WASHINGTON (-6.5) 21 Kansas City 14
Washington has been out-scored by an average of 14.6 points to 16.4 points while playing a schedule that is 5.6 points easier than average. While it appears by those numbers that the Redskins are a well below average team that is simply not likely to be the case going forward. Washington has had trouble turning their yards into points, which is why they've averaged a solid 5.3 yards per play (the league average) yet have averaged 6.6 points less than the league average.
While Washington's play calling in the red zone needs to improve, research shows that past scoring efficiencies are not that highly correlated with future scoring efficiencies, which simply means that the Redskins not being able to score in the red zone is most likely random variance rather than a problem that will persist (at least at the extreme level it has). With that being the case, Washington actually looks like an average NFL team based on their compensated stats, as the Skins have out-gained their opponents 5.3 yppl to 4.9 yppl and rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl better than average on defense (they've faced a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).
Kansas City is winless with an offense that has managed just 4.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and a defense that yields 6.2 yppl (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense), but winless teams can be good bets in the right circumstances and last week's good effort in the overtime loss to Dallas is a good omen. In fact, winless teams (0-5 or worse) are 28-8 ATS as road underdogs after losing a close game (7 points or less) as an underdog in the most recent game.
The Chiefs also apply to a 101-47-2 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5 game losing streak or more while Washington applies to a negative 43-96-3 ATS situation that plays against losing teams as home favorites of more than 5 points (there's a bit more to that angle than that).
While the technical analysis is clearly on the side of the Chiefs, my ratings favor Washington by 9 points and math model gives the Redskins a 59% chance of covering at -6 1/2 points based solely on the math. This looks like a game to stay away from with the line value on one side and the situation favoring the other side.
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