Alabama and Florida: Shocking Statistics and How They Will Change

As you may know, statistics can be very helpful in illustrating a point you want to prove or even proving either side of a heated argument in some cases. Such is the case with Alabama and Florida.

Common Opponents -

Florida beat Tennessee by 10 points and Alabama beat them by only two. Therefore Florida must be the better team. But wait, Alabama beat Arkansas by by 28 points and Florida just squeaked by with a three point win, so Alabama must be better?

They both had a similar game against LSU so they must the same. But wait, Florida beat Kentucky by 34 points and Alabama only beat them by 18, so does that give the edge to Florida?

By adding the scores of common opponents, Alabama beat them 109-52 and Florida beat them 100-43. Alabama scored nine more points and Florida nine less points to be scored. Boy that sounds like two pretty evenly matched teams.

The casual fan may be shocked to see that Alabama actually scored more points against common opponents and that Florida allowed less points, since Florida is primarily known as a points racking juggernaut and Alabama is known for defense. It's funny that these stats are flipped in the other order.

Each team has beaten the common opponents so far by 57 points. Isn't that quite a facinating statistic? Apparently there is no edge in common opponents.

How the Figures Will Change -

There will be two other common opponents before the meeting in Atlanta. Florida will play South Carolina, a team Alabama beat handily 20-6 and Alabama will play Mississippi State, a team Florida struggled with before winning 29-19.

Florida has recently had a blowout win, but usually seems to have a tough game with South Carolina, and Steve Spurrier will give his old team his best shot. I do not expect Florida to win it by more than Alabama's 14 point margin.

Alabama is looking to continue to break out the offense and they will beat Mississippi State by more than Florida's 10 point margin.

Passing and Rushing -

You think you know these two teams, but once again get ready to be shocked.

So far this year Alabama has passed for 1815 yards and Florida has passed for 1782. What a minute, Greg McElroy, a first year starter playing against a tougher strength of schedule than Florida has thrown for more yards than a Heisman Trophy winner? Yes, that's the tale of the tape so far.

Alabama has run for 1917 yards and Florida has run for 2166—249 yards more. But wait, isn't Alabama the running team with the guy that's being talked about for the Heisman? Yes, but Tim Tebow is like having another running back on the field and no QB gets running yards like he does.

Alabama has a running average of 5.24 yards per carry and Florida has an average of 5.51. That's just a few short inches of difference. Both teams know they can run the ball and both use the run to impose their will on the other team's defense.

How the Figures Will Change -

Alabama will continue to lead Florida on passing yardage and perhaps add to their advantage.

Florida will continue to lead Alabama in rushing but the gap will lesson by the SEC Championship Game.

Red Zone Stats

Everyone knows Alabama has trouble in the red zone right? That is after all, what everybody's saying. And everyone knows Florida and Tim Tebow are a red zone scoring machine, right?

Actually, Alabama ranks 12th in the nation and converts red zone opportunities about 87 percent of the time. Florida ranks 84th and converts over 76 percent of their opportunities.

Alabama is actually doing nine percent better than last years team in the red zone and Florida is doing 12 percent poorer than last year.

If the stats so far go against what you've thought about both teams so far, you're not alone. The mainstream press has been accurately portraying what really going on in favor of hype and controversy.

How the Figures Will Change -

Florida's percentage should increase as should Alabama's due to the strength of the opponents, but Alabama will maintain a commanding lead.

Third and Fourth Down Conversions -

Though Alabama has converted 49 first downs this year to Florida's 51, Alabama has had many more attempts than the Gators. Therefore, the Gators lead in the 3rd down conversion ratio 45% to 37%.

This is the first stat that goes pretty much as expected.

Total First Downs

Alabama has converted 186 total first downs this season. 92 by rushing, 82 by passing, and 12 by penalty. Overall this shows a very good balance.

Florida has converted 204 total first downs this season. 18 more than Alabama. But they have 114 of them by rushing, 79 trough passing, and 11 by penalty. This also is a good balance.

Excluding penalties, Alabama converts 56% of it's first downs running and 44% passing. For Florida the ratio is almost 60% running and 40% passing.

What These Figures Don't Show and How They May Change -

No team likes to be predictable, but Florida is just that on third down. Third down is "Tebow Time." Tebow accounts for more rushing first downs than any running back and of course he throws the first downs too.

Tebow's reluctance to give up control of the majority of third down plays could cause a decrease in their conversion rates as teams simply key on him on third down and force him into a hurried throw which is not his strength.

Alabama has worked through the hardest part of their schedule and with McElroy getting over a mid season slump, Alabama's numbers should improve. Both should enter their game together with pretty equal numbers.

Conclusions -

You may have been shocked that both teams have beaten common opponents by the same margin this year. Most thought Florida had been crushing opponents and Alabama just getting by.

I'm sure you were shocked that Alabama actually has more offensive yardage than Florida especially in passing. The worry about Greg McElroy not being able to go toe to toe with Tebow in the Championship game is a joke. He's already doing better now.

I know you were dumbfounded that Alabama simply kills Florida's production in the red zone and that gap could only widen. Most sportswriters would have you believe Alabama has two left feet in the red zone compared to Florida, but Alabama is in the top 10% of the best in red zone conversions and Florida isn't even in the top 50 percent.

Overall Alabama's numbers are much better than last year's team at this time and Florida's is much worse. Given the closeness of last years game, one would have to say that Alabama is actually the better team this year and should win the next matchup.

Well, that's only if the stats work out and we all know that stats can tell almost any story the author wants to tell. These stats came from http://www.cfbstats.com/ .