Trendspotting: Will Maurice Jones-Drew Keep It Up?

The Trendspotting articles have been a series on the thunderingblurb.com website this season where we look at various players and try to decide whether they will keep up their stats and production (or in some cases, get them back on track) or if they are candidates for a down-turn.

After a brief break, they're back with a look at Marucie Jones-Drew, running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I'll be the first to admit that I had a bunch of concerns about Maurice Jones-Drew coming into this season. Most of those concerns—regarding his size, weight and their impact on his durability as well as the fact that he has never carried the ball as many times as the Jaguars want him to—are things which take a whole season to play out.

I felt he was still a top ten back. Six weeks in, he's not only that but a top two back. The top back in some leagues.

However, while his overall numbers are very good his week to week numbers have fallen flat a few times.

A quick look at his overall games (credit to footballguys.com for supplying the stats ) shows a few games where his owners might have struggled.

WK		OPP	RSH	YD	TD	TARG	REC	YD	TD	FPT
1		IND	21	97	1	8	5	26	0	18.3
2		ARI	13	66	0	7	4	17	0	8.3
3		HOU	23	119	3	7	4	28	0	32.7
4		TEN	6	14	1	3	3	26	0	10.0
5		SEA	12	34	0	5	5	23	0	5.7
6		STL	33	133	3	7	5	45	0	35.8
TOT			108	463	8	37	26	165	0	110.8

Looking at the numbers I was struck by how inconsistent the production has been. His big games are big—very few backs have had games like that this season, much less more than one.

On the other hand, he’s had a few subpar games to alternate with those huge games.

What is going on with Jones-Drew? Is there a cause for concern? What is causing the yo-yoing production?

In this week's Trendspotting, we look at the diminutive back and examine whether his owners need to sell high—or if the rest of us need to buy.

While I was working on the research for this, I did something a little different and threw out a post in the Footballguys forums to take the temperature of his owners and see what people felt might be going on if anything. You can check out response here, but I found very little worry for his prospects and some thoughts on the up and down production which mirrored what I was already thinking.

A few people are selling high(ish) and a few are looking to buy but overall his owners are patient and calm.

Good stuff there though and I encourage you to check it out.

And why shouldn't his owners be patient. The overall picture in fantasy right now is one of struggling first round running backs.

Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Steve Slaton—all are players taken in the first who have had issues in the first six weeks. We could add folks like Tom Brady and Randy Moss (Week Six fireworks notwithstanding) as well. 

So it isn't a reach to say that Jones-Drew has more than been worth his pick, along with the other survivor of the first round, Adrian Peterson. 

I took a look at the many leagues I am in (mostly PPR leagues, but some not) and Jones-Drew is the top back in many of them. You can't be upset when so many other studs have fallen flat.

What about those down games? Well, first consider that in the above graph from FBG's player page, eight and ten points are not tragic totals (and do not include PPR points). Disappointing? Perhaps. 

Looking closer though, Jones-Drew ran into things that may have shut down the production for many of the backs in the same situation.

As Sigmund Bloom points out in the thread, both the Arizona and Seattle games he was hamstrung by an early deficit. Looking at those two games, Jones-Drew got his usual amount of catches as well—between four and five which is right at his average so far. Against Arizona he still compiled a nice 83 yards total. 

While the Seattle game didn't even have that going for it, there hasn't been a back this year who didn't put up lackluster points once.

Still, that game highlights one problem with Jones-Drew—or rather his situation. For whatever reason, the line has not been able to create enough room for him to run. It could be starting two rookies on the line, it could be an echo of the adversity the squad faced last season.

Luckily, Jones-Drew has proven himself to be that special breed of back who can overcome weakness around him. In the tradition of LaDainian Tomlinson, Barry Sanders and Steven Jackson, Jones-Drew is a back who transcends situation. Now, that doesn't mean I don't have concerns (which we'll touch on in a minute) but it does say that regardless of his team he will make positive yards most of the time.

One thing owners have to love is the propensity of the Jaguars to give him the rock in the red zone.

A quick look at the numbers show Jones-Drew has gotten more looks than ANYONE else on the team and by a huge margin. In fact, of 71 total red zone looks, Jones-Drew has been 'the man' on 30 of them. The next closest is quarterback David Garrard with 21. After that it is a huge dip to the surprising Mike Sims-Walker who has seven.

Of his eight touchdowns, all but one are short yardage/goal line scores. He can still break a long one on occasion (as evidenced by his 61 yards touchdown against the Texans in Week Three) but you know that the team will nearly always give him the rock in the red.

Mind you, so does the opposition. That's true of many stud backs though, so really you're looking for opportunity and Jones-Drew gets plenty of it.

You also have to like some of his upcoming schedule. The Titans aren't scaring anyone, Kansas City, Buffalo, Texans and Colts can all be run on. The Jets are reeling—we'll see how they are in a few weeks but they aren't an immovable object, especially without NT Kris Jenkins.

They aren't all easy matchups but it's not an awful schedule.

The only concern I have with Jones-Drew is no different than what I was worried about in August: can he hold up to the workload?

As much as he hasn't carried the ball 30 times every game, he has already racked up 108 carries. His first three years the total number of carries were 197 (2008), 167 (2007) and 166 (2006). 

He's already more than halfway to the most carries he has ever had in his NFL career. I'm not even adding the catches, which he should easily eclipse as well this season. 

Jones-Drew has never carried the ball as often as he will this season (barring injury). So my biggest concern remains, will he be able to keep it up all season.

The team is not forcing either Greg Jones or Rashard Jennings into the mix with great frequency. This is Jones-Drew's team, it is not a running back by committee nor does it show any signs of becoming one.

It is a hard—and honestly very dicey—to try a predict injury. Many people do—I'm not one of them. But we have seen backs fade as a season goes. If Jones-Drew had carried the ball 250+ times at least once in college (as other slight backs have—most notably Barry Sanders who for some reason people love to point out to me was a smaller back who never had injury issues) I'd be less concerned.

He hasn't though and any owner or analyst should at least be a little concerned as the season progresses if he continues on a pace to pass 300 carries (and probably 350 touches total including catches). He's never done it before—that doesn't mean he can't and there is a first time for everything. There aren't many things more season killing though than to have a stud back wear out as you hit the Fantasy Playoffs.

Am I saying sell high? Am I guaranteeing an injury or dip in production?

No, not at all. I wouldn't sell Jones-Drew and if I ran across an owner who was looking to part ways, I would see what I could do to acquire him.

What I am saying is, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you own Jones-Drew, make sure you have back-ups you would be comfortable rolling with into the playoffs. It's not ground-breaking advice and further, it applies to just about any stud back.

With his lack of history though, it's more critical than doing so for a guy like Peterson.

Otherwise though, if you're an owner of Maurice Jones-Drew, it may be a slightly bumpy ride but it's also one that could help you towards a championship.