BCS Automatic Qualifications: Part Two

(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

The BCS rankings are out, halfway through the 2009 season. While many people are watching, intrigued at the process by which computer polls can bless or curse certain teams, Some college football fans try and divine what is in the sport's future.

Specifically, many people are curious as to what changes are in store regarding the automatic qualifications (AQs) into the BCS. Two weeks ago, I gave a preliminary analysis of how the conferences stack up against each other in the BCS AQ process.

Here is an updated reference to the conference's AQ ratings. Remember, this takes last year's final BCS and last week's BCS and attempts to extrapolate a rating for the years 2008-2011. A rating of 0.500 is tentatively regarded as the BCS cutoff.

SEC (0.699)

Big 12 (0.668)

Big Ten (0.582)

Pac-10 (0.505)

ACC (0.492)

Big East (0.486)

MWC (0.468)

On the second page, I have attached an exhaustive list of the 120 FBS schools and their average computer ranking from last year and this year. Use the details from the Part One article to construct your own spreadsheet.

The Situation

A common question concerning the BCS conferences is whether or not the current six AQ conferences will change at the next evaluation. Contrary to innuendo supplied by many, including myself, no conference can lose their AQ status until 2013, after analyzing the 2010-2013 seasons.

Because the BCS limits AQ status to only seven conferences, the only question to be answered after the 2011 season is whether a seventh conference will be added.

Currently, no mid-major conference is meeting AQ standards. The Mountain West is closest. The motivation to become a BCS conference is that the conference gets $17 million for sending their champion to a BCS game. This is in contrast to the less than $10 million that is being distributed amongst all mid-major teams, approximately half of the FBS membership.

Can the Mountain West become a BCS conference?

The simple answer is yes. Results like those from 2008 were phenomenal for the conference. Unfortunately, as outstanding as last year's result were, the conference only posted an AQ rating of 0.496. The conference would have to be better each of these next three years to become a BCS conference. Already this year, the Mountain West is failing to meet their 2008 numbers.

The more complex answer is yes, with help. Two thirds of the AQ formula deal with the BCS Top 25. Adding a team that enhances the Mountain West's numbers in the Top 25 would be a boon to the conference.

Which mid-majors (outside the MWC) have placed in the Top 25? Boise State placed ninth last year and is currently fourth in the BCS. Ball State finished in 21^st last year, but is probably too far from the Mountain West to be considered. Houston is currently ranked 17^th in the BCS.

Would these teams help the conference? Adding only these teams, the MWC rating would improve as such:

Boise State (0.585)

Houston / Ball St (0.505)

No other team would put the Mountain West over the top.

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