
NFL Playoff Picture 2018: Wild-Card Odds, Picks and Matchup Scenarios
Eight teams enter the NFL's Wild Card Round with a Lombardi Trophy on the mind.
The journey begins here for those teams who came up shy of a first-round bye. Some traveled interesting paths, like that of an up-and-down Kansas City Chiefs team pulling it back together when it mattered most. Others, such as the Buffalo Bills, got carried into the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade on the back of another team's Week 17 performance.
Regardless of how they got here, a new season begins Saturday with a matchup from each conference and bleeds into Sunday, when the victors will move one step closer to the hardware while turning their attention to well-rested contenders.
Here's a look at the overarching Wild Card Round layout.
Wild Card Weekend
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Odds: Kansas City (-9), O/U 44
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Titans 17
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
Date and Time: Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Odds: LA Rams (-6.5), O/U 48.5
Prediction: Rams 27, Falcons 20
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Date and Time: Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Odds: Jacksonville (-9), O/U 39.5
Prediction: Bills 24, Jaguars 20
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Date and Time: Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Odds: New Orleans (-7), O/U 48.5
Prediction: Saints 33, Panthers 30
Full playoff bracket and scenarios available here.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
The Tennessee Titans are one of the more underwhelming playoff teams.
The Titans started 2-3, rattled off four in a row—in large part thanks to games against Indianapolis and Cleveland—and then finished the season losing three of four but making the playoffs anyway.
In the process, quarterback Marcus Mariota never looked right after a nagging injury, throwing more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13). Of the team's three losses near the end of the season, two came against the downtrodden Arizona Cardinals (8-8) and San Francisco 49ers (6-10).
"We had a number of chances to get ourselves in, but unfortunately we had to wait until the last one to do it," Titans coach Mike Mularkey said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "I don't know if that made it better, but it's a good feeling."
These Chiefs got a nod in the intro for a wild season—yet they at least turned it on down the stretch. Andy Reid's team won five games in a row to start the season, trumping contenders like the New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers in the process. They turned around and lost six of seven before rattling off four victories in a row to close the season.
Kansas City only allows 21.2 points per game this year, yet more impressive is the Alex Smith-led offense. He completed 67.5 percent of his passes with 26 touchdowns against five interceptions over what amounted to a trial by fire, with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings and a more vertical offense than usual, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:
"The @Chiefs' Alex Smith led the NFL with 17 completions on passes thrown at least 30 yards downfield this season.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 3, 2018"
He totaled 16 such completions from 2013 to 2016.
Such is the difference here in Saturday's showdown—the Titans rank fourth against the rush while only allowing 88.8 yards per game. But the team ranks 25th against the pass and is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to passing yards permitted to running backs.
This makes Kareem Hunt not only a problem on the ground—he had 1,327 yards and eight touchdowns on a 4.9 yards-per-carry average during the regular season—but also via his prowess through the air, which he displayed while catching 53 of his 63 targets for 455 yards and three scores.
With DeMarco Murray struggling to get healthy, Mariota mostly ineffective and this one going down in Kansas City, look for the Chiefs to pull out ahead and never look back.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Titans 17
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
This isn't exactly what most would have predicted as a playoff matchup before the season, yet here we are.
Most figured the Atlanta Falcons could make it back, and they did—despite finishing third in the NFC South. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a down year, with 20 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, but a running game averaging 4.3 yards per carry and a defense surprisingly only allowing 19.7 points per game has the team thinking about winning it all.
This outlook wouldn't be so bad if running back Devonta Freeman hadn't suffered a knee injury in Week 17. It doesn't sound like he will be held out of the game, but if he's not 100 percent, it hurts the Falcons to lose a guy who has 865 yards and seven touchdowns on the season.
And it especially hurts against the Rams.
The Los Angeles Rams only allow 20.6 points per game and boast 48 sacks, 18 interceptions and 17 forced fumbles. They won the NFC West with an 11-victory campaign, winning two of three to close the season and outright taking down notables such as the Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints.
The Jared Goff-led offense gets most of the attention. Rightfully so, as Goff looked like a different player this season, throwing for 3,804 yards and 28 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Behind him, Todd Gurley looked like an MVP contender while piling up 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Goff has come so far he doesn't sound concerned about the game against the Falcons, according to the Rams on Twitter: "You may have that little pit in your stomach at the beginning of the game, but it's no different than any other game for me, honestly."
With Ryan sitting on only four touchdowns and interceptions over his past four games and his lead back limping, it's hard to see the Falcons putting up enough points to win this one. Gurley can squat on the ball and dominate the clock at home, hence the oddsmakers favoring the Rams by a notable margin.
Prediction: Rams 27, Falcons 20
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