Brock Lesnar-Shane Carwin Postponement Spotlights Big UFC Issue: Too Many Events

With Monday's surprise announcement that UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar's match with Shane Carwin was postponed due to an undisclosed illness, a major flaw in the UFC's business model was once again exposed.

While still hot, the UFC is putting on way too many events, thinning out the talent levels on the shows, giving fans weak PPV main events, and putting them in a terrible spot when having to adjust to situations like the Lesnar one.

I love mixed martial arts as much as anyone, but we're at the saturation point. There is more original and re-aired UFC programming than ever before, both on Spike and PPV. Strikeforce has their major events every two months and then Challengers events to fill in around those.

WEC runs several times a year. When you add in the Japanese organizations, you can literally find enough MMA to fill your plate every night of the week if you have patience, Internet, and a DVR.

For the sake of this argument, let's focus on the UFC—the same group who plans to put on 20 events in 2010, or the equivalent of one every week for five straight months. When you add in the other organizations, we could see almost 60 to 70 percent of next year's weekly calendar with fresh MMA. Holy shnikes.

Some of you are probably saying, "What are you complaining about? I love MMA and can't get enough!"

Well, these three things really stand out to me:

Depth of Talent on Shows

One of the UFC's major selling points to viewers during the start of the boom period was awesome top-to-bottom cards with strong matches and established talent. While the UFC's ability to sell personalities and the brand itself has helped overcome obstacles with putting lesser names on the main shows, the events they've been putting on are weaker than they were a year ago.

Wouldn't you rather buy a PPV with five awesome matches than one with two awesome fights and three average ones? I'd be willing to sacrifice two months off without an event if that meant the one I was paying to see was going to be that much better.

They've managed to avoid the boxing model of one huge event and a bunch of awful fights, but they're slipping due to the amount of cards they have to fill.

Case in point: this past weekend's UFC 104. While the Lyoto Machida/Shogun Rua title match may not have been the sexiest main event in history, look at the card it was anchoring: Cain Velasquez/Ben Rothwell as your second top match? No.

Joe Stevenson/Spencer Fisher? Great opener for a loaded card. Anthony Johnson/Yoshiyuki Yoshida? A great Spike TV match. The Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer match shouldn't have made TV at all.

Less shows means less matches you are forced to make, and stronger cards overall. There is also a point to be made about whether the guys who are challenging for a title have truly earned their shot as opposed to being put in a match because the UFC needs a main event. Did Rua earn that shot Saturday or should it really have been Rashad Evans getting a rematch? Or Rampage Jackson? Or even Forrest Griffin?


Weak Main Events

This one kills me. Your main event is supposed to be the obvious big draw. That's why guys like Lesnar and Georges St. Pierre are pushed so heavily: People want to pay to see them fight.

But when I see UFC 103 with Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort on top or UFC 105 with Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera as the main event, I cringe—not because I don't want to see those fights—but because those aren't UFC-quality main events that we are used to seeing.

Like it or not, there is a definite lack of big money draws in the UFC right now. While there is plenty of top talent (Anderson Silva, BJ Penn, Griffin, Evans, etc.), the money is really made in the matchups.

Again, it's a function of having to fill too many events, but I really liked the days when a main event meant something. Does Couture/Vera get you excited? Me neither. I understand it's on Spike, but if you take a step back, there is no reason Couture should be fighting on cable TV. He can still earn money as part of a bigger card, but they needed the name to justify a main event. That's a bad practice to get into.

Because of injuries, other matches get moved around, which further hurts the possibility of the matches we do want to see getting made. In a case like Silva vs. Griffin, we benefited as that joined Penn vs. Kenny Florian as a nice one-two punch to headline a show.

That's the exception to the rule, however. Griffin never did get his rematch for the Light-Heavyweight title and with a loss to Tito Ortiz, he could be further away than ever. Had there been less of a need to fill a spot along the way, he probably would have got a rematch against Evans by now, meaning Machida would have had to earn a shot with another couple key fights.

With Lesnar/Carwin now reportedly pushed to January, we're left with Ortiz vs. Griffin II as the main event. Interesting? Yes. Better as a supporting match on the undercard? You bet.

And with 20 events to fill next year and the increased odds of main events getting scrapped due to random injury, you're going to see more lackluster main events that don't draw as much money as they should and more matches that should happen never come to fruition.


UFC Is Not Other Sports and Has No Offseason

I've heard the comparison that Dana White and the Fertitta brothers defend the amount of UFC on TV to college football—another sport that's all over the place on weekends. The only problem with that argument is college football has an offseason while UFC goes year-round.

In today's society, people need a break every now and again. With no real option to have three or four months off like major sports, it's up to White and the Fertittas to err on the side of caution with how much is too much. However, that doesn't feel like it's happening.

Ideally, the UFC would run six PPVs per year with four supporting shows on Spike TV. That's it. That gives them the ability to stack cards and routinely get one million buys per show based on the current popularity and the carryover buzz to the mainstream fans that need persuading.

Then, if a Lesnar situation happens again, you have a legitimate main event likely available to put in its place—either from the undercard or another event if need be.

A key point is that I'm not talking about the lack of interest with hardcore fans like you and me. We're going to watch the shows anyway, regardless of who's fighting, and find some positives among them. But it's the mainstream fans that can make the difference between 600,000 and 1.2 million buys. And on a side note, the hardcore fans should expect the very best at every event. That's why we're so into it to begin with.

There's no better preacher for the sport than a true MMA enthusiast, and if I can tell my friends with a straight face that they are stupid not to watch a certain show, more power to me and to our sport.

Like any other major business, as long as the money is green and keeps coming in, we're going to see more and more and more UFC. Next year is going to be a major milestone for the business and a true indication of just how far the sport has come.

I just hope we see some great fights amidst the clutter that will make it all worth it.

Josh Nason has published MMA, wrestling and boxing blog Ropes, Ring and Cage.com since 2007. He is a contributor to Fight Magazine, Bleacher Report and appears regularly on Fight Network Radio. Follow him on Twitter.