No Need for Real Madrid to Fear Finishing 2nd in Champions League Group
Having eventually emerged unscathed from El Clasico and still sitting top by six points in La Liga, Real Madrid must be feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Three difficult tests in recent weeks have been overcome, culminating in the draw at Barcelona, and Zinedine Zidane's men are still unbeaten in 2016/17. But the tough games just keep coming, and there's an argument that the next one might be the most difficult of all, at home to Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League.
While there's no doubt Los Blancos will want to win for professional pride and to showcase their strength, not to mention to leapfrog BVB and finish top of the group, the fact is that the German outfit are an excellent team in their own right, and it won't be an easy fixture to win. Finishing second in a Champions League group would often be seen as a half-failure, a prelude to an early exit, but not this year.
This year, Madrid shouldn't worry in the slightest about whether they eventually finish first or second in Group F.
A year unlike others
Top plays second; second plays top. That's how the round of 16 works, but beyond that and the enforced country protection that means Real Madrid cannot play another side from La Liga until the quarter-finals, it's an open field—and one that looks strangely unbalanced in '16/17.
Finishing second most seasons would yield perhaps a couple of easier-looking teams, but mainly top-class names, as potential opponents. Perhaps it's because Real Madrid are considerably better than other clubs involved, and indeed are holders of the trophy, but there isn't much to be afraid of at this point even if they end the week as runners-up to Dortmund.
Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal could yet switch places in Group A, and either are decent opposition—yet neither will scare Real, who saw off PSG in the groups last season. Arsenal have never been a force in Europe and often crumble against top opposition.
Group B has Napoli, Benfica and Besiktas in a three-way battle for the top two spots, and while the Italians are the pick of the bunch, they're not elite, are well off the pace domestically, and the fact they're battling against those other two sides might suggest that Real could confidently see them off over two legs. Barcelona and Atletico Madrid top their respective groups, but Real cannot face either of them in the last 16, nor, of course, Borussia Dortmund from Los Blancos' own group.
That leaves current top-placed sides Monaco, Juventus and Leicester City.
Here, at least, there are some considerations. Monaco are scoring for fun, in good form and top an impressive group, but there's a long way to go before late February to maintain that kind of impetus, when the knockout stage of the Champions League begins. Leicester are excellent in Europe and terrible domestically—presumably they'll even out somewhat in both respects over the coming months—and Juventus are the clear standout side of the potential first-placed opponents.
One out of eight? Perhaps two, including either Monaco or PSG?
Zidane would take those odds and back his team immensely to overcome whichever test is thrown their way.
Finishing top doesn't alter the odds much: Manchester City and Bayern Munich would provide a difficult tie, and both sit second in their groups, but they are the only ones to really trouble the sleep of Zidane and his side.
Arsenal, Benfica or Besiktas, Bayer Leverkusen, Sevilla, Porto or FC Copenhagen. Those are the other second-placed sides, along with Madrid themselves, and Sevilla, of course, can be struck off the list, either because Real cannot play them in the last eight or because they lose to Lyon on the final matchday and are eliminated on head-to-head.
There will be two tough games either way, and a lot of potential opponents that nobody in white will underestimate, yet also not be unduly worried about.
Bring it on
And so, worst-case scenario, Juventus or Bayern Munich rock up to the Santiago Bernabeu in the round of 16. What of it?
They will be true tests on a technical and tactical level, and the two sides have head coaches in Massimiliano Allegri (Juve) and Carlo Ancelotti (Bayern) whose experience far outstrips Zidane's, but it's Zidane who won the Champions League in May. It's Zidane who remains unbeaten this season, while those other two giants lost as recently as two and three matchdays ago, respectively, in domestic action.
Two absolute conclusions can be drawn about Zidane's Real Madrid team at this point:
- Their consistent best level does not involve high-class, high-speed football in the manner of Dortmund, Barca or the likes.
- The contrast of styles does not undermine Real's ability to emerge victorious from the toughest of fixtures.
For some time, it has been apparent that Madrid are not at their best, and yet here they are on the cusp of an all-time club record. They have not been at their best, yet even in a brief spell when they were, they were not playing scintillating, unstoppable football with a balance in both halves of the pitch.
They are more like a machine with small miscalculations in its workings, functional to the point of rigid for a period, something going wrong then working overtime within its own limitations to correct those flaws and remain on the right path overall.
Sevilla. Borussia Dortmund. Atletico Madrid. Sporting CP. Barcelona. Even Real Sociedad at Anoeta.
All those teams have taken on Real this season, and none have left celebrating victory.
Primary objective
Right now, although the football mantra suggests nothing other than the next available three points should be on the agenda, Real Madrid do have another priority: making history.
It shouldn't be underestimated just how much weight that might carry, not this week or this season but in the summer and beyond, into Madrid's future yet to pass—that Zidane was not only a legend of a player but was also able to immediately translate that into success in the dugout. Trophies have fallen, a fractured dressing room has been repaired, enemy clubs have been bested, and now, if defeat to Dortmund is avoided, a club record of 34 matches unbeaten will be equalled.
Such an impact would rightly put Zidane up among the top names of Madrid's history, regardless of how the team has performed in that run or indeed whether he genuinely is as good at in-game management as other top coaches. The pure fact is that he would have achieved it amid a backdrop of injuries to key players, winning silverware and the interruption of summer.
It's outstanding whichever way you look at it, and it makes the Dortmund match all the more poignant: not just to decide whether Real pip them to top spot but whether they make history.
And doing it with a win is not all-important; the record Zidane's side are trying to match was achieved with 25 wins and nine draws, per Marca. So far, the current group have 25 wins and eight draws. Match Leo Beenhakker's haul and history is theirs, and for what it's worth, Beenhakker's squad, after making history with a club-best undefeated run, went on to win La Liga.
That's in Real Madrid's sights this season, and retaining the Champions League isn't beyond their scope either—even if they finish second in their group.
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