Steelers Still in Position to Take AFC North Despite Inconsistent 4-3 Start

After seven weeks of NFL football, the 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers have the worst record of an AFC divisional leader. That same record is equal to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South, who have lost two straight, and the Houston Texans may be able to match depending on their performance against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Still, when a divisional leader is on a cold streak and one game from hitting .500, questions arise about their staying power, especially if you're like the Steelers, who lost their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a knee injury last week.

When Roethlisberger was on the field with Pittsburgh, his Steelers were blowing out teams. For reference, here are what the 4-3 teams leaguewide look like when you juxtapose their multiscore wins (wins of eight or more points), close games (games withing seven points) and multiscore losses (losses of eight or more points) under their starting passers.

Team	Multi Wins	Close	Multi Losses
Buffalo	4	3	0
Pittsburgh	4	0	2
Atlanta	2	5	0
Washington	1	5	1
Detroit	0	7	0
New York Giants	0	6	1

All together, four of the five other 4-3 teams in the league, the Atlanta Falcons, Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions and New York Giants, have combined for just three wins by multiple scores in 28 games, while the Roethlisberger Steelers were able to net four in just six games with him behind center. Overall, with two-thirds of Pittsburgh's games registering as multiscore wins under their starting passer and face of the franchise, they had the highest percentage of multiscore wins among the group.

On the field, they looked more like legitimate title contenders in the AFC than the grouping they're paired with in terms of wins and losses, especially when you take into account their 38-16 win on the road against Washington, a 4-3 squad, in prime time to open up the season on Monday Night Football.

The question now is this: Can they get Roethlisberger back in time before they lose their lead in the North?

ESPN's Chris Mortensen (per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com) stated that Roethlisberger's meniscus surgery could keep the quarterback off the field between two to six weeks from the time of his injury, which was in Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins:

Luckily for the Steelers, if he is back after just two weeks, that means the only game he would have missed was Week 7's matchup, as they head into a bye week in Week 8. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh fans, though, Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted owner Art Rooney stated that two weeks was the "best case" for wishing their passer back on the field, with that same two-to six-week timetable being more "fair."

While Sports Injury Predictor has 13 injuries recorded for Roethlisberger's 13-year career, he has only one other knee issue—a four-game MCL injury in 2015—on record. Without seeing a history of how he treats that type of an injury, it's hard to definitively say when he will return, but if you forecast into the future, you can get a good look at what Pittsburgh is up against with or without him.

Below is the Steelers' remaining schedule and their opponents' rankings heading into Week 7 of the season, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which takes efficiency and strength of schedule into account:

Team	DVOA
at Baltimore	15th
Dallas	5th
at Cleveland	31st
at Indianapolis	28th
New York Giants	17th
at Buffalo	3rd
at Cincinnati	25th
Baltimore	15th
Cleveland	31st

For reference, the Steelers were 12th in DVOA, even after the Miami loss, under Roethlisberger. That means that in terms of pure efficiency this season, only two of their next nine opponents—Dallas in Week 10 and Buffalo in Week 14—are better squads according to the metric.

Dallas falls in that two-to-six-week spectrum, but it would appear that Roethlisberger will get at least one warm-up game against the New York Giants before potentially facing the Bills, according to the timetable set out. On top of that, the team's backup passer, Landry Jones, may play during the fifth and sixth weeks of Roethlisberger's recovery, as the team is facing the Cleveland Browns and the Indianapolis Colts, two of the five worst franchises in the advanced math in 2016.

It's not unreasonable to think that this squad can finish with a record around 11-5 if Roethlisberger returns immediately, which is tremendous considering that no one else in the North is above .500 on the year. If their starting passer does need the full six weeks but Jones is able to pull out two wins against the Browns and Colts, 10-6 isn't too high of a goal to set, either.

When you think about divisional races, though, everything is relative to what talent you have to compete against. If Pittsburgh were in the NFC East or NFC North, they'd be the third-ranked team, while they'd be the fourth-ranked franchise in the AFC West based on their record.

More so than even the health of their quarterback, the Steelers' chances to make it to the playoffs depend on what the 3-4 Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals look like down the stretch, as the 0-7 Browns are extreme long shots to make any sort of postseason splash.

The Ravens are the 15th team according to DVOA, and here is their schedule moving forward:

Team	DVOA
Pittsburgh	12th
Cleveland	31st
at Dallas	5th
Cincinnati	25th
Miami	20th
at New England	7th
Philadelphia	4th
at Pittsburgh	12th
at Cincinnati	25th

If Baltimore play to its averages, they should only be favored against four of those nine opponents. Unlike Pittsburgh, who only plays against two top-12 teams—that number is significant because 12 of 32 franchises are represented in the NFL's playoff system—the Ravens have to go toe-to-toe with five top-tier squads.

The idea of the Ravens finishing 7-9 is problematic, because if the Steelers only win four games against statistically lesser opponents once Roethlisberger returns while losing four Jones starts down the stretch, Pittsburgh would still finish with an 8-8 record.

The other potential contender in the division is the Bengals, who ranked 25th in DVOA entering Week 7. Here's a look at their schedule:

Team	DVOA
Washington	11th
at New York Giants	17th
Buffalo	3rd
at Baltimore	15th
Philadelphia	4th
at Cleveland	31st
Pittsburgh	12th
at Houston	30th
Baltimore	15th

If you thought Pittsburgh and Baltimore staring at potential 4-5 finishes was dark, the Bengals are only ranked above two of their next nine opponents in DVOA. It doesn't take a math major to figure out how a 5-11 team could miss the playoffs.

Now, with an extra week of added data, the metric could change, but with it only being one-seventh of a slice of the season, you shouldn't expect too much of a swing between the Week 7 and Week 8 rankings, and Pittsburgh's will include a blowout loss under a backup passer which isn't indicative of what the team can bring to the table under Roethlisberger. 

According to Odds Shark, the Pittsburgh-New England line swung by 6.5 points away from the Steelers after it was known that their starting quarterback would miss the game. Vegas is usually the measuring stick for how teams should be projected moving forward. They don't build those shiny new casinos because sportsbooks are hemorrhaging money.

If 4-3 Atlanta lost seven points on every game they have played this year, they'd be 2-5. Washington would be 1-6. Detroit and the New York Giants would be 0-7.

Any sort of nuanced way of looking at teams deeper than wins and losses, be it point differential in wins and losses, advanced metrics or gambling swings, will tell you that even though the Steelers only have a one-game distance between the Ravens and Bengals breathing down their back, when they have Roethlisberger, they're clearly the favorite in the AFC North.

Per Odds Shark, Pittsburgh is still valued between -113 (bet $100 to win $88.50) and -300 to win the division, with between a 53 and 75 percent chance. On the flip side, the highest number for either Baltimore or Cincinnati winning the division is +205, which gives the Bengals less than a 33 percent shot at winning the banner.

Even if the Steelers don't get back Roethlisberger until Week 13, they are still projected to lead the AFC North down the stretch, even if they lose two manageable games against Cleveland and Indianapolis under Jones, who beat the eventual 13-3 Arizona Cardinals last season as a spot starter.

Don't fall for the illusion of 4-3 and 3-4 records. How Pittsburgh started off 4-1 holds more weight moving forward than how Baltimore and Cincinnati are within one game of them.