Matthew Stafford Is the NFL's MVP When It Matters Most

There's an annual debate in December as the NFL’s Most Valuable Player race rounds the corner and sprints to the finish line. We ask ourselves this question repeatedly: What, exactly, does valuable mean?

The official definition—a player who is considered to be the most valuable to his team—is still a vague, moving target. Anyone who even gets to the fringes of an MVP conversation should fit that description.

We need to zoom in the focus a little more. Is there a player who has consistently been his team's most valuable performer during a time when the pressure is at its highest and the margin for error pretty much doesn’t exist?

Yes, and his name is Matthew Stafford. The Detroit Lions quarterback has piloted a team that gives its fans a weekly urge to hide under the largest blanket available.

Forget the wins and losses for a second and respect the overall minefield Stafford has navigated in 2016. The Lions played their 13th game Sunday and won in dramatic fashion yet again, this time over the Chicago Bears. Incredibly, of those 13 games, the margin of victory was a touchdown or less 12 times. That comes with an emphasis on "less," as the margin in seven games was a field goal or less.

There's an instinct to wonder how long a team and a quarterback can keep delicately dancing along that razor-thin line between winning and losing. It's a legitimate question, and Stafford has given us a record-setting answer, per NFL Research:

The Lions have won nine games and lead the NFC North. Nearly all of those wins have left fans, players and coaches with their fingernails gnawed off.

But keep resisting the temptation to toss that aside as luck or happenstance. Mediocre quarterbacks can stumble into a handful of successful fourth-quarter comebacks. Doing it consistently, though, shows a level of unique calm in the NFL's hottest pressure cooker.

Pivotal and game-deciding moments haven't shaken Stafford yet in 2016. A quarterback who once struggled with decision-making and ball placement while throwing 15-plus interceptions in a season four times has been reliably careful. He's remained steady even when everyone in the stadium—from the defense to the pretzel guy in section 511—knows the Lions offense is airing it out in the fourth quarter during a comeback attempt.

Stafford has thrown just seven interceptions in 2016. More importantly, he's chucked only three picks since the start of Week 5. That's a nine-game stretch with seven interception-free weeks.

His nearly mistake-free play isn’t a product of Detroit's letting off the offensive gas or reducing his passing volume. It's borderline impossible to do that and still orchestrate eight fourth-quarter comebacks. And easing off becomes a laughable notion when you look at the backfield and remember the Lions have the league's 29th-ranked rushing offense—it's averaging only 83.7 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

Winning has almost entirely fallen on Stafford’s arm. And just to mix things up, he's won with his legs too.

A three-game losing streak and the 1-3 start are now memories. Since then, the Lions have won eight of their last nine games and five straight. All of that has come as Stafford thrives when the outcome needs to be decided.

Overall, you can glance at any metric and be impressed by Stafford's 2016 season. His passer rating of 99.7 ranks a solid ninth, according to Pro Football Focus, and his 66.7 completion percentage is tied for seventh. His touchdown-to-interception ratio (22-7) is excellent, and a ball has gone to the wrong set of hands on only 1.5 percent of his 468 pass attempts.

But then dive beyond the surface and see what's propelling Stafford.

Heroics stand out when a quarterback regularly leads game-clinching fourth-quarter drives. Highlight segments will replay a deep end-zone heave to the back corner countless times for the following 24 hours. However, just getting to the area of the field where such a play is possible and doing it almost weekly defines the real heroes.

Those game-winning plays later imitated in backyards are set up by prolonging drives, moving chains and getting fresh sets of downs to work with. And Stafford has been among the league's best when the situation looks dire.

Of his 123 third-down pass attempts, 45.5 percent have resulted in first downs, according to NBC Sports. That ranks sixth, but it also tells only a partial story of Stafford's third-down effectiveness.

Not all third-down attempts are created equal, which is why a broad passing-conversion percentage can skew perception. Some passes only require connecting on a quick and short slant, while the offense faces long yards and longer odds for others.

When the Lions are facing 3rd-and-long, Stafford is at his best. In fact, he's the best.

Quarterback	% of successful passing conversions
Matthew Stafford	39.1
Philip Rivers	38.3
Jameis Winston	37.3
Drew Brees	36.5
Trevor Siemian	36.5

A small sample size isn't propping up Stafford's completion percentage on 3rd-and-long either. Of the top 20 quarterbacks listed by NBC Sports, none have attempted more than Stafford's 64 throws in that situation.

When hope seems to be doing laps around the drain, Stafford has been the quarterback to call on in 2016. Heading into Week 14, he was first in completion percentage on third down in the fourth quarter (74.2 percent), according to ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein.

Then Sunday, the first overall pick in 2009 had a significant hiccup with two fourth-quarter interceptions on third down. But it's fair to wonder if adjusting to a protective glove played a role. Stafford suffered a dislocated joint and torn ligaments in his middle finger earlier in the game.

There are now concerns about the late-game savior as the Lions march toward the playoffs and will likely host at least one game. But former NFL team doctor David J. Chao isn't anticipating a major issue going forward:

This is reassuring for a Lions fanbase that at minimum needs something to feel good about come January.

The Lions infamously haven’t won a playoff game since Jan. 5, 1992. Or, if you're someone who measures the passage of time with movies, then the last Lions' playoff win came a few months before the best film ever was up for Oscars.

The odds were against ending that 24-year streak when wide receiver Calvin Johnson retired in March. But Stafford has gradually adapted, spreading his targets out and getting more precise in key situations.

Without his fourth-quarter brilliance, the Lions would be struggling to even be in the playoff conversation. So Stafford is more than merely the Lions' most valuable player. He's a leading candidate to be the NFL's most valuable player too.