NFL Passing Attacks as Effective as Ever as Generations Collide

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Tracking the statistical shifts of each NFL season in real time is always a pretty daunting task.

Every season brings new coaches, new players, new schemes, new stadiums, and new situations to impact those who make decisions that determine the outcome of football games.

Take this year: So far, compared to the whole of last year, passing is up while total offensive plays are down, by quite a big margin.

Already, teams are averaging just 51.2 plays per game, compared to 61.9 last season. Is it because there are more penalties, resulting in lost plays? Are teams letting the clock run out more? Are teams just getting fewer plays in because it's early in the season?

And why does passing the ball, even for young quarterbacks who are supposed to need time to adjust to the NFL, seem to be more successful than ever?

These questions are difficult to untangle, as they are the result of so many variables. But let's try to look at the shape of passing in the NFL this year, and maybe detect why it's continuing to rise.

Percentage-wise, teams are passing just one percentage point more this season versus last. That may seem small, but given the thousands of plays that data is based on, it's a pretty significant jump.

This uptick in passing offense may still seem small overall, but take into consideration that it is occurring during an era in the NFL where passing is already as high as it has ever been.

If you look at the career passing leaders in the rate categories (per game, per season, etc.), it's simple to see there are more successful passers now than ever before.

For example, of the Top 20 career leaders in pass attempts per game, 12 are active, 18 were active through most of this generation, and the other two stopped playing in the late 1990s (Marino and Jim Everett).

Of the Top 10 leaders in career passing yards per game, eight are active, though after that it evens out.

Of the Top 20 leaders in career passer rating, 14 are active, two (Trent Green and Jeff Garcia) just stopped playing, and the rest, with the exception of Otto Graham, played pretty late into the 1990s.

It's been a passer's paradise the last decade, but, the way it's shaping up this year, that's been true more than ever.

Even compared to just the last few years, it's easy to see that even if passing isn't necessarily becoming more frequent, it is becoming safer and, thus, a more attractive option for teams.

Let's just compare these stats (via Pro Football Reference) from just the last four years, and see if you can spot the trends:

Interceptions per game: 2006: 1.0; 2007: 1.0; 2008: 0.9; 2009: 0.7;

Percentage of pass attempts intercepted: 2006: 3.2; 2007: 3.1; 2008: 2.8; 2009: 2.6;

Sacks per game: 2006: 2.3; 2007: 2.2; 2008; 2.0; 2009: 1.8;

League  Average QB Rating: 2006: 78.5; 2007: 80.9; 2008: 81.5; 2009: 82.5;

20+ yard completions per pass attempt: 2006: 8.4%; 2007: 7.9%; 2008: 8.2%; 2009: 9.5%;

40+ yard completions per pass attempt: 2006: 1.6%; 2007: 1.4%; 1008: 1.5%; 2009: 1.7%;

Now I may be hallucinating from the 20 proof cough syrup flowing through my veins right now, but I'd say that's some pretty telling evidence that pass plays are dominating the NFL more and more.

Basically what I'm getting at, is that teams are passing about the same (and at about the same completion percentage and yards per attempt) rate, but are becoming more successful, as a whole, in executing their passing offense.

The last two lines above are most telling, to me. Most people might look at the reduction in interceptions and assume, as I first did, that teams are simply calling safer pass plays such as slants, comebacks, curls, outs, screens, etc.

And yet, on average, teams are completing more of their passes further downfield, year after year—especially this year.

Why is this? Well, I'd say that we're experiencing a generational overlap, where the next generation of quality young quarterbacks is stepping into their own, while the previous generation continues to be successful.

Even in the last few years, there has been an influx of quality (or at least dependable) passers in the NFL.

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