Spread 'Em: Week Nine NFL Picks

As the NFL begins its second half, parity has been thrown out the window.

It seems that, week in and week out, there are clear-cut favorites and underdogs in more than half of the games played. There are few bizzare point spreads on a weekly basis.

Outside of the 6-1 Denver Broncos being underdogs every week (including this one), there are very few head-scratching favorites and underdogs. Also, the double-digit favorites are easier to pick because the underdogs are, for the most part, so overwhelmingly bad.

At the halfway point of the season, following a brutal 5-8 showing in week eight, I’m 20 games over .500 thus far (68-48), and hoping to keep making the right picks down the stretch.

Despite how well I’ve done so far, remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I’m not perfect. I never will be.

If you’re a faithful reader, you know by now that I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…well…I’d suggest John Clayton of ESPN, but he picked Denver to go 3-13, or something like that, so I don’t know if mainstream media analysis is the best option.

Here now are the Week Nine picks, with the home team in bold .

Kansas City (+6.5) over Jacksonville

Theoretically, the Jaguars should roll over the Chiefs. Everything points to a Jacksonville win, supposedly.

Kansas City doesn’t stop the run well, and the Jags have one of the most dynamic running backs in football: Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have more overall talent, and they’re playing at home, as well.

However, probably against my better judgment, I’m going with my gut, and taking the Chiefs. With Larry Johnson suspended, Kansas City won’t have any choice but to give Jamaal Charles the bulk of the carries at running back, and he may be more talented than Johnson at this point. As I showed last week, betting on a feeling instead of statistics can be hazardous to your wallet. Maybe I’m toxic right now, but I’m going with the feeling here, anyway.

Jaguars 21, Chiefs 18

Cincinnati (+3) over Baltimore

The Ravens would love to avenge their three-point loss to the Bengals at home from earlier in the season. Cedric Benson ran for 120 yards in that game, and Carson Palmer threw a TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to win it.

In the minds of the Ravens, it was a bit of a fluky win. However, the Bengals outgained the Ravens, held the ball for 10 more minutes, and allowed just one offensive TD to the Ravens. The score was close, but the Bengals were the better team on that day.

While it’s entirely possible that the Ravens are back on track after defeating Denver last week, the Bengals will be coming off their bye week, and are hosting this game. At this time of year, these could be big factors in deciding which team wins. I’m taking the Bengals.

Bengals 21, Ravens 17

Houston (+9) over Indianapolis

Since 2002, the Texans are 1-13 against the Colts. Currently 5-3, and posing the only legitimate threat to challenge Indianapolis in the AFC South at this point, the Texans have a lot to prove coming into this game.

The Colts, sitting at 7-0 and fresh off a tough win over the 49ers last week, will be well-prepared and motivated to widen their lead in the AFC South, and continue to hold  the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC as the NFL approaches the halfway point in the season.

Both Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub should have big games for their teams. The key to the game will be how the running backs fare. Neither team has done well running the football all season.

Ryan Moats did a nice job filling in for Steve Slaton last week, and he could seize the starting job with another big performance this week. Meanwhile, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown have posted pedestrian numbers while splitting carries for Indianapolis. The team that has the best running back will win this game. I’ll take the hot hand and ride the Texans in this one.

Texans 21, Colts 20

Atlanta (-10) over Washington

After a stretch in which they’ve played four of their last five games on the road, the Falcons come home to face a reeling Washington Redskins team.

As tempting as it is to pick against the double-digit favorite here, I’m taking the Falcons. They’ve been getting skewered in the media lately because of their struggles, and I’ve fallen into that trap a bit. Their three losses have all come on the road, and against playoff-contending teams (New England, Dallas,