The Complete Guide to UFC on Fox 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena
The UFC heads to Denver for a fun, well-matched card on Fox this Saturday.
In the main event, decorated kickboxer Valentina Shevchenko takes on rising The Ultimate Fighter winner Julianna Pena. With the bantamweight division up in the air following Amanda Nunes' 48-second destruction of Ronda Rousey and new blood desperately needed, the winner of this fight will almost certainly get a shot at the belt, lending the bout real stakes to go along with its intriguing stylistic possibilities.
The co-main event should produce fireworks. Action fighter extraordinaire Donald Cerrone is back in action just seven weeks after his last fight, drawing Jorge Masvidal in a fantastic matchup of veteran strikers.
Potential rising stars feature in the main card's first two bouts. Francis Ngannou faces longtime veteran Andrei Arlovski in the young fighter's first brush with real competition, while in the opener, Jason Knight meets Alex Caceres in another action fight.
The preliminary card has a nice selection of action fights. The highlight is the serious bantamweight scrap between Aljamain Sterling and Raphael Assuncao, as both contenders badly need a win to remain in the discussion at the top of the division. The Fox Sports 1 headliner pits the veteran Nate Marquardt against Sam Alvey in a fun fight.
That's about it in terms of name value, but the remaining fights are well matched and generally worth the viewer's time. Keep a particular eye on the flyweight bout featuring The Ultimate Fighter alumni Eric Shelton and Alexandre Pantoja.
Let's take a look at each individual matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Lightweights
Jason Gonzalez (10-3; 0-1 UFC) vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-4; 0-1 UFC)
Low-level lightweights open the show on Fight Pass. Gonzalez debuted with a knockout loss to Drew Dober last September, while Cottrell fell by decision to Michel Prazeres in July. The loser will certainly be cut from the promotion.
Gonzalez is a rangy (6'2"), high-output southpaw kickboxer. He's a bit hittable but has real technical skills, working behind a crisp jab and hard kicks. He can also wrestle and grapple well enough to play his preferred game. Cottrell can do a bit of everything, with a decent combination striking game, functional takedowns and a dangerous front headlock on the mat.
Prediction: Gonzalez is bigger and more technically sound on the feet. If this stays standing, and it should, he wins a decision.
Flyweights
Alexandre Pantoja (16-2; 0-0 UFC) vs. Eric Shelton (10-2; 0-0 UFC)
A pair of talented competitors on The Ultimate Fighter 24 meet in an outstanding matchup. Pantoja has been a blue-chip prospect for years, and he finally blossomed with a string of performances on the last season of TUF as the top seed before falling to Hiromasa Ogikubo in the semifinals. Shelton was an underdog as the No. 15 seed in the tournament, but he too made it to the semis before falling to eventual winner Tim Elliott.
Pantoja is dangerous everywhere. He's a slick all-around grappler who can finish both in transitions and extended sequences, a smooth, skilled wrestler and a potent puncher who isn't afraid to exchange in the pocket. Athleticism defines Shelton's game, and he mixes crisp combination punching with strong wrestling and functional grappling skills.
Prediction: This is a strong contender for Fight of the Night. Pantoja is the bigger name and better fighter right now, but in the long run, Shelton might turn out to be the more exciting talent and a fixture in the flyweight top 10. For the moment, however, Pantoja's greater experience—he's already a top-10 fighter on skill and talent—should allow him to win a decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Welterweights
Bobby Nash (8-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Li Jingliang (11-4; 3-2 UFC)
China's Li faces the debuting Nash, who comes in on short notice to replace Yancy Medeiros in a fun welterweight scrap. Li rebounded from a loss to Keita Nakamura by knocking out Anton Zafir in July, while Nash defeated UFC veteran Lewis Gonzalez in his last outing.
Nash is a talented young fighter with skills well beyond what his two years as a professional would suggest. He's a crisp striker with a thudding jab, hard low kicks and nice rhythm with his power punches, especially on the counter. He's a former Division I wrestler at Michigan State and has a bit of a grappling game to boot.
