Opportunity, Confidence and Strength: The Formula for Justin Jackson's Star Turn

You don't really see a difference when you look at him. North Carolina's Justin Jackson is still as skinny as a beanpole. Long limbs and torso on a body that just doesn't look able to add bulk.

But Jackson is different this season, even if you cannot see it at first glance.

He gained 17 pounds from the NBA combine to the start of the season—from 193 to 210 pounds—with a diet that included five to six meals a day combined with hitting the weight room on a daily basis.

"I got sick of watching him have to eat," his father, Lloyd Jackson, said of Justin's offseason routine.

Now opponents are getting sick of watching Jackson drain jumpers.

Jackson's strength has transformed his game. For two years, he was a complementary piece for the Tar Heels who rarely hunted for buckets and was limited by his lack of a consistent three-point jumper.

This season, Jackson is a three-point marksman—burying a career-best 39.3 percent beyond the arc—and he's become the go-to star on one of the best teams in college basketball, entering Saturday's game against rival Duke as the favorite for ACC Player of the Year.

The difference is a simple formula: opportunity plus confidence and strength.

Jackson arrived in Chapel Hill with a beautiful jump shot and a treasure chest of skills.

"He's always been a smart player who knew how to work off the ball, knew how to pass, knew how to cut and knew how to make an array of floaters and shots around the basket," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report.

Scout.com ranked Jackson as the 10th-best prospect in his class and he was the co-MVP of the 2014 McDonald's All-American game.

Jackson was not a disappointment his first two seasons. He was a starter both years, including last season when the Heels made the national title game. But he performed below his own expectations and often deferred to upperclassmen like Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige. He's also watched every other player ranked in the top 15 of his class have more immediate individual success and leave for the NBA.  

	MPG	PPG	APG	RPG
2014-15	26.7	10.7	2.3	3.7
2015-16	28.4	12.2	2.8	3.9
2016-17	31.5	18.4	2.6	4.7

There were glimpses of what he could become, including a three-game stretch last season when Paige was out with a hand injury and Jackson averaged 22.7 points per game, winning MVP honors at the CBE Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City over the final two games. 

Jackson reached 20 points only one time the rest of the season after scoring 20-plus in those three straight games before Paige's return. 

"Obviously, having Marcus come back and what he did his first three years, what type of player he is and what he did for our team, I felt like I did kind of just step back more," Jackson said. "It wasn't anybody or anything that made me do it. It's just what I did.

"I think coming into this year, knowing we had a little bit more on our shoulders individually, I felt like I couldn't do that."

Jackson knew in order to handle a larger offensive role, he had to fix his jumper. It wasn't necessarily broken. His technique is textbook. His parents made sure of that when he was a child and they would not allow him to shoot threes until he could do so with proper form.

That's one explanation for why he's a rarity: He has an excellent in-between game—equipped with a mid-range jumper and a floater.

But shooting outside was a struggle. Jackson shot just 29.7 percent from deep over his first two seasons.

When he attended the NBA draft combine last May, he was told what he already knew: He needed to add strength and shoot the ball better from the perimeter.

Jackson made one subtle change and then got in the gym.

"I tried to get my shot up just a little bit—not shoot it as flat," Jackson said. "Other than that, there's not anything really that I changed. It's the same exact shot. I just put enough time in for it to feel more comfortable."

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The results have changed the book on Jackson.

"He was sort of OK blending into the background, letting Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige do the heavy lifting," the scout said. "It's really encouraging to see him step up and see his confidence really grow. He's aggressive and making shots with a lot more ease and a lot more confidence. He's a different player."

The scout added that he thinks Jackson's stock is higher now than if he would have come out after one of his first two seasons when he would have been drafted on potential.

Once Jackson enters the draft now—either after this season or next—the NBA will be getting a much more complete scorer.

Jackson has made more three this season (84) than his first two years combined (63), and he shoots many of his threes from near NBA range.

That's because defenses are geared to keep Jackson from shooting, hugging him on the perimeter and trying to limit touches—Jackson has attempted only 39 open catch-and-shoot jumpers in the half court this season, according to Synergy Sports tracking.

Jackson is one of the best movers without the ball in the country, so he's found ways to get open, and sometimes the solution is catching the ball several feet beyond the arc. That's when the strength shows up.

"It doesn't feel as far," Jackson said.

Last Saturday in a win over Pittsburgh, that was on display when Jackson made two late-clock deep threes with several defenders right in his face.

"I think I could have [made those shots in the past], but I wouldn't have shot them with as much confidence as I do now," Jackson said. "Now every time I shoot I feel like it's going to go in. Whether it's a wide open spot-up shot or a shot with defenders on me, I step into it."

Jackson is actually shooting better on catch-and-shoot jumpers while guarded (41.1 percent) than when he's open (30.8 percent), per Synergy.

That has allowed Jackson to score the ball consistently and efficiently. His 122.7 offensive rating is the best of his career, per KenPom.com, and he's had 16 games in which he's topped 20 points, including a memorable shootout with Kentucky's Malik Monk earlier this year when Jackson went for 34 points.

UNC coach Roy Williams is old school in that he doesn't embrace three-pointers like other coaches more locked in on analytics, who suggest a layup or three should be the goal of every possession. Williams has had only one team rank in the top 300 in three-point rate (percentage of shots attempted from deep) in the last 11 seasons, per KenPom.com. This year's team ranks 308th.

That's not to say the Heels do not succeed in an analytical world. They rank fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and get their easy shots through transition, post-ups and put backs.

Jackson's improvement from the perimeter has been integral, because it spaces the floor for his big men to operate in space. Opponents used to be able to cheat off of him.

Jackson is also a willing passer, which is not always the case for a high-volume shooter. It's good for his team and refreshing to watch.

One such example took place at Pitt. Late in the first half after Jackson had made two straight jumpers and buried a three the possession prior, he had a transition three-point look that he passed up for a Luke Maye layup.

"I have to be smart," Jackson said. "I've hit some bigger shots, but I can't rush it. I can't force it. I can't take bad shots. Because most of the time, whenever you take bad shots, it turns into something good for the other team."

This is at the heart of what makes North Carolina so difficult to defend. The Tar Heels have outstanding balance with two double-digit inside scorers (Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks) to complement the outside scoring of Jackson and junior point guard Joel Berry II, who are the team's top two leading scorers and both play unselfishly.

That veteran core has UNC back in the hunt for a championship. A win on Saturday would give the Heels the outright ACC title and likely put them in line for a No. 1 seed.

Even with the loss this week to Virginia on the road, North Carolina is one of the teams most equipped to get to the Final Four. The Heels have veterans who have been there before, and one of the most balanced and deepest rosters among teams in contention.

They also have the motivation provided by Villanova's Kris Jenkins, who buried one of the most famous shots in NCAA tournament history to rob UNC of a chance at overtime and a national title a year ago.

"I honestly don't think about it much anymore," Jackson said. "At the time, it hurt and for a while that's all you can really think about because you can't get away from it. Every time you turn on the TV, it's 'the shot.'

"For me, it was getting away for the combine and once I came back to school, I just tried to work on myself and get ready and try to change my game for this year."

Jackson knew that was the path back to a Final Four, and he knew it was his time to lead.

"I don't think I've seen my son so locked in and wanting to be the guy," Jackson's father said.

It's a progression that is supposed to happen with time. Jackson had the patience to wait his turn and the self-awareness to know that he needed to change his body, which still isn't clear to the naked eye.

But the proof is in his jumper.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @CJMooreBR.