New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (6-1) will get a chance to avenge their only loss of the season when they visit the Buffalo Bills (4-3) on Sunday as solid road favorites.

The Patriots have gone a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread since losing at home to the Bills without quarterback Tom Brady, who has been nothing short of outstanding in his return from a four-game suspension. 

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.7-20.4 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England is an unreal 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 against the spread in its last 12 trips to Buffalo, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database, and this time Brady will be there to go for the split of the regular-season series.

As much as Bills head coach Rex Ryan deserves credit for leading his team to a shutout victory on the road in the last meeting, the Patriots were playing a third-string rookie quarterback in Jacoby Brissett who was starting his second game. There is a big step up from him to backup Jimmy Garoppolo—who sat out with an injury—so imagine the giant leap to the future Hall of Famer Brady.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo had the perfect game plan for New England without Brady, using a strong running game to control the clock and counting on quarterback Tyrod Taylor to make plays. Statistically, the Bills were not overly impressive offensively, but running back LeSean McCoy was effective, and they will need his presence again here in order keep the Patriots offense off the field.

McCoy is considered questionable with a hamstring injury and played last week in spite of it, which may have been one of the reasons the team lost. However, Buffalo has gone 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games after losing as a favorite.

Smart pick

Monitor McCoy's status closely leading up to kickoff of this key AFC East matchup, as he has been a game-breaker at times this year when healthy. However, the odds of him being 100 percent are slim, and the Bills will not be able to keep up with New England if they rely solely on their passing game.

That will be the goal of the Patriots, who have won nine in a row with a 7-1-1 mark ATS when losing the previous game in a matchup. They will make it 10 straight with yet another win and cover at Buffalo and against Ryan.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road against the Bills.

The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after an ATS loss.

The total has gone under in nine of the Bills' last 12 games in Week 8.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.