Li is well-rounded and entertaining. He's not the most defensively sound fighter, but he's an offensive whirlwind, slinging hard combinations and kicks on the feet, hitting slick trips and throws in the clinch, and hunting for submissions on the mat.
Prediction: If Nash wants to bang this out on the feet, he'll get himself in trouble with the quick-paced, dangerous Li, but if he falls back on his takedown game while mixing in the strikes, he'll be in much better shape. Nash wins a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Henrique da Silva (12-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Jordan Johnson (6-0; 0-0 UFC)
Talented prospect Johnson, the final light heavyweight champion in the RFA organization, draws Brazil's da Silva in a well-matched fight. Da Silva had impressed in his first two UFC outings, finishing Jonathan Wilson and Joachim Christensen, before falling by submission to Paul Craig last month. Johnson, a former wrestler first at Iowa and then Grand Canyon University, has beaten solid regional competition on his way to the UFC.
Da Silva is dangerous everywhere. He throws vicious kicks at range and does brutal work in the clinch with knees and elbows, while even from his back he hunts for the submission. He's a bad wrestler, though, and doesn't have great cardio. Johnson is still a wrestler first—and a good one. He overpowers his opponent with takedowns and smothers him, working either with strikes or toward a submission finish.
Prediction: If Paul Craig could repeatedly take da Silva down and control him, Johnson can do the same. The debutant grinds out a one-sided decision.
Light Heavyweights
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-4-1; 3-2 UFC) vs. Jeremy Kimball (14-5; 0-0 UFC)
Kimball steps up on late notice to take on Brazil's de Lima in a fun light heavyweight scrap. De Lima has been up and down in the UFC, and he lost his last fight by submission to Gadzhimurad Antigulov in November. Kimball has won four in a row on the regional scene since a loss to longtime UFC competitor Chris Camozzi.
De Lima is an all-or-nothing fighter. He throws bombs on the feet, does punishing work in the clinch and can finish from top position with strikes or submissions. Kimball is a mean, durable brawler who puts together creative combinations and isn't afraid to bang it out in the pocket or the clinch. He isn't much of a wrestler or grappler, though.
Prediction: Kimball is game, and de Lima doesn't have much after the first few minutes of a fight, but the Brazilian should find some way to get it done early. De Lima snags a submission in the first round.
Middleweights
Eric Spicely (9-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (10-1; 1-1 UFC)
Italy's Di Chirico meets on the American Spicely in a solid scrap at 185 pounds. Spicely, a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter 23, shocked the world with a huge upset of Thiago Santos in September after dropping his debut to Sam Alvey. Di Chirico has split his two fights, falling to Bojan Velickovic and then winning a decision over Garreth McLellan in his return engagement.
Spicely can do a bit of everything. He throws competent combinations on the feet but mostly looks to get inside, where he can work takedowns and then try to scramble to the back or snag a submission. Di Chirico is well-rounded and works at a great pace everywhere, melding his smooth combination striking with his wrestling and opportunistic grappling game on the mat.
Prediction: Di Chirico is the better athlete and more dangerous fighter. He finds a submission in the second round.
Bantamweights
Aljamain Sterling (12-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Raphael Assuncao (23-5; 7-2 UFC)
Sterling was one of the hottest prospects in the UFC, winning four straight over good competition to begin his UFC career, but he fell short in a close fight with Bryan Caraway last May. Now trying to reclaim some momentum, Sterling gets a tough draw in longtime contender Assuncao, who had a seven-fight winning streak snapped by TJ Dillashaw in July.
This is a great matchup and a fight with real implications for both men in the increasingly stacked bantamweight top 10.
Sterling is quick, athletic, diverse and unorthodox. He likes to fight long on the feet, using front, spinning, side and round kicks to set a long range. The real strength of his game is his combination of wrestling and grappling, which focuses on scrambles. Sterling is a particular master of getting to the back. On the downside, Sterling isn't a great boxer and can be taken down himself.
Assuncao can do everything well. He's a crisp, skilled striker who works at a quick pace and has a particular knack for counterpunching, but he's also an excellent offensive and defensive wrestler who can either keep it standing or hit takedowns at will. He does great work from top position as well.
