The Biggest X-Factors in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final
It's down to two. The 2017 Stanley Cup Final begins Monday night in Pittsburgh.
The host Penguins are looking to become the first team since the 1997-98 Detroit Red Wings to win back-to-back Stanley Cups, while the Nashville Predators are hoping to ride their franchise's biggest wave of playoff success all the way to a championship.
Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby go into the Final ranked one-two in the postseason scoring race. Both have been named playoff MVPs during the Penguins' previous title runs, and both are looking to earn their third career Stanley Cups.
It'll be fun to see how the two powerhouse centers use their skill and savvy against the impressive Predators defense, but Malkin and Crosby are far from the only intriguing elements in this series.
Here's a look at the other X-factors that could influence the outcome of the 2017 Stanley Cup Final.
Injured Penguins
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At this time of year, injuries pile up for both teams—some long term, and many of the cloak-and-dagger "day to day" variety, as clubs try to keep details close to the vest.
The Penguins' playoff success this season is even more impressive when you consider the players they've been missing.
No. 1 defenseman Kris Letang, who played more minutes than any other player in the 2016 playoffs, has been sidelined since February and had neck surgery in early April.
Starting goaltender Matt Murray missed the first two rounds of the playoffs with a lower-body injury before stepping back in during Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Ottawa Senators.
And Carl Hagelin, who chipped in 16 points as a member of the HBK line last year, has just one goal in 11 games this time around and is playing limited minutes. He's dealing with a lower-body injury that has had him in and out of the lineup.
Along the way, the Pens have also dealt with short-term injuries to defensemen Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz as well as forwards Patric Hornqvist, Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary. Sidney Crosby also sat out one game against the Washington Capitals after suffering a concussion.
Injuries and health issues seem to be a way of life for Pittsburgh, but the Penguins are usually able to find players to fill those holes. That trait becomes more and more valuable as the playoffs grind on.
Injured Predators
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The Penguins may be without their No. 1 defenseman, but the Predators have a hole just as big in their forward lines after losing top center Ryan Johansen due to a dangerous thigh injury following Game 4 against the Anaheim Ducks.
Johansen and his linemates, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson, had been driving the bus offensively for the Predators, as they were the team's three top-scoring forwards at the time of Johansen's injury.
Second-line center Mike Fisher was also injured in Game 4 against Anaheim, but the Predators were able to tap into some depth of their own to win their next two games and finish off the Ducks. Most notably, Colton Sissons' hat trick in Game 6 gave him 10 points in 16 playoff games this year, matching his point total from 58 regular-season games in 2016-17.
Beyond Johansen, the Predators lost promising winger Kevin Fiala for the playoffs after he suffered a broken leg in Game 1 of their second-round series against the St. Louis Blues. Dependable center Colin Wilson also missed the first four games of Nashville's playoff run with a lower-body injury.
Through three rounds, the Predators have already tied an NHL record by using 18 different forwards, according to Thomas Willis of the Predators website. Nashville has advanced in part thanks to game-winning goals off the sticks of unlikely candidates like Pontus Aberg, Vernon Fiddler and Cody McLeod. For the Preds to go all the way, they'll need to keep scoring by committee in the Final.
Innocence vs. Experience
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The Predators are coming into Game 1 with three days more rest than the Penguins—a break that may have helped players heal some of the bumps and bruises that accumulate during a long playoff grind. Nashville can only hope that extra rest will help make up for the team's collective lack of Stanley Cup Final experience.
Pittsburgh is gunning for its second straight Cup with 18 returnees from the team that won it all last year, while the Preds have just one player on their roster that has ever played in a Stanley Cup Final—captain Mike Fisher, with Ottawa back in 2007.
As excited as Nashville is about being four wins away from a championship, this next phase is uncharted territory that carries a brand-new level of intensity and scrutiny.
One year ago, the Penguins' "been there, done that" poise was part of the reason for their success against another first-time Cup finalist, the San Jose Sharks. The Predators have a tough hill to climb as they try to use pure enthusiasm to get past a team that knows exactly what it's doing.
The Ties That Bind
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Only a few common threads tie the Penguins and the Predators together, and some of them stretch all the way to North Carolina.
Both teams feature plenty of yellow in their uniforms. Veteran center Matt Cullen has spent time with both teams. Now in his second year in Pittsburgh, he played for the Predators from 2013 through 2015, and he also played for current Nashville head coach Peter Laviolette when he won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006.
Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford was the GM of that Hurricanes team for 20 years between 1994 and 2014. He brought in Laviolette to replace the fired Paul Maurice during the 2003-04 season, won the Cup with him in 2006 and replaced him in December 2008—with Maurice.
An even deeper bond between the two teams was the 2014 draft-day trade that saw James Neal go to Nashville in exchange for Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling.
Spaling lasted just one season in Pittsburgh—he was one of the pieces that the Pens bundled together to acquire Phil Kessel from the Toronto Maple Leafs in July 2015. But Neal and Hornqvist have both carved out important roles in their three seasons with their new teams.
