In the second edition of this season BCS rankings, No. 6 TCU jumped ahead of Boise State, as the Broncos fell down to No. 7.

Boise State still owns a healthy lead in the human polls (up one in the Coaches' Poll and up two in the Harris), but was killed by the computers (No. 8 overall).

This was largely a foreseen circumstance as many had analyzed Boise State's schedule and called it a weak at best and a one-game season at worst.

Of course, Boise State's last loss was to TCU in their incredible bowl matchup last year.

So, does Boise State have any real chance of passing up TCU to secure an automatic berth to a BCS bowl?

Or does Boise State just need to sit back and hope that TCU loses or that the BCS takes two non-automatic qualifiers this year?

Let's take a closer look.

 

How Did We Get Here?

TCU finished last season as the consensus No. 7 after defeating Boise State in the Poinsetta Bowl. Boise State finished at No. 11 in the AP and No. 13 in the USA Today Coaches' Poll.

Inexplicably, TCU started this season at No. 17 in both the AP and the Coaches' Poll.  Meanwhile, Boise State started off the season at No. 14 in the AP and No. 16 in the Coaches' Poll. I guess they should be glad not to be Cincinnati and start the season unranked.

While teams like Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, and Texas are automatically assumed to be as good as they were the year before and start off the season in the top 10, teams from outside major players in the Big Six are lucky even to be ranked in the preseason polls, even when they return much of their talent from very successful teams.

Even worse, teams like LSU start off the season with top 10 rankings even when they finished the previous season unranked. 

It creates an enormous mountain for outsider teams to overcome part of the inherent difficulty that outsiders face in reaching the BCS title game.

 

The Season Starts

Of course, Boise's big win over Oregon rightly bumped Boise State up, going to No. 11 and No. 12. TCU advanced to No. 16 with a bye week. Both schools remained behind fellow would-be buster BYU, who notched a huge win over then-No. 3 Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

For Boise State, the win over the Ducks opened a door to a BCS win. Few observers expected the Broncos to be challenged in any of their other games, an observation that has largely proven correct so far.

 

Week Two

TCU opened with a solid win at Virginia, holding the Wahoos scoreless for 55 minutes.  However, this win lost some of its luster in Week One as Virginia lost at home to a FCS school.

Boise advanced with a win over a MAC school to reach a consensus No. 10 ranking.  TCU slid up to No. 15 in both polls.

 

Week Three

Week Three created a huge opening for both schools, as BYU fell inexplicably at home to Florida State.

Boise State defeated WAC rival Fresno State in an exciting game.  TCU rolled over its FCS opponent at home. 

The Broncos jumped to No. 8 in both polls, essentially taking over for BYU as primary BCS buster, while TCU languished at No. 14 and No. 15.

 

Week Four

TCU won a hard-fought contest in Death Valley during a monsoon against Clemson, while Boise State went to Bowling Green and had another convincing win.

Boise State jumped all the way to No. 5 in both the Coaches' Poll and the newly-released Harris Poll, as well as the AP.  

TCU became reached No. 10 in the AP and Coaches' Polls and No. 11 in the Harris Poll.

TCU was 303 votes behind the Broncos in the AP, 216 in the Coaches Poll, and 606 in the Harris.

 

Week Five

TCU defeated its local rival, SMU, in another rainstorm, pulling away in the second half.  Boise hosted a FCS school and scored a touchdown in the final minutes to make the final score more respectable.

Boise State remained at No. 5 in the Harris and TCU advanced to No. 10, but the gap closed to only 472 votes, a gain of 134 votes for TCU.

Boise State fell back in the Coaches' Poll to No. 6 and TCU advanced to No. 9. The gap narrowed to 168 votes, a gain of 48 votes.

TCU also made up ground in the AP, as the Frogs rose to only 245 votes behind the Broncos.

 

Week Six

With Boise State having a bye week, TCU travelled to icy and windy conditions at Air Force, where the game time temperature was somewhere around 19 degrees.

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