Prediction: The outcome depends entirely on how much Sterling has grown since his loss to Caraway. If he is unable to work effectively in punching range and concedes takedowns, he's going to lose handily. If he's made improvements, though, he'll get it done. Sterling wins a close, back-and-forth decision on the strength of some well-timed takedowns.
Middleweights
Nate Marquardt (35-16-2; 13-9 UFC) vs. Sam Alvey (29-8, 1 NC; 6-3 UFC)
The veteran Marquardt tries to stay relevant against knockout artist Alvey in a fun middleweight scrap. Marquardt was a top fighter for many years, but age has caught up with the 37-year-old, who has suffered a series of devastating knockout losses. Alvey has won three fights in a row over the last six months, including a decision win over Alex Nicholson in November.
Marquardt has no gaps in his skills at this point in his long career. He's a crisp, dangerous striker with a potent jab and a gift for creative combinations, and he wrestles and grapples with equal skill. He struggles to take a punch, though, and that's a problem for a fighter who does his best work on his feet.
Alvey is a patient, heavy-handed southpaw counterpuncher. He doesn't like to lead, though he'll toss out the occasional punch or low kick to help him gauge the distance or find an angle and prefers to sit back and let his opponent come to him. Excellent takedown defense and a nasty guillotine choke help him keep the fight standing.
Prediction: The most likely outcome would be Alvey landing a flush counter right hook on Marquardt's faded chin, but if he can't land that shot, Marquardt's vastly superior skills and diversity of options should come into play. With that caveat, the pick is Alvey by knockout in the second round.
Jason Knight vs. Alex Caceres
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Featherweights
Jason Knight (15-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Alex Caceres (12-9, 1 NC; 7-7, 1 NC UFC)
The surging Knight takes on The Ultimate Fighter 12 veteran Caceres in a barnburner of a matchup to open the show on Fox. This will be the 16th appearance in the Octagon for Caceres, who had his two-fight winning streak snapped by rising star Yair Rodriguez in his last outing. Knight dropped his short-notice debut to Tatsuya Kawajiri last year, but he's won two in a row since then, including a victory over Dan Hooker.
Knight is an aggressive and dangerous fighter. He likes to get after his opponent from the opening bell, marching him down with solid pressure footwork and slinging hard punching combinations whenever he gets into range. A crisp jab and a tendency to move between head and body are the best pieces of his striking game, along with his raw output.
A surprisingly explosive wrestler, Knight shoots a lovely double-leg takedown that he finishes with real acumen. Defensive wrestling has been a problem for him in the past, but he looks to be improving it.
The big reason Knight wasn't concerned about his takedown defense is his active, aggressive guard, which makes him a handful for any opponent trying to grind out a few minutes from top position. Triangles and armbars come fast and furious, and it's no place to hang out or lose focus.
Caceres is a funky, fun and unorthodox fighter. He does his best work on the feet, flicking a variety of kicks at long range and doing surprising work with punching combinations at closer range. Power isn't his strong suit, but he piles up volume and works at a great pace.
Wrestling was a weakness for Caceres for a long time, but he has shown vast improvements in his last several fights, tapping into a new arsenal of trips and throws in the clinch, and doing a much better job of defending takedowns. He's still not a great defensive wrestler, though.
An active guard partially makes up for Caceres' bad takedown defense. He's excellent in transitions and excels at getting to the back, and he works steady control from top position.
Betting Odds
Knight -160 (bet $160 to win $100), Caceres +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Prediction
Both fighters are game, durable and active, so this should be a fantastic fight. Knight has a bit more firepower on the feet and should be the more dangerous grappler, though, so the edge has to go in his direction. He wins an entertaining decision.
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Andrei Arlovski vs. Francis Ngannou
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Heavyweights
Andrei Arlovski (25-13, 1 NC; 14-7 UFC) vs. Francis Ngannou (9-1; 4-0 UFC)
Like ships passing in the night, a blue-chip prospect on the rise faces a fading veteran on his way down in a compelling heavyweight fight. Arlovski has lost three in a row since putting together an improbable four-fight streak to begin his most recent stint in the UFC, dropping fights to Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. Ngannou has dominated his first four opponents, and he submitted Anthony Hamilton just last month.
