Would The Gang Of 5 Do It Again? Could They leave the MWC for a BCS bid?

In the late 1990's, The gang of 5 (BYU, Utah, Colorado State, Air Force, and Wyoming) hatched a plan to leave the WAC.  They took the three best remaining TV markets/programs in the WAC and broke away to start their own conference.

(The gang of 5 are 5 prestigious, small population state schools who have collectively come to an understanding on the devistating cost of travel on an athletic program and have committed to stay together to minimize costs to try to get their members into the BCS.  They are, in essence, a conference within a conference.)

The flight of the MWC schools left a gutted collection of floundering schools as the "new WAC" with little in common, crippling travel costs, and few options for generating revenue.

The move was condemned by many as illegal, but has managed to stand the test of time.  The MWC now stands as the undisputed strongest non-BCS confernece.

But are they strong enough to become a BCS conference?

The Criteria for conference inclusion in the Bowl Championship series

We know there are fixed guidelines that are in place to evaluate conferences for the admission of conferences for the 2012 season and we know in general the factors being weighed. 

"The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and Southeastern Conferences will have annual automatic qualification for a BCS game through the 2013 regular season, based on mathematical standards of performance during the 2004-2007 regular seasons.

The 2008-2011 regular seasons will be evaluated under the same standards to determine if other conferences will have annual automatic qualification for the games after the 2012 and 2013 regular seasons. The champions of no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths.

If the BCS continues under the same or similar format, conferences will be evaluated on their performances during the 2010-2013 regular seasons to determine which conferences will have automatic qualification for the bowls that will conclude the 2014-2017 regular seasons."

and

"Each conference will be evaluated over a four-year period based on the three elements: the average rank of the highest ranked team, the average rank of all conference teams, and the number of teams in the top 25. Bowls' contractual agreements with host conferences will remain in place."

We don't know any of the specifics though. How wins are weighed and whatnot.  That said, it hasn't stopped people from speculating on that criteria and how conferences are faring in meeting it.

Bleacherreport scribe Crayton is doing a series on the the math. In his latest article in the series he speculates among other things that the MWC is not likely to get in as constructed as last year's strong finish appears to be something of a high water mark.

All numbers used in this report are pulled from his article.

At a year and a half through the current 4 year evalauation period, his math suggests the following.

SEC (0.699)

Big 12 (0.668)

Big Ten (0.582)

Pac-10 (0.505)

ACC (0.492)

Big East (0.486)

MWC (0.468)

with .500 being the assumed cutoff for a conference to move up to BCS membership.

He theorizes that the addition of one reasonable MWC expansion candidates with a top 25 record --- either Boise or Houston --- might push the MWC over the .500 threshold.

I think that is possible, but I consider the math more theoretical than conclusive as (as I understand it) assumptions are being made on how the 3 criterias are being weighed.

Lets assume a Boise addition helps the MWC over the BCS threshold

Let's say the MWC adds Boise as it's 10th member, clears the threshold for BCS inclusion and the MWC gets full automatic qualifier BCS shares in 2012 & 2013.

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