Neal plays a power forward's game, while Hornqvist is best known for his ability to score garbage goals from just outside the crease. "We traded James Neal, a good player, good goal scorer, but we had enough players that could score," Rutherford told Tim Campbell of NHL.com. "We were looking for that type of passionate player, good team guy, good in the locker room."
Despite the difference in their playing styles, the two wingers have put up remarkably similar stats in the three years since the trade: Neal is 77-59-136 in 219 regular-season games and 13-7-20 in 36 playoff games, while Hornqvist is 68-78-146 in 216 regular-season games and 15-8-23 in 43 playoff games.
Like Cullen, Neal and Hornqvist will have the rare experience of playing against their former teammates for the Stanley Cup. "I don't think that happens too often, so that's going to be a special moment for me," said Hornqvist, who missed Pittsburgh's last six games with an upper-body injury but has been practicing and is set to return for Game 1. "I want to have fun with it."
Filip Forsberg
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Keep an eye on Filip Forsberg in the Stanley Cup Final.
He doesn't turn 23 until August, but Forsberg is already one of the NHL's most dynamic scorers. With two 30-plus-goal campaigns under his belt after just his third full NHL season, he is red hot when he gets on a roll.
February is usually Forsberg's hottest month. In 2015-16, that's when he scored 12 of his 33 goals, including two natural hat tricks over the span of three games—something that hadn't been done in the NHL since 1986. This past season, Forsberg scored 11 goals in February and made the record books again, this time as the first player since 2010 to log back-to-back hat tricks.
We have yet to see what Forsberg can do in June, but he has heated up as the playoffs have progressed. Five of his eight postseason goals came against Anaheim, and he showed no signs of slowing down after Ryan Johansen was injured, collecting three points in Games 5 and 6 against the Ducks.
If Forsberg starts scoring in bunches, the Predators will be tough to stop in the Stanley Cup Final.
Pittsburgh's Defense
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Nashville gets plenty of praise for the excellent players that make up its defensive top four. In Pittsburgh, the situation is just the opposite—you wouldn't think that a core group of Brian Dumoulin, Ron Hainsey, Olli Maatta, Justin Schultz, Trevor Daley and Ian Cole could get the job done in the playoffs.
Without Kris Letang, there's no superstar powering the Penguins blue line, but it hasn't mattered so far. Through three rounds, the Pens are ranked fifth in playoff defense, allowing a respectable 2.32 goals per game. Their challenge now is outdueling Nashville, which ranks first with an impressive 1.81 goals against.
If there's one area where the defending champions could be exposed in this final, it's on the blue line. Despite all of their injuries, the Predators have enough tenacity to get through and make life difficult for Pittsburgh's goaltenders.
Goaltending
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Which team is in a better spot in net? It's hard to say.
For Nashville, 34-year-old Pekka Rinne has played every second of the playoffs so far and has been spectacular. He's focused and hungry, and he might not ever get a better shot at winning a championship.
For Pittsburgh, Matt Murray is back between the pipes, where he backstopped the Penguins to their Stanley Cup last season. Marc-Andre Fleury was tremendous as Murray's fill-in while he was injured, sparking talk that he could be a candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.
Coach Mike Sullivan didn't rush to get Murray back into the lineup. When Fleury faltered in Game 3 against Ottawa, giving up four goals on nine shots, the change was made.
Barring another injury or an uncharacteristic meltdown, Murray will likely take the reins the rest of the way for Pittsburgh. He went 3-1 against Ottawa and has given up just seven goals in 310 minutes of action for a goals-against average of 1.35 and a .946 save percentage. That compares to 2.56 and .924 for Fleury—and 1.70 and .941 for Rinne.
The goaltending battle between Murray and Rinne should be a thriller.
Special Teams
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Postseason hockey is played on the edge, with both teams doing anything and everything to gain any possible physical or psychological advantage.
That's what makes playoff officiating so critical. Players try to get away with whatever they can without drawing a penalty, so special teams success is crucial when those man-advantage opportunities arise.
Pittsburgh's power play has been a key part of its offense—connecting 14 times in 19 games and equally effective at home or on the road, with a success rate of 25 percent. Nashville has been less consistent with the man advantage, clicking 25 percent of the time on the road but on just 7.4 percent of opportunities on home ice at deafening Bridgestone Arena.
Both teams have been averaging close to three power plays a game, but the Predators have scored just seven times in 16 games with the man advantage, led by a pair of goals from Colin Wilson.
If the current patterns hold, Nashville will get its chances. Pittsburgh has given up just under three power plays per game and surrendered eight goals for an 85.5 percent kill rate, while the Preds are finding themselves short-handed just 2.6 times per game and have given up only five power-play goals, boasting an 88.1 percent kill rate.
One thing the Preds will need to watch out for—Pittsburgh isn't afraid to take chances while killing penalties. Jake Guentzel and Matt Cullen each have collected short-handed goals in the playoffs.
All stats courtesy of NHL.com, current through May 28.
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