Despite his advancing age—he'll turn 38 next week—Arlovski is still quick and athletic, and his skills haven't declined in any meaningful way despite all the mileage he's accrued in an 18-year pro career.
Striking is Arlovski's wheelhouse. His quick, potent right hand is the basis of his game, and it's an effective foundation for a stripped-down approach that has no illusions about what it's trying to accomplish. Arlovski probes with his lead hand more than he actually throws a jab, using it to gauge the timing and distance before unloading a power shot.
The right hand has real versatility for Arlovski. He can throw it as an overhand, a straight or an uppercut; he mixes it between the head and body; he throws it moving forward and as a counter; and he might throw it three or four times in a row, moving around, under and through the opponent's guard. Every time he throws it, it can finish the fight.
When he smells blood, Arlovski is happy to sit down on long flurries, and he could stand to mix in the left hook a bit more in general. The occasional oblique or round kick, especially to the legs, adds some diversity to his approach.
The problem with this is Arlovski's chin. He's not a bad defensive fighter, but even in his youth he was never the most durable fighter, and now any flush shot might be the one that ends his night.
The rest of Arlovski's game is competent. He makes good use of the clinch and particularly excels at pinning his opponent against the fence, eating up minutes of time between exchanges with a steady diet of knees and elbows. His takedown defense is outstanding, and while he rarely attempts takedowns, he can still hit a nice trip from time to time.
Ngannou is a physical monster, standing 6'4" and weighing in at just shy of 260 lean pounds. He's quick, athletic, strong and powerful, and he has an understanding of range and timing well beyond what one would expect from a fighter with just a few years of professional experience. It's not just physicality that makes Ngannou special, though—his technique improves by leaps and bounds in every fight.
Striking is Ngannou's preferred phase. He puts his 83-inch reach to good use with a long, cracking jab and keeps his feet moving under him—a rarity for such a big man. He pivots, turns and takes clean angles as he looks to maintain the distance and stick his opponent outside. By creating that distance, Ngannou can either leap in with a combination or, more likely, let his opponent come to him and then counter.
Every one of Ngannou's shots carries fight-ending power, and he excels at timing and placing his shots as his opponent comes forward, then pivoting and retreating to get back out of range. It's not the most complex game out there, but it's surprisingly advanced for such an inexperienced fighter.
If his opponent does succeed in getting inside, Ngannou is a good enough clinch fighter to ward off most attempts to grind him out, and he has a knack for landing punches and elbows as he gets away. His takedown defense is good and getting better in every outing, and he's showing flashes of a new submission game.
Betting Odds
Ngannou -425, Arlovski +340
Prediction
The betting odds are surprisingly wide, but they make sense: Ngannou hits really, really hard, and Arlovski's chin can't take much punishment these days. Still, the skill gap between the two men is enormous. Arlovski has forgotten more about MMA than Ngannou has ever learned, and if he can use the clinch and takedowns while avoiding the big shot, he could make the less experienced fighter look silly.
That's less likely, though, than Ngannou landing something substantial. Ngannou finds the knockout in the second round.
Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal
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Co-Main Event: Welterweights
Donald Cerrone (32-7, 1 NC; 19-4 UFC) vs. Jorge Masvidal (31-11; 8-4 UFC)
The inimitable Cerrone returns to action for the fifth time in the last 12 months, drawing fellow action fighter and longtime fringe contender Masvidal in a welterweight scrap that promises fireworks.
Cerrone has done exceptional work since moving up to 170 pounds, finishing all four of his opponents inside the distance, including the ultra-durable Matt Brown and Rick Story in his last two outings. Masvidal has won two in a row, a decision over Ross Pearson and then a strange finish against Jake Ellenberger when Ellenberger got his toes caught in the fence.
Despite having 40 fights under his belt, 23 of them in the UFC, Cerrone is still growing and evolving as a fighter. At a basic level, what he wants to do—chew up his opponent with a steady diet of vicious kicks to the legs, body and head in the center of the cage—hasn't changed; what's different is his ability to impose that game on opponents who don't want to play it.
