Philadelphia (-14.0) 28 OAKLAND 10
The Raiders' offense is historically bad right now, averaging just 3.7 yards per play, and the solid defense started showing cracks last week in New York and now rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average. Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the NFL, rating 0.8 yppl better than average on offense and 1.0 yppl better than average on defense while also having solid special teams play and a quarterback in Donovan McNabb who is the all-time leader in lowest interception percentage.
My math model favors Philly by 30 points if they play at their normal high level for 60 minutes (although my ratings only favor Philly by 24 points), but that is not likely given the obvious letdown here. Philly applies to a 29-75-5 ATS road letdown situation and a 9-33-1 ATS double-digit road favorite letdown angle while Oakland applies to an 80-35-4 ATS situation that plays on bad teams after losing by 20 points or more and there is nowhere to go but up for the Raiders.
My math model hasn't done as well picking on big road favorites, since they're generally in a letdown situation, but I have to favor the Eagles to cover in this game despite the negative situation.
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