 1/2 point dog at New Orleans in 2007 (37-29 score) and as a 13 1/2 point dog at Washington last year (19-17).
The Rams are coming off a confidence building win at Detroit prior to their bye week and losing teams (after at least 3 games) are an incredible 30-6 ATS as home underdogs or more than 5 points following their bye week, including Tampa Bay's upset win over Green Bay last week.
New Orleans, meanwhile, applies to a negative 27-63-4 ATS road letdown situation and I can certainly see the Saints not focusing as much for the Rams as they do for better teams. My math model favors New Orleans by 13 points, so the line is fair, and the situation favors the Rams.
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