Pressure has always been Cerrone's kryptonite. He needs space to operate and hasn't always had the tools to enforce that space when opponents pushed him back toward the fence and cut off his escape angles, as Rafael dos Anjos did so successfully on two different occasions.
Now, Cerrone has put together a few different tools to pursue his preferred game. He changes levels and shoots reactive takedowns when his opponent comes forward; he plays matador, pivoting and turning before launching punches; he plants his feet to throw counters in the pocket and moves his head; and he combines all of these things, layering his game together into an unpredictable mixture.
Cerrone also punches harder and throws better combinations than he used to, which opens up even more opportunities for him to land his devastating, fight-ending kicks.
While he's known mostly as a striker, Cerrone can do everything else as well. He has a gorgeous takedown game and times his shots beautifully, moving between singles, doubles and knee-taps with great facility. In the center of the cage, his takedown defense is fantastic, though he struggles a bit when shoved against the fence. His clinch game is stout, and his knees in particular are dangerous.
As a grappler, Cerrone is lethal both on top and from his back. He has a slick passing game and a nose for the submission, and he isn't afraid to give up position hunting for the finish. His guard is dangerous, and his chains of omoplatas, triangles and armbars can finish or sweep at any time. In transition, his move to the back is one of the best in the sport.
Masvidal is technically sound everywhere and has a wealth of experience against some of the best fighters in the sport. Striking is where he feels most comfortable, though, and it's the best facet of his game.
Boxing is Masvidal's wheelhouse. His sharp, consistent jab establishes the distance, scores points, probes for weaknesses and sets a rhythm, and when the moment is right, Masvidal sits down on hard straight rights and left hooks in smooth combinations that move between the head and body. His counter left hook is particularly dangerous. Sharp kicks to the legs and body add another dimension for opponents to worry about.
Masvidal is a defensive master. He moves his head consistently, but that's just one layer of a complex game that combines parries, blocks, footwork and head movement to make it difficult to hit him cleanly, even when he's working at a quick pace.
The rest of Masvidal's game is just as crisp and technical. He's excellent in the clinch, mixing hard knees and slashing elbows, and has a clean, well-timed takedown game that he could stand to use a bit more often. His takedown defense is excellent and holds up against even strong wrestlers.
Masvidal isn't a submission wizard, but he's a competent top-control grappler who can maintain control, and he has a nice front headlock game in transition.
Betting Odds
Cerrone -165, Masvidal +145
Prediction
For a long time, the knock on Masvidal was his tendency to cruise in a fight when he didn't feel challenged. In his last two outings, however, Masvidal has ratcheted up the killer instinct, hunting aggressively for the finish and pouring on offense to put his stamp on his wins.
That increased aggression makes this a much closer fight than it might have been a year ago. Masvidal will probably be content to fight an open-space striking game, but he'll work fast enough to compete with Cerrone.
The problem for Masvidal is likely to be distance. Cerrone is a better kicker and a good enough boxer not to get dominated at close range, and that should be the difference here. In a close, back-and-forth fight, Cerrone wins a decision.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Julianna Pena
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Main Event: Women's Bantamweights
Valentina Shevchenko (13-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Julianna Pena (8-2; 4-0 UFC)
Bantamweight contenders collide in a matchup that will likely determine the next challenger to champion Amanda Nunes' throne as well-traveled kickboxer Shevchenko takes on The Ultimate Fighter 18 winner Pena.
Shevchenko has impressed since arriving in the UFC just over a year ago, taking a decision from longtime top fighter Sarah Kaufman in her short-notice debut, losing a tight decision to Nunes and then clearly winning a 25-minute bout with former champion Holly Holm.
Pena has won all four of her fights since capturing the TUF 18 crown back in 2013, though her competition hasn't been as imposing as Shevchenko's. A competitive decision win over former title challenger Cat Zingano stands out as the best victory on her record, and her three prior opponents compiled a combined UFC ledger of 2-9 with a no-contest.
This is a huge step up in competition for a potential rising star in Pena, and Shevchenko is marketable in her own right, with an exciting style and an ax to grind with Nunes. The stakes here are real and compelling.
