Preview: Blue Jackets Vs. Detroit Red Wings

OFFENSE

This is a Detroit team whose firepower has taken some serious hits, both in departed UFAs, as well as with injuries - Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Andreas Lilja and, most recently, former CBJ forward, Jason Williams. 

The results have been very un-Red Wing-esque - statistically, Detroit ranks 16th in goals scored/game, at 2.80 goals/game - additionally, they rank near the bottom of the league in goal scoring percentage (goals scored to shots attempted), at a paltry 8.3%. 

But, what's most interesting about their offensive ineptitude is their diminished total shots on goal/net.  Historically, this was a team who, overwhelming, led the NHL in shots on goal/net.  Given all the injuries, departures and basically, the team's stalwarts getting older, my, how things have changed.  As it relates to even strength, this is not as much of a cause for concern as in years past. 

The Jackets, for the first time in their history, does not have offensive ineptitude as an obstacle.  That albatross of secondary scoring is no longer (an albatross) - the CBJ rank 7th - yep, you read that correctly - 7th, in goals scored/game, with 3.19 goals/game.  Just as impressive is their goal scoring percentage of 11%. 

Well, you tell me, do you recall when this percentage was ever, let alone this late into the season, in double digits?  Nope, I don't recall, either.  If there is one area for improvement, it is that of blueline scoring, with 4 total goals scored from their blueline corps.

Edge: Jackets

DEFENSE

This area is tough to handicap an edge to - while Detroit has, perhaps, the best D-Man of this generation, Nicklas Lidstrom, the piston (no pun, intended) that makes the Wings run, on many levels, if you eliminate both he (+8) and Jan Hejda (+9), from a +/- standpoint, it is essentially a wash, the only advantage being the scoring they receive from their current crop of D-Men - 9 blueline goals scored for Detroit vs. 4 for the CBJ. 

But, much like the Carolina game, the difference appears to be that the Jackets finally have enough offense - forward lines - to cover up for their breakdowns while Detroit's lines - again, via defections, injuries and father time - haven't received that dependable frontline production, as in years past.

The Jackets lately seemed to have found their defensive groove - the return of Jan Hejda certainly helps - if Mike Commodore can continue to return to form, this will certainly help.  

Edge: Push

GOALTENDING

Jimmy Howard is listed as the starting goaltender, tonight. I'll believe it when I see it.  You tell me: You don't think Mike Babcock wouldn't slip Chris Osgood in goal, just to see if it gets into the CBJ's heads? For his 1st round playoff performance I would use the word unconscious—the expression "living in a tree" also comes to mind.

As well as the shutout Osgood pitched on March 17th, the last regular season game in which the CBJ faced Detroit, and the next game after the 8-2 embarrassment the Wings suffered, in "The Joe", a week or so, earlier, against the CBJ.  I would watch for that last-minute switcharoo, personally.  Even so, let's break down the goal tending, with both Osgood and Howard vs. Steve Mason. 

Mase 3.27 GAA and a 891 Save%

Osgood 2.77 GAA and a .902 Save%

Howard 3.42 GAA and a .879 Save%

But, as in the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend!".  Let's analzye Mase's numbers, with and without the presence of "The Big Plus", Jan Hejda:

4.00 GAA w/o Hejda; 2.45 GAA with Hejda

.861 Save% w/o Hejda; .923 Save % with Hejda

Last I looked, Hejda's back, so, I 'cap this in a far different manner, no matter which goalie is in net for the Wings.

Edge: Jackets (huge, if Howard, slight, if Osgood)

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Jackets PP remains highly ranked at tied for 10th in the league cranking away at a 22.2% conversion rate.  The PK?  Not so much at 19st killing at just a 79.5% rate; however, on the PK side, expect this to improve with both the return of Hejda, as well as the continued return to form of Commodore.

As for Detroit, and their special teams proclivity, or lack thereof, who'da thunk it?  Detroit's PP is decent, ranked 15th, at a 20% conversion rate - let's face it:  this descent to mediocrity is staggering.  On the PK side of things, Detroit ranks - wait for it - 26th in the league, with a 75.9% rate. 

Now, while that's astounding, also keep in mind that Detroit is usually the least penalized team in the league.  Original Six bias?  I believe so.  Sure, Detroit's a finesse team, but, their leading PIM getter, last season?  62 total PIM minutes.  As my father used to say, when describing the Miami Dolphins miniscule penalty statistics, "No one's THAT good".

What does that mean?  The Jackets FINALLY match up well against this team when it comes to the special teams game.  Their PP will need to continue work if they want to put one past this team but it's a favorable matchup...and that more than anything seems to be why they are doing so well early on.. The players aren't resting on the PP... They are workin as if it's an even strength shift.

Edge: Jackets (slight, if only due to few penalties being called on the Red Wings, by the white stripes)

X FACTOR

On paper, this should really favor the Jackets - but, before we get too giddy on "popping our collars" (as the youths of America now do), keep in mind that the Wings, while down, will try to remind the Jackets that they did, indeed, sweep the CBJ in the SC Playoff 1st round matchup.  And, on the subject of an injured/down team, they will be like a wounded animal.  Just saying...

Another reason for tempering expectations is the CBJ's historical penchant for "performances" - I use that term, loosely - after multi-day layoffs, particularly while on a home stand.  If you need evidence of my point, recall that flat (other words come to mind, but, it's family hour) performance against the Kings, last season, in December - same situation.

Now, before you think I give reverence to the Wings - I seem to recall they were one post shot from reclaiming the the Title - as it relates to the X-Factor, not as much as you'd think.  Just recall Hitch's comments about dethroning the Wings stranglehold on the Central Division - look, he's tired of it - so, don't expect this team to not compete and send out a clear message to a downtrodden team.

Prediction:  Columbus 5, Detroit 2