Super Bowl 51: MVP Odds, Predictions After Patriots vs. Falcons Opening Night

When the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons get together at Super Bowl 51, bettors can view the MVP odds one of two ways. 

The first is simplest. A showdown between Tom Brady and Matt Ryan means the historical domination of the award by quarterbacks will continue. This makes it a 50-50 pick between the two and the position will win the award for the 28th time (no other position has won more than six).

Date	Location	Time	TV	Point Spread	Over/Under	Prediction
Feb. 5	NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas	6:30 p.m. ET	Fox	NE -3	58.5	Patriots

The second is much more difficult, albeit with better rewards. Quarterbacks might get the nod most of the time, but two of the past three Super Bowls have seen linebackers steal the award. Malcolm Smith of the Seattle Seahawks took it in 2014, Von Miller of the Denver Broncos in 2016. Brady, the 2015 winner, sits in the middle.

One can begin to see why a list of the notable odds hits on many different spots yet has quarterbacks at the top:

Player	Odds
Tom Brady	+120
Matt Ryan	+200
Julio Jones	+900
Julian Edelman	+2500
LeGarrette Blount	+2500
Dion Lewis	+3300
Devonta Freeman	+2500
Chris Hogan	+2500
Martellus Bennett	+5000

The odds have already started to shift. Both quarterbacks have seen their odds of winning the award increase, while guys like Julio Jones and Julian Edelman have seen their lines go the other direction.

It isn't hard to see why. Brady and Ryan are both statistical juggernauts. The former threw 28 touchdowns over 12 games and did not miss a beat after his a four-game ban. The latter threw 38 and hasn't blinked in the face of two tough playoff matchups.

Ryan has never really seen his play dip in the playoffs, as ESPN Stats & Info illustrated:

Whether the Falcons have won in the postseason or not has greatly hinged on the talent around Ryan. The strength of his weapons, though, makes it harder than usual to predict the MVP.

Both Ryan and Brady love to spread the ball around, which would seem to increase the odds a quarterback wins. It's why the odds for someone like Jones dipped despite the fact he tallied 1,409 receiving yards and six touchdowns over 14 games.

If the Patriots silence Jones, Ryan will pepper other players like Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel with targets. It's a winning strategy and what makes the Falcons so great, as The MMQB's Peter King illustrates: "Jones had four little-to-no-impact games in the 14 he played in the regular season. I looked at those games. Atlanta went 4-0 in the four games, and averaged 34.8 points per game."

Should Ryan spread it around and take what the defense gives him, numbers should be so divvied up he alone takes the individual hardware, should the Falcons win. 

Atlanta Falcons X-Factors to Disrupt Patriots Offense in Super Bowl LI

Same story for New England. LeGarrette Blount looks like a great high-payout option, yet he is only realistic if the Patriots jump out to a lead and sit on the ball. But according to ESPN Stats & Information, New England hasn't scored in the first quarter of its last six Super Bowls.

Brady orchestrating a pass-first offense doesn't sound terrible, but it does put a damper on his weapons stealing the MVP award. James White and Dion Lewis caught touchdown passes in a playoff win against the Houston Texans. Chris Hogan and Edelman caught receiving scores against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sometimes it stinks to paint in broad strokes and say this game comes down to which quarterback plays better. But it is not only the truth here, it is the best way to view this matchup for bettors who want to throw down some hard-earned coin.

Could Jones erupt for three touchdowns? Absolutely. Lewis could score a receiving, rushing and special teams touchdown, sure. Another random weapon could score multiple touchdowns, including one to decide the game.

But this game is more about the guy delivering the ball than the guys catching it, of which there should be many, diluting the MVP candidacy.

The best prediction here is Brady. He not only knows a thing or two about winning the award and championships outright, he holds a major experience advantage over Ryan and this Falcons team. His defense, which allowed fewer than 16 points per game during the regular season, is also better than its counterpart, which allowed over 25 per game.

Brady might get off to a slow start, but adjustments from years of experience will have him pulling the Patriots ahead late and delivering him the MVP award. Bettors can go another way for high-ceiling payouts, but Brady is the safest and likeliest option.

Prediction: Tom Brady wins MVP

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.