Shevchenko holds wins under kickboxing or muay thai rules against the likes of current strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Caley Reece, so her striking credentials aren't in question. Her background in a variety of striking arts forms the backbone of her game.
A southpaw, Shevchenko prefers a measured, technical and slow-paced approach that is built on a mastery of distance and footwork. She excels at setting a precise range, flicking out jabs and inside low kicks to maintain it. This forces the opponent to either stay too far away to do anything of value or to rush forward to cover the gap, which gives Shevchenko all the time and space she needs to reply with something devastating.
Counters are the heart of Shevchenko's game. The right hook is her preferred shot, and she times and angles it beautifully as the opponent comes within range. Throwing it as a check hook, with her rear foot swinging into position as she throws to create a new angle, is a specialty.
For the most part, Shevchenko's counter arsenal consists of single shots like this, all executed with the utmost care and precision to maintain a steady pace and range. When she really digs into combinations, though, she's devastating. Her straight left is her most dangerous punch, and her flow from punches to kicks and back to punches is smooth and lethal. The occasional spinning strike adds some flash.
A strong clinch game that belies her lack of height—Shevchenko stands just 5'5"—adds another dimension and provides a safety blanket if her opponent manages to successfully cross long range. Sharp knees and slashing elbows make it dangerous to grapple with her for extended periods, and Shevchenko complements her strikes with a slick arsenal of trips and throws.
From top position, Shevchenko is mostly content to control and land a few strikes. She has a basic knowledge of passes and knows how to get to the back but hasn't used that game against high-level opposition. Her guard is basic and her takedown defense is competent but no better than that.
Shevchenko relies on a methodical, slow pace to win fights, and this is both her strength and her weakness. Opponents who get sucked into her counter game have little to offer, but if they're willing to walk through her shots and stay busy, Shevchenko will give up rounds on the scorecards as she waits for the shots she wants. Moreover, Shevchenko isn't such a powerful puncher that she can win rounds as she gets outlanded.
Pena is big, strong, athletic and aggressive, preferring to get after her opponent from the opening bell and overwhelm her foe with her physicality and a smothering grappling game.
Striking isn't Pena's strong suit. She's not exactly bad at it, flicking a consistent jab and dropping hard combinations as she moves forward, but it's a limited game that serves mostly to cover her attempts to get into the clinch or change levels for a shot takedown. Her head always stays right on the center line and her combinations are predictable, making her vulnerable to counters.
Forward-moving pressure is Pena's wheelhouse, and her footwork is suited to that purpose and little else. Once she gets ahold of her opponent, though, she's a handful. Her arsenal of trips and throws in the clinch is potent, and she has a good command of chains of singles and doubles.
From top position, Pena is a monster. She has a fantastic command of passes and great posture when she gets to a dominant position, which allows her to drop brutal ground strikes at a rapid pace while still maintaining suffocating control. Scrambles and transitions are another strong suit, and she's particularly good at moving between the top ride and the back while landing shots.
On the other hand, Pena's aggression leaves a great many openings for opponents to hit takedowns of their own. Her defensive wrestling game has been downright abysmal—not because she doesn't know how to stuff takedowns but because she often lets her opponents get underhooks in the clinch or easily get to her hips with a shot. From her back, she has an active if not dangerous guard, but it's not difficult to control her.
Betting Odds
Shevchenko -115, Pena -105
Prediction
If Pena can consistently make her way to top position, this is her fight to lose. She's a vicious ground striker, and Shevchenko had serious trouble when Nunes put her on her back and went to town with punches and elbows.
That's a big "if," though. Nunes had to be willing to strike with Shevchenko to create the opportunities that allowed her to get takedowns in the first place, and the champion is miles beyond Pena in her ability to work on the feet. Pena doesn't have Nunes' raw takedown skills, either, and Shevchenko is no slouch in the clinch.
This should come down to Shevchenko's ability to maintain the distance, keep her feet moving and punish Pena as she comes in. If she can do that without easily conceding takedowns, this is her fight to lose. Shevchenko wins a 49-46 decision.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark and current as of Jan. 25.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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