NASCAR at Martinsville 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Goody's Fast Relief 500
The Chase for the Sprint Cup rolls into "The Paperclip"—Martinsville Speedway—for the Round of 8, the only round in which the field of Chasers slashes in half by the end.
Who remains? Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch—that’s who.
This round, as far as tracks are concerned, is the most diverse: a half-mile oval, a 1.5-mile speedway and a one-mile oval.
And perhaps what makes this round so salty is the quality drivers who got bumped from the Round of 12. Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski share eight wins this season, and both exited Talladega with such sour tastes in their mouths that both expressed (during the NBCSN broadcast) how badly they wanted to win the next four races.
That, of course, has major implications for the remaining Chasers, which makes points a premium in this round—if you believe eliminated drivers capable of snatching auto-bids from eligible drivers.
That’s where we are, so let’s preview the heck out of Martinsville and the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 (green flag 1:13 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
Current Chase Seedings
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1. Joey Logano
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Carl Edwards
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Kurt Busch
8. Kyle Busch
A Flash Power Ranking of the Remaining Field
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Should we just advance Harvick to Homestead now? With his unilateral dominance at Phoenix the past three years, Harvick is assured of advancing. To quote Forrest Gump, Harvick and Phoenix are like "peas and carrots."
Something Logano said after the Hellmann’s 500 really tipped his hand as to who may be the best of the remaining Chasers. I don’t have the quote verbatim, but Logano did tell NBCSN he thinks Kyle Busch is the best of the remaining drivers, now that Truex kicked an engine.
These drivers—like jockeys or horse trainers—have a knack for who is really the horse to beat in a given race. To hear Logano drop KyBu’s name so quickly should not be taken lightly.
Here’s how I’d power rank the remainder of the field.
1. Kyle Busch
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Joey Logano
7. Kurt Busch
8. Carl Edwards
Man, you could make a case for any of these drivers to be in the top four.
The tournament rolls on.
Has This Chase Format Been Exposed?
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Two years ago, when this new win-and-you’re in/win-and-advance format of the Chase took hold, it rocked.
It added a new layer of pressure to the existing tournament. No driver could coast through the 10-race Chase and claim the Sprint Cup.
But it has problems that bubbled up two years ago, turned ugly in 2015 and came to a head at Talladega this year.
Let’s take a peek at Talladega because two big issues arose during that race.
Truex and Keselowski were two of the most dominant cars all season. Truex won two Chase races in the opening round, while Kez played it safe and racked up three top-fives in the Round of 16.
Two blown engines and, suddenly, two championship contenders are gone. Imagine LeBron James losing a shoe in the NBA Finals, having to leave the court with nobody coming in for relief and his team loses because—well, doo-doo happens. You get the idea. Chance plays too big of a role.
The other problem is what we saw with Joe Gibbs Racing. Technically, what Edwards, Kenseth and Kyle Busch did—dropping to the back of the field all race to avoid wrecking—wasn’t illegal, but it wasn’t racing. All three expressed that during their post-race interviews with NBCSN. The head coach effectively castrated the three drivers by instructing them to ride it out and avoid trouble.
That plan could have been just as bad for them if their lead car blew a tire or one of the three had a perilous pit stop. It was like taking a knee in the first quarter.
It bought them a ticket to the next round, but it left an acrid taste in the mouth. Tactics such as that only work at a restrictor-plate track like Talladega, but it threw the spirit of competition out the window netting.
JGR, if nothing else, saw the forest for the trees. But fans of the sport and fans of those drivers wasted a perfectly good Sunday afternoon.
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Storm Coming for Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick?
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Kevin Harvick doesn’t strike me as a team player. He routinely rips his own team when it messes up on pit road. Makes for good commentary, but there’s probably a mechanic—or two—who wants to throw a fuel can at him. Maybe he’s every bit as kind behind the garage bay door as he is vicious in front of it. We don’t know.
So how likely is it that Harvick would help a teammate not associated with the No. 4 Chevy, even if that car is another Stewart-Haas Racing stock car?
After the Hellmann’s 500, Busch brushed up alongside Harvick, to which Harvick then shoved KB through the window of the No. 41 car. A crewman for the No. 41 car allowed the shove and then matter-of-factly escorted Harvick away.
Busch said Harvick "has a misunderstanding of the call at the end of the race. … We have to work together to beat all these other teams…he knows that."
Harvick added that Busch "cleaned the side of our car out after the checkered flag. I don't really understand that."
These two are notorious hot heads whom an all-time hot head in Tony Stewart hired. Stewart also employs Danica Patrick—someone else known for blowing up like an engine.
Busch later added, "For us, we are great teammates. We are doing good together. We have to work together to beat all these other teams out there and (Harvick) knows that.”
Yeah, but, nothing will stand in Harvick’s way. That’s his strength, and that would make him a pretty ruthless tennis player. But in the weird dynamic of NASCAR’s teams, Busch shouldn’t trust Harvick, and Harvick should not trust Busch, for that matter.
Dark-Horse Pick: Jeff Gordon
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Jeff Gordon returns to Martinsville, the site of last year’s biggest moment, this time in the No. 88 car.
In 2015, he won for the ninth time at the track thus vaulting him into the final round of the Chase. The post-race celebration saw no burnout. Rather Gordon jumped out of his car and celebrated like he’d won the Super Bowl.
It was his last win as a driver, No. 93.
"I'm coming back next year!" Gordon quipped about his impending retirement, per NASCAR.com. "This is the sweetest, most amazing feeling. I am so proud of this team. You want to talk about holding back emotions; right now man, wow, we're going to Homestead! I can't believe it."
How prophetic.
Though he joked at the time, Gordon, in fact, did come out of the bullpen for Rick Hendrick, and with so many wins at Martinsville, why not pick him here? He was a dark horse to win the race a year ago as his team’s speed wasn’t up to par.
And thanks to Kenseth plowing Logano into the fence, it opened the door for the No. 24 car to snatch that checkered flag.
A top-10 is within reach for this driver and this team. Maybe more.
And the Winner Is...Kyle Busch
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This just in: The defending Sprint Cup champion is still alive.
Kyle Busch survived Talladega, along with his band of merry men, and now enters a strong stretch of races for the No. 18 team.
He made a mockery of Martinsville in the spring, leading 352 of the 500 laps to win for the first time at the famed "Paperclip."
Busch said, per Bob Pockrass’ ESPN.com story, in the spring:
"I try to give everything that I do 100 percent, whether that's driving race cars or owning the race team. Being passionate about the things that I do, all I've ever known is the sport of NASCAR, so I give it all I've got. I have great people behind me who have the same beliefs. I wouldn't just run a race to come out here and make laps.
"
Given Logano’s endorsement of Busch, it’s hard to vote against someone who’s about to get serious about his title contention.
Reaching the Round of 8 is like cresting a big hill. Now the field can see the end, and it’s downhill from here.
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