To Trade Or Not To Trade Joe Nathan: The Value Of Consistency

(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Anyone who spent more than 15 minutes on a college campus pretty quickly came to the realization that there are many things that seem like a good idea until you try them.

For some, it’s a case race or other manner of spontaneous intoxication. For others it was spending an entire day in the library to get a ton of work done (this seldom worked for me, as I still spent large swaths of time reading old political cartoons or the collected works of Bill Simmons).

These things are often tried on the advice of well-meaning (or perhaps not) friends. It worked for them, so it well might work for you. When an authority figure or peer-review text is the one passing on advice, it seems that much more reliable, but recall: phrenology was a mainstream science for a number of years and look where that got us.

The point here is that in life there are very few one-size-fits-all solutions, and baseball is no different.

Billy Beane helped popularize the idea of the overvaluing of closers by trading Billy Koch and Huston Street for large returns, the practice of which was a critical piece of the economic model popularized by Michael Lewis’ Moneyball.

(Seriously, this has to stop. Billy Beane was featured in Moneyball, but it was not BY him. Michael Lewis kills a puppy every time you forget who wrote his book.)

For teams that are in the rebuilding process, trading away a closer can be a great boon. Teams in the market tend to be win-now oriented and willing to give up future assets for a reliever that can consistently get outs late in the game.

Strictly speaking, “closers” aren’t that useful. The ninth inning may or may not be a nervy time, but it’s a virtual certainty that there will be a point in the game at which three outs and no runs is the order of the day.

Closer usage may be messed up, but the fact remains that a pitcher who can come in in pressure situations to consistently get outs is something that is hugely valuable to any team that is going to have late leads to protect.

Joe Nathan is among the elite closers in the game, a class that includes Mo Rivera, Heath Bell, and few others (Brian Wilson, perhaps). Why no J.J Putz, David Aardsma, Kerry Wood, Bobby Jenks, etc?

You might be able to guess the answer (hint: Italics), but it’s all about consistency. Rivera has been lights-out for years now, so much so that the Yankees basically play eight inning games at home.

It was a virtual certainty that when vintage Trevor Hoffman came into the game, it was over. AC/DC's "Hells Bells" meant that it was time to head for the car in San Diego.

Not so with David Aardsma, who had an outstanding year in Seattle in 2009. He’s been a serviceable reliever for many years, but until recently was hardly the guy you wanted your team to run out there in the late innings of a close game.

Plenty of guys have had one or two incredible seasons, then fallen off the map due to ineffectiveness or injury (Eric Gagne comes to mind).

The Twins should be keenly aware of this consideration as much as any team in baseball. The came into the 2009 season looking at a bullpen which had struggled in early 2008, but locked down opponents for much of the second half.

Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares were supposed to form the late-inning bridge to Joe Nathan and help the Twins keep any lead they managed to get.

Sean Henn, R.A. Dickey, and others were the front end of a ‘pen that should have been an asset to the team from Day One.

That’s not how it went.

The Twins struggled badly in 2009, eventually releasing Breslow, demoting Dickey, trading Henn, DFAing Philip Humber, putting Jesse Crain on the DL. They disposed of bodies in so many different ways, I wouldn’t be all that surprised to find Juan Morillo floating in the Mississippi.

Through all of this, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, and Joe Nathan kept their end of the bargain. Through most of the season, if a lead got to these three, the Twins won the game. All three posted WXRL figures in the top-20 in baseball, making the Twins' bullpen statistically the best unit of any team that reached the playoffs.

Contrary to popular belief, the bullpen’s issues in the playoffs ought to serve to indicate why a top-flight corps is so important.

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