NFL Playoffs 2017: Projecting AFC, NFC Brackets Before Final Games
NFL fans have waited until 2017 to uncover the postseason's opening-round matchups.
A few puzzle pieces are complete. Any NFC team planning on knocking off the Dallas Cowboys must do so inside Jerry World. The New York Giants, the only team to beat them this season, can't finalize their traveling plans despite clinching the No. 5 seed.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans will host AFC Wild Card Round showdowns, and the Miami Dolphins likely have flights booked to both locales. Beyond that, there are plenty of variables to juggle with one playoff spot, two divisions and two first-round byes up for grabs.
Want to find out each conference's full playoff bracket and prepare for the first-round slate? Well, you'll have to wait until late Sunday night.
Not patient enough to think of anything beyond football as the calendar changes to 2017? Let's project the final standings, which will provide predicted wild-card matchups.
| 1 | New England Patriots | 14-2 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11-5 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 9-7 |
| 5 | Oakland Raiders | 12-4 |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | 10-6 |
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 13-3 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 11-5 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-5-1 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 10-6 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 10-6 |
| 6 | Washington | 9-6-1 |
Predicted Wild Card Weekend Matchups
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Heading into the final weekend, the 12-3 Oakland Raiders could still snatch home-field advantage throughout the postseason with a win and a New England Patriots loss. They can also fumble the AFC West title if they lose to the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs defeat the San Diego Chargers.
Backup quarterback Matt McGloin will replace the injured Derek Carr—who broke his leg in Week 16—against Denver's premier passing defense, and San Diego just lost to the Cleveland Browns. Unless the Broncos send their defense home early, look for the Raiders and Chiefs to switch spots after Week 17.
This projection is great news for the Houston Texans, who were humiliated by Kansas City in a 30-0 Wild Card Weekend rout last year. With no J.J. Watt but just as much quarterback confusion, they should expect a similar outcome in a rematch.
Against the Raiders, they have a fighting chance to beat McGloin at home in an ugly, low-scoring affair. Then they'd go to Arrowhead or Foxborough to receive their postseason pink slip.
Despite sealing the AFC South with three straight wins, the Texans still possess a minus-42 point differential and the league's fourth-worst passing offense. Football Outsiders ranks them below the San Francisco 49ers in defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA), a measure of team efficiency accounting for strength of schedule.
Miami (No. 15) is the only other AFC playoff team rated outside the top 10.
Yet the Raiders have rolled behind a potent offense, which has masked a defense that is No. 27 in yards allowed and No. 22 in defensive DVOA. Their strength is mitigated without Carr, making this an unappetizing playoff contest.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Miami Dolphins entered Week 6's matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers gasping for their playoff lives. At 1-4, they upset the 4-1 Steelers 30-15 by unleashing Jay Ajayi to the tune of 204 rushing yards.
That commenced a six-game winning streak for Miami, which has now laced together three consecutive triumphs following a 38-6 misstep versus the Baltimore Ravens. Its second-year running back has tallied 1,096 yards on the ground during those 10 contests.
He helped Miami lock down a wild-card spot against the Buffalo Bills with 206 rushing yards, 75 during the game-winning drive. As noted by the Sun Sentinel's Omar Kelly, Ajayi joined elite company by accruing his third 200-yard game of 2016:
Remember that before immediately advancing Pittsburgh to the next round—even if it is an attempt to manufacture suspense, as most onlookers won't spend too long ruminating over their pick.
The Steelers solidified their sixth straight win and the AFC North title with a narrow Christmas victory over the Baltimore Ravens. They're now No. 3 in DVOA behind the Cowboys and Patriots and have averaged 26.5 points in 11 games played by Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.
Last year, Denver ousted Pittsburgh during the Divisional Round, as Bell and Brown watched from the sideline, and Roethlisberger played through an injured right shoulder. Right guard David DeCastro expressed optimism to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Ray Fittipaldo of better health enabling a richer playoff run.
"Hopefully, we can keep it that way, knock on wood," DeCastro said. "As you can see we're a confident team. We have some weapons, man. We had some problems with injuries that kind of snowballed against us last year. But we're extremely confident. We just have to keep it that way."
A Week 17 Miami loss to New England will finalize this matchup, and quarterback Matt Moore isn't going to stop the Patriots from maintaining the AFC's No. 1 seed. For the Dolphins to again emerge victorious, they'd need another huge day from their breakout back, but the Steelers rank No. 6 against the run despite their earlier encounter.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
The NFC Wild Card Round pairings are tougher to peg. Everyone must wait until the season's final game to see who will claim the NFC North, and the Detroit Lions are one of three teams (Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks) able to land the second first-round bye.
Let's assume the Falcons take care of business at home against the New Orleans Saints, which would award them the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks should also handle the 49ers, who have more incentive to maintain a top-two draft pick by losing. Assuming an Atlanta win, that gives Seattle the third spot.
This leaves the Giants waiting for Sunday night's winner. If it wasn't already clear which squad Big Blue fans should prefer, they lost to the Packers in Week 5 and bested the Lions two weeks ago.
Following double-digit losses to New York and Dallas, Detroit wields a minus-five point differential. Churning out comeback wins has kept the Lions alive, but that formula yields a low success rate against playoff-caliber teams.
Against teams currently in the postseason, including the Packers, the Lions are 0-4. They did, however, beat Washington on a game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds remaining.
Green Bay, meanwhile, is peaking at the perfect time. After enduring a four-game losing streak, it has generated 154 points during five consecutive victories. As shown by The MMQB's Albert Breer after Week 16's decimation of the Minnesota Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has sharply rebounded from a slow start:
The Giants—or anyone else, for that matter—should want no part of Rodgers and Co. Although their free-agent spending spree has produced a potent defense, they rank No. 21 in offensive DVOA. Their only effective play is "hope Odell Beckham Jr. does something incredible," an occasionally effective but unreliable blueprint.
This matchup would give Green Bay a chance for revenge, as New York won playoff games at Lambeau Field in each of its last two Super Bowl campaigns. This year, however, Green Bay is 6-2 at home, and New York has netted a 3-4 road record.
Washington at Seattle Seahawks
Washington would hold the No. 6 seed with a win over the Giants, who have already settled into the No. 5 spot. The G-Men, who lost their earlier division showdown at home, will likely rest key players during their Week 17 rematch.
Before popping any champagne, the 9-6-1 team must make sure the Lions and Packers don't tie. The season's third draw would put both teams into the playoffs via a three-team tiebreaker.
No opponent wants a trip to Seattle on its playoff itinerary, but the Arizona Cardinals handed the Seahawks their first home loss of the season at CenturyLink Field last Saturday. Perhaps the 12th Man can't cure the struggles sprung by an injured Earl Thomas and an ineffective offensive line.
They have overcome early-season inconsistencies before, but the Seahawks still enter 2017 flawed. One major difference between this team and past models? It's tied for No. 22 in rushing offense.
Luckily for head coach Pete Carroll and Co., Russell Wilson has passed the ball with aplomb at home:
| 8 | 67.0 | 2,181 | 8.17 | 13 | 3 | 103.5 |
Scoring against Washington's No. 29 defense shouldn't prove to be a major problem, but can Kirk Cousins drive the field in hostile territory against a top-10 defense?
While Washington poses a more dangerous opponent than Detroit, its defensive shortcomings would maintain Seattle as a healthy favorite.
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