Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week Eight, Falcons @ Saints

John McCurdy by Scribe Written on November 01, 2009
SAN FRANCISCO - OCTOBER 11:  Jason Snelling #44 of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball during their game against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park on October 11, 2009 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

We're a full day away, and yet I already know what song will be stuck in my head tomorrow:

Dun dun dun dunnn...

(Da dun, da dun, da dun)...

Bum bum bum bum bum bummm...

And from that, I suppose you've gathered that, aside from the fact that I'm a young Frank Sinatra with my singing voice, the Dirty Birds will be doing battle on 2008's No. 1-ranked cable TV show. What a terrific chance to catch my Falcs in primetime and actually, I don't know, do some work on Sunday afternoon!

But that's about where my excitement ends, considering who Atlanta faces. I'm just going to let the facts do the talking.

 

New Orleans Rush Offense vs. Atlanta Rush Defense

That's funny. Is NFL.com's stats page messed up or something? Because every offensive category I click on, the New Orleans Saints appear on top.

Gee whiz, I was expecting this for the passing categories, but I did not realize just how well-rounded this attack is.

Looking specifically at what they do in the run game, we've got three threats to deal with—and that's about one-and-a-half too many, judging by how we've played on ground D so far this season. Yes, we controlled the Dolphins, who since have emerged as an OK team, but they didn't (and can't) vary the attack the way the Saints can.

Mike Bell's punishing downhill style softens things up for Pierre Thomas, and then Reggie Bush comes in to screw up your plans once you think you've got everything figured out.

I guess I can take this away: I was right in one of my preseason articles that Bush won't ever be a feature back.

But that doesn't really matter when his team is killing it like it is right now, does it?

I wrote on this site a week ago, and still believe in it: Jamaal Anderson's switch to tackle is going to continue to help in "stuffage" (I'm a genius when it comes to making up words, in case you haven't noticed). He showed good footwork on a couple of plays last week, once snatching Marion Barber from behind at the line when he might have otherwise picked up seven, eight, or 15 yards.

Of course, we also allowed Tony Romo 31 yards on the ground, a staggering number considering my evaluation of the man's scrambling technique.

Anyways, in case you've yet to gather what I think is going to happen in this particular unit matchup, I'll just regurgitate a few digits for you:

The Saints are third in the league in rushing yards per game, tied for first in rushing touchdowns, and tops in total points despite already having had their bye week. The Falcons are tied for 26th in average yards allowed per rushing play.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense vs. New Orleans Rush Defense

Despite my frustration with Week Seven's end result, all thing considered, the run game did seem to take a step forward. Michael Turner ended up with 50, but Jason Snelling (remember me begging for more playing time for him?) got 68 and helped us actually best the 'Boys in terms of overall yardage.

Still, there's the undeniable fact that Dallas is just a middle-of-the-road defensive team, while the Saints are, all of a sudden, very solid stoppers.

Wait, did I just say that? For everything I got right in that aforementioned preseason article, it appears there's something I'm eating my words on...

For a team that guns it like Nawlins does, you wouldn't expect such stalwart play, but it's all too true.

I predicted the Scotts (Shanle and Fujita) to again rise to the occasion, but underestimated just how well Jonathan Vilma would play in his homecoming. And then there's that darned secondary, which includes two-thirds of the Saints' top six tacklers.

Specifically, I'm afraid of Roman Harper and his four tackles for loss. I also look at Snelling and Turner, two top-heavy guys, against fast fellas like Harper and Jabari Greer, and I cringe at the mental picture of our backs just toppling when the smaller corners and safeties nip at their heels.

It could potentially be a long night.

In terms of factors in our favor, I might mention that Saints tackle Sedrick Ellis is out, but I'd just get laughed at. "Backup" (not for long!) Anthony Hargrove is just as dangerous, if not more.

Still, allow me to give credit to offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey for getting creative (and getting results) last week. Who knows, maybe Snelling is the solution and will start to open things up for the Burner as the season goes along.

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written on November 01, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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