Bowl Projections 2016: Updated CFP Predictions for Week 12

Following Week 10, the College Football Playoff was free of drama.

The Alabama Crimson Tide, Michigan Wolverines, Clemson Tigers and Washington Huskies were the clear-cut Top Four, with the Ohio State Buckeyes and Louisville Cardinals lurking. 

That has all changed.

The Wolverines, Tigers and Huskies were all upset in Week 11, which opened the door for the Buckeyes and Cardinals to move up and knock Michigan and Washington from their spots. 

Before the latest CFP rankings are revealed Tuesday evening, here's an updated look at which teams could compete in the semifinal bowl games:

Bowl Game	Date	Matchup
Fiesta Bowl	Dec. 31	No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Louisville

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

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Nothing new here.

The Crimson Tide are the class of college football, and what we saw during Saturday's 51-3 win over Mississippi State should strike fear into the hearts of CFP contenders everywhere.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 28 of 37 passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns while using his arm to shred the Bulldogs secondary. Even scarier is that he ran for 100 yards and a score while using his legs as a supplementary attacking option.

"It's one of the things we've been wanting to do is try to develop some confidence in the passing game, and obviously he was able to do that very well today," head coach Nick Saban said after Saturday's win, per the Associated Press' John Zenor. "He got the ball to some of our playmakers down the field, and they had opportunities to make big plays."

If Hurts is going to sling the rock like that, opponents are in trouble. 

Alabama already ranks second nationally in scoring defense (12.2 points per game) and first in rushing defense (68.8 yards per game), so keeping enemy offenses in check is rarely a tall task. 

Factor into that equation an offense that can light up defenses, and the Tide may be unstoppable.

For now, it's safe to assume the SEC West champs will close out the regular season with wins over Chattanooga and Auburn before the conference title game rolls around. 

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes were on the outside looking in a week ago, but losses by Michigan, Clemson and Washington should allow Ohio State to vault up the standings and nestle into the No. 2 spot.

While it's easy to discount the Buckeyes' long-term playoff viability, since they don't control their own destiny in the Big Ten, there's no denying they're deserving of a spot for the time being. 

Although they have one loss to their name, the Buckeyes own wins over Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Compare that to the Wolverines—who tout victories over Penn State, Wisconsin and Colorado, plus a defeat at the hands of four-loss Iowa—and Ohio State should leapfrog its bitter rival when the Week 11 rankings are released.

However, there's no telling whether Ohio State's standing in the playoff picture will be permanent. 

By virtue of Michigan's loss to Iowa and Ohio State's loss to Penn State, the Nittany Lions would win the Big Ten East Division and vie for the conference title if they win out.

At that point, the selection committee would be in a tough spot, choosing between Ohio State and the conference champion, since Michigan would have two losses. 

"If that happens, Ohio State could either be the first team in the playoff era to make the final four without a conference title or be left out, maybe to a two-loss Big Ten champ," Cleveland.com's Ari Wasserman wrote.

But if the Wolverines finish the regular season with wins over Ohio State and Indiana, Michigan would clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game and have a chance to nab the ever-important conference hardware, making the committee's decision easier.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers

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Clemson suffered a heartbreaking 43-42 defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh in Week 11, but the Tigers are still on firm footing when it comes to the playoff picture. 

No, losing to the four-loss Panthers doesn't reflect positively on the Tigers, but they control their destiny in the ACC Atlantic Division thanks to a win over Louisville on Oct. 1.

Sprinkle in a win over Florida State and a season-opening victory against Auburn, and Clemson has the quality wins to solidify a playoff berth if it can close the season without another blemish and capture its second consecutive ACC title.

"This team has the heart of a champion, and that will be revealed," head coach Dabo Swinney said, per TigerNet.com. "I believe that adversity builds character and reveals it. I know what this team is made of, and we'll fight back, respond and move on to the next one."

The Tigers will have a chance to rebound over the next two weeks against Wake Forest and South Carolina. If they can do just that and rattle off a couple of emphatic wins in advance of the ACC title game, it's difficult to envision the reigning conference champions falling short with another trip to the playoff on the line.

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals

Like the Buckeyes, the Cardinals figure to be beneficiaries of the chaos that unfolded throughout Week 11. 

Though Louisville doesn't own many signature wins, its 63-20 drubbing of Florida State and narrow 42-36 road loss to Clemson reflect positively on Lamar Jackson and Co. 

"No game this season has been played with more hype or pressure or within a more insane atmosphere than Lamar Jackson's visit to Death Valley in Week 5," ESPN.com's Ryan McGee wrote. "That committee also knows that the Cardinals came within a few yards of being in position to tie the score or win the game via a PAT in the closing ticks."

The Cardinals will close their regular season with games against Houston and Kentucky, but unless Clemson slips up again, they won't travel to Orlando, Florida, for the ACC Championship Game. 

That could put them in a precarious position ahead of the final rankings reveal, but the Cardinals' ability to hang with some of the nation's toughest teams and blow the doors off inferior competition proves they have what it takes to compete for the national title.