NFL Playoff Scenarios 2016-17: AFC, NFC Week 15 Picture, Postseason Predictions
The NFL took one step closer toward clearing its cloudy playoff picture. But with three weeks remaining, it's still a mess.
Aside from the Dallas Cowboys, no team has clinched a playoff berth entering the New England Patriots' Monday Night Football meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. A Ravens victory would create the fourth NFL and third AFC division tie, and both wild-card pictures have dissolved into anarchy.
If they haven't already, many fans will start watching the scoreboard in Week 15. Unless the next two slates create some clarity, everyone must also soon study a dizzying list of tiebreaker scenarios.
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For now, let's look at the current AFC and NFC playoff standings before making a premature prediction in each conference.
Standings
AFC
| 1 | New England Patriots | 10-2 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10-3 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-5 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 7-6 |
| 5 | Oakland Raiders | 10-3 |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | 8-5 |
| Denver Broncos | 8-5 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7-5 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 7-6 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6-7 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 6-7 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-7-1 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 5-8 |
NFC
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 11-2 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 9-4 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 8-4-1 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-5 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 9-4 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-5 |
| Washington | 7-5-1 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7-6 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 7-6 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5-7-1 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 5-8 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-8 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5-8 |
Postseason Predictions
Houston Texans Win Ugly AFC South Race
The Houston Texans aren't particularly good, but they're in the driver's seat to secure their third straight AFC South title.
Despite another poor passing performance from quarterback Brock Osweiler, the Texans earned a crucial 22-17 victory over the Indianapolis Colts behind 185 rushing yards and three Andrew Luck turnovers. They're now locked into a tie with the Tennessee Titans, who they defeated earlier in the season to control the tiebreaker.
The Titans are the only team in the division with the upside to do anything in the postseason. On Sunday, they beat the Denver Broncos at their own game, dominating the ground game while recording three sacks and two fumble recoveries in a 13-10 defensive battle.
As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, Tennessee needed all of its 180 rushing yards, as Denver's top-ranked passing defense shut down Marcus Mariota:
Despite the mild upset, there's a likely scenario where the Titans win their Week 17 encounter against the Texans and still fall short of snapping an eight-year playoff drought. As the Titans face another tough AFC West challenge in the 10-3 Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans will prepare for two home matchups against losing opponents:
| 15 | vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-11 | at Kansas City Chiefs | 10-3 | at Minnesota Vikings | 7-6 |
| 16 | vs. Cincinnati Bengals | 5-7-1 | at Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-11 | at Oakland Raiders | 10-3 |
| 17 | at Tennessee Titans | 7-6 | vs. Houston Texans | 7-6 | vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-11 |
Those games aren't locks for Houston, which entered Week 14 ranked No. 30 in Football Outsiders' Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Then again, Bill O'Brien's squad is 5-1 at NRG Stadium, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are the Jaguars.
If the Texans take care of the Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals while the Titans fall short to the Chiefs, the best Tennessee can hope for is a tie. With the season series split, the tiebreaker turns to conference record, where Houston holds a one-game edge.
The Colts, meanwhile, squandered their best opportunity in Week 14. Now they must salvage their season in two brutal road contests against the Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders. They'll likely need to win each of their final three games while the Texans—who won both head-to-head contests—win no more than once.
Possessing an atrocious aerial offense and minus-45 point differential, the Texans don't deserve a playoff bid. Even as the guest, Oakland or Kansas City would enter a first-round road matchup favored. Maybe the Chiefs replicate last year's 30-0 AFC Wild Card Round rout.
It'd be far more fun to watch Mariota and Co. advance to the postseason, but the Chiefs are poised to spoil that possibility in Week 15. They are, however, also now involved in the wild-card picture.
Seattle Seahawks Reclaim NFC's No. 2 Seed
Seattle Seahawks fans nervously awaited Week 14 to see how the team would fare without star safety Earl Thomas. The early answer—not good.
Aaron Rodgers torched the depleted Legion of Boom for 246 passing yards and three touchdowns during the Green Bay Packers' 38-10 victory at Lambeau Field. It's easy but unfair to blame the missing Thomas entirely for the debacle. His absence had nothing to do with Russell Wilson surrendering five interceptions behind an increasingly leaky offensive line.
The loss prevented the Seahawks from clinching the NFC West and dropped them below the Detroit Lions for the pivotal No. 2 seed. Since the Arizona Cardinals need three wins and three Seahawks losses to steal the division, Pete Carroll's team should be more concerned about regaining its first-round bye.
As horrible as it looked on Sunday, the remaining schedule still gives it a good opportunity to jump back into the No. 2 slot:
| 15 | vs. Los Angeles Rams | 4-9 | at New York Giants | 9-4 |
| 16 | vs. Arizona Cardinals | 5-7-1 | at Dallas Cowboys | 11-2 |
| 17 | at San Francisco 49ers | 1-12 | vs. Green Bay Packers | 7-6 |
The Seahawks play their next two games at CenturyLink Field, where they're a perfect 6-0 this season. While the Los Angeles Rams have won their last three meetings, look for that unusual streak to end. After an embarrassing showing against the Atlanta Falcons, the Rams sunk to 4-9 and have lost their last three games by a combined 72 points.
Head coach Jeff Fisher said he wasn't going 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 on Hard Knocks, but he never said anything about 4-12 or 5-11. Seattle will squash the NFC West pest before handling the inconsistent Cardinals, who no longer boast the prolific passing attack to exploit their rival's new sore spot.
They also won't need Thomas to beat the San Francisco 49ers, who blew a 14-0 lead to suffer their 12th straight loss against the New York Jets. Detroit, meanwhile, gets a brutal closing schedule against three possible NFC playoff peers. As they keep flying dangerously close to the sun, look for them to fall during the closing weeks.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, Matthew Stafford engineered his eight comeback drive of the season during Week 14's 20-17 win over the 3-10 Chicago Bears:
"He's got an unusual knack to perform, particularly when things are tight," Lions head coach Jim Caldwell said of his quarterback, per ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein.
This rally, however, falls under the "sitcom dad" column. Stafford saved the day—but only after his mistake forced the last-second heroics. After throwing a pick-six to Cre'Von LeBlanc, he needed a redemptive touchdown drive to salvage the game he nearly squandered.
Then again, he did so despite dislocating his thumb, as later revealed by ESPN.com's Adam Schefter:
Detroit has trailed in the fourth quarter all but once this season. Its defense, which has yielded the highest opposing completion percentage, made Matt Barkley look like a legitimate starting quarterback.
Everything has gone right for the Lions to boast a 9-4 record, but they don't wield a top-team portfolio, even with Stafford playing at 100 percent. Look for them to lose two of their final three as the Seahawks win out to leap back into the second spot behind Dallas.
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