A Log for the Hot Stove: Minnesota Twins Add J.J. Hardy

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In both my 2009 postmortem and my 2010 offseason plan, I laid out two key points.

First, the Twins need to accurately deduce what things actually hurt them this year and address them. Second, that thing they needed to address was infield defense.

Congratulations to Bill Smith for absolutely nailing this one.

J.J. Hardy was the player I most wanted the Twins to add. He's a plus defender, historically a decent hitter, and being traded at the absolute bottom of his value. Seriously, at no point could the Twins have gotten him for less than they did now.

It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that the Twins made an attempt to get Hardy, what surprises me is a) that they were able to do it before the Red Sox outbid them and b) they were able to acquire him without giving up pitching.

Speculation had Hardy's price set somewhere around the Kevin Slowey range, which turned out to be much more than the Brewers would receive.

My first inclination is that this was an outstanding deal. Upon reflection, I've tempered my opinion a little, but am still quite pleased with this move if only for this reason: Smith accurately gauged what the Twins needed and got the best player available who fits that need.

I see the deal pretty much in the Twins favor, but perhaps a little fairer than previously thought.

Received: J.J. Hardy

The 27-year old righty is one of the best defensive shortstops in major league baseball. Over the last three years he has posted the highest combined UZR at the position with a combination of excellent range and good decision-making leading to few errors.

That fact alone made this a smart addition for the Twins, but Hardy is no Adam Everett, he can swing the stick a little as well.

Hardy was an All-Star in 2007 when he hit .277/.323/.463 with 26 HR and 30 2B, but he was even better in 2008 when he hit .283/.343/.478 with 24 HR and 31 2B. If he had continued that production (3.1 and 5.9 wins, respectively), I promise you that no matter how good Alcides Escobar seemed to be, Hardy wouldn't have been moved for someone as enigmatic as Carlos Gomez, if he was moved at all. But 2009 was a down year, and by down I mean "demoted to AAA midseason" down.

Hardy will readily admit that 2009 was bad, and it was: .229/.302/.357 with 11 HR and 16 2B, a 3% increase in K-rate, and a decrease in Line Drive rate all contributed to a year that was extremely disappointing both for Hardy and for the Brewers.

Aside from the ups-and-downs that every player experiences, there is reason to believe that Hardy will rebound.

First, his BABIP (a good indicator of how lucky a hitter was) fell 42 points from an above average .306 to a well-below average .264. It should rise to or near his career rate of .280, which is about league average.

Second, his walk rate rose to a near career high meaning that while Hardy was hitting a lot less, he was still getting on base at a passable rate. If his BA recovers at all and he maintains this walk rate, his OBP will rise fairly quickly.

One thing that has remained constant is his power, his career ISO of .166 is well above what would get from any of the players currently on the roster at his position and isn't likely to be a mirage created by Miller Park.

Hardy hit a little better with home cooking, but not in such a way as to indicate that he'll suffer greatly from the switch. Add in that Miller Park was the fourth friendliest pitchers park and any worries there should be allayed.

If Hardy gets close to his 2007/2008 levels, the Twins will have stolen this deal. If he hits, as I suspect he will, something like .270/.320/.400 with around 20 HR and 20+ 2B while playing Gold Glove defense, that will still be a considerable upgrade over anything the Twins have had at that position in a long time.

Hardy may well be a long term answer, if the Twins are pleased with his 2010 contribution, a two or three year deal wouldn't surprise me one bit.

It's worth noting that he is due a raise during arbitration, but as John noted in the video, he isn't going to trot out his '09 numbers and expect to rake it in. You can't get something for nothing these days, so let's see what the Twins gave up.

Sent: Carlos Gomez

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