Indianapolis (-3.5) 27 TENNESSEE 19
Tennessee applies to a very good 52-14-1 ATS scheduling situation, a 25-4-2 ATS week 5 situation, and a 94-45-4 ATS statistical profile indicator while Indianapolis applies to a negative 29-74-6 ATS situation that is based on their recent high scoring victories. That's some pretty strong technical analysis favoring the Titans in this game, but the math strongly favors the Colts. Indianapolis is playing at an incredible level with Peyton Manning having perhaps his best season ever (9.5 yards per pass play) for an offense that is averaging 7.3 yards per play.
The Colts are also playing consistently well defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl or less in every game they've played and just 4.5 yppl for the season despite facing some pretty good offensive teams. Tennessee, meanwhile, is 0-4 despite out-gaining their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.5 yppl, as their -5 turnover ratio has hurt them in close losses.
Tennessee is still a better than average team but the Colts are playing on another level and I'm not going to buck them as long as they're playing this well.
My math model, using this year's games only, favors the Colts by 16 1/2 points and my ratings favor Indy by 7 1/2 points. I'll favor the Colts to cover despite the strong situational analysis favoring the Titans.
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