Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Odds, NBA Betting Pick

The top-seeded Golden State Warriors will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead on the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals as solid road favorites for Game 3 on Saturday. The Warriors moved to 1-1 against the spread in the series with a 136-100 rout in Game 2, covering as 13.5-point home chalk with San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard out.

Point spread: The Warriors opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 212, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Golden State knows that the Spurs simply do not have the players to compete without Leonard on the floor. With Leonard listed as questionable for Game 3, he will not be close to 100 percent if he does return despite having extra rest following Game 2 on Tuesday.

That is a big problem for San Antonio, and the Warriors know it. Stephen Curry was their only player to log 30 minutes, logging 31 and scoring 29 points. Curry will be well-rested along with his other teammates, and that bodes well for them.

Why the Spurs can cover the spread

The Spurs will be leaning on their home court in Game 3 and their role players, who include just about everyone but Leonard. San Antonio power forward LaMarcus Aldridge struggled in Game 2 with only eight points on 4-of-11 shooting from the field, and bettors can expect him to take twice as many attempts in Game 3 as the main scoring option. Aldridge scored 28 in the series opener and had averaged 24.4 points in his previous five games.

The Spurs would be smart to attempt to slow down the tempo as well, with Golden State averaging 92.5 points in its last two losses to them.

Smart betting pick

Leonard's status is obviously worth monitoring here. But the fact that he would still be hobbled with an ankle injury if he does indeed play makes it hard to count on him to be a big factor anyway.

That said, San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich is the best in the business and will find a way to keep this game competitive. His team is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread on the Vegas lines at home in the postseason. Watch for the Spurs to improve at least one of those marks, if not both.

NBA betting trends

The over is 4-1 in the last five games between Golden State and San Antonio.

Golden State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in its last three games against San Antonio.

San Antonio is 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.