Liverpool Must Not Settle for Draws If They Are to Challenge for Title This Term
Post-match "fans react to" articles are part and parcel of the matchday content published by many online media outlets these days, offering a quick roundup of supporters' reactions via social media.
In reality, the snapshot of opinion can be presented however the media outlet desire, selecting a handful of tweets to meet whatever narrative they wish. Quite often you get national newspapers proclaiming "Liverpool fans this" or "Liverpool fans that," when, in reality, it's fewer than a dozen people on Twitter, who may or may not even be Liverpool fans.
Here are three headlines for these style of articles following Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Southampton on Saturday, one from a supporters' website—This Is Anfield—one from a local newspaper—the Liverpool Echo—and one from a national tabloid—the Daily Star.
- "Too many missed chances," "adequate point" - Liverpool fans react to frustrating draw at Southampton
- Liverpool fans react to Southampton stalemate - 'Newsflash: you can't win every game!'
- Livid Liverpool fans show frustration after draw at Southampton
You can probably guess which one is which, and certainly which one is from the national tabloid attempting to spin and sensationalise fewer than 10 fan reactions on social media—the digital capital of hyperbole.
Alas, with such headlines and so many fans consumed by social media, there can be quite an overreaction to any game when your team doesn't win.
Prior to the Reds' trip to the south coast, This Is Anfield's Henry Jackson had pre-empted the dropped points and called for calm. "Should Liverpool fail to pick up a victory on Saturday, what must be avoided is a needless overreaction from the Liverpool fanbase," he wrote.
It was a game, as Jackson noted, that had all the potential for dropped points—taking place after the international break, missing Adam Lallana through injury, Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane all travelling vast distances on international duty and at a stadium where Liverpool collapsed from 2-0 up at half-time to lose 3-2 just six months ago.
Liverpool had enough chances to win the game, with Mane, Coutinho and Firmino all missing one-on-one opportunities.
Fans would be right to be frustrated at such a lack of ruthlessness and perhaps too would be left pondering quite why Daniel Sturridge—who hadn't left the country during the international break—wasn't given an opportunity, let alone left on the bench until the 78th minute.
But that's football.
However, there is some logic in not accepting draws—none evidenced more than Liverpool's 2008/09 season.
In '08/09, Rafa Benitez's Liverpool side were at their absolute best, featuring a spine of Pepe Reina, Jamie Carragher and Sami Hyypia, Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano, and Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres. They blitzed eight goals past Real Madrid and Manchester United in the same week.
They also went the entire 38-game season with only two defeats—only Chelsea in 2004/05 (one defeat) and Arsenal (unbeaten) in 2003/04 have ever lost fewer games across a Premier League season.
It wasn't defeats that lost Benitez's side the title, it was the 11 draws they had during the season that saw them finish four points behind Manchester United.
Admittedly, 86 points is often enough to win you the title—Chelsea won it with that amount the following season, United won it with just 80 points the season after, and Leicester City won it with 81 last year.
But Liverpool's 11 draws were where the title was lost—only three teams drew more (13), and one of them was relegated.
Of those 11 draws, seven arrived at Anfield—against Aston Villa, Stoke City, Fulham, West Ham United, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal—with four draws away from home, at Arsenal, Stoke, Everton and Wigan Athletic.
The away 0-0 vs. Stoke in January is one that often sticks in the mind for Liverpool supporters—with Gerrard hitting the post in stoppage time.
Psychology of a Point
One major problem with accepting draws is that mentally there is less of a reaction. A defeat spurs players into reacting in their next game, a draw isn't exposed in the same manner.
Speaking after the 1-1 draw with Tottenham Hotspur in August, defender Dejan Lovren spoke of the disappointment of not getting three points but surmised it was "a good point."
Such cliches cannot be accepted if you are to challenge for a title.
Speaking after the draw at Southampton, Klopp said it was "absolutely OK," noting that the result was "not perfect but performance much better than expected."
Privately, though, Klopp will be fully aware that such results cannot become acceptable longer term if his side are to challenge for the title—especially at home.
Just look at Tottenham this season—unbeaten but four points behind leaders Chelsea due to drawing six of their opening 12 games.
Draws
That 2008/09 season, Manchester United drew just six games, losing four.
So what if Liverpool had gone all-out attack in six of those 11 they drew—gone absolutely all-out attack, as United often did, especially at Old Trafford under Sir Alex Ferguson when he'd often end with four forwards on the pitch—and grabbed the inevitable late winner?
If in those six games Liverpool had actually gone on to lose two of them but gain a winner in three of the other four, they'd have had four more points overall (10 points as opposed to six).
Four points was the amount United won the league by. Liverpool would have won the title on goal difference.
United only drew two and lost one at home that season—Liverpool drew seven at Anfield. That's where the title was won and lost.
So while draws away to Tottenham or Southampton are acceptable in the short term, it would be draws at Anfield that should ring alarm bells.
This year's title race looks like being a very close one, and ultimately home form will prove key. We're likely to be looking at the 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons when the two Manchester clubs won the league with a home record of played 19, won 18, drawn one.
Use of Subs
Perhaps much of Liverpool's failure to turn draws into wins in 2008/09 was due to the lack of options Benitez had on his bench, with Nabil El Zhar and David Ngog his go-to attacking options.
In that aforementioned 0-0 at Stoke, Benitez had rested Torres, going with Dirk Kuyt up front, while Robbie Keane—who was sold in January—was an unused sub.
That isn't the case this season for Klopp, though, because he has a wealth of quality attacking options, with Sturridge and Divock Origi chief among them. That is perhaps the most surprising and frustrating aspect of the draw at Southampton, where Origi only came on in the 90th minute.
Indeed, Klopp appears more reluctant to make subs this season, as evidenced by an analysis by Andrew Beasley, which shows Klopp's subs last season contributed to a goal every 90 minutes on average but are contributing only every 236 minutes so far this season.
Klopp must use his subs effectively to ensure his side do not fall into the trap of accepting a point at Anfield.
The Reds' next four league games are against Sunderland (home), Bournemouth (away), West Ham (home) and Middlesbrough (away). They cannot afford to accept draws in any of those if they are to sustain a title challenge this season.
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