
World Series 2016: Series Preview and Game-by-Game Predictions
Here we go.
The 2016 World Series begins Tuesday at Progressive Field (8:08 p.m. ET on Fox). In one dugout, the Cleveland Indians; in the other dugout, the Chicago Cubs.
Between them, 176 years of championship-free baseball. And in living rooms from Ohio to Illinois, a whole lot of angst and anticipation.
You don't need to be told, but we'll tell you anyway: Cleveland hasn't hoisted a Commissioner's Trophy since 1948, while the Cubs' drought stretches back to 1908. Someone is going to bathe in champagne chilled by the last ice age.
As we await the first pitch and all the pitches that follow, let's preview some key storylines and run through a set of game-by-game predictions. One caveat: This is the postseason, when prognostications fly out the window and the improbable frequently becomes reality.
The Cubs and Indians are in the World Series—what further proof do you need?
Projected Lineups
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Projected Cubs Lineup
- CF Dexter Fowler
- 3B Kris Bryant
- 1B Anthony Rizzo
- LF Ben Zobrist
- SS Addison Russell
- RF Jason Heyward
- 2B Javier Baez
- C David Ross
The top four spots in Cubs skipper Joe Maddon's lineup are locked in. Dexter Fowler sets the table, followed by National League MVP front-runner Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist.
Bryant has been superlative, posting a .948 postseason OPS. After a frigid start, Rizzo picked up four hits in the final two games of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, including two doubles and a home run.
Jason Heyward (.071/.133/.179 playoff slash line) has defined anemic. But Addison Russell has chipped in a pair of home runs, and Javier Baez (.342 average, seven RBI) has shone like a rising superstar with the lumber and the leather.
Veteran David Ross will likely catch Jon Lester in Game 1, but expect rookie Willson Contreras, who has gone 8-for-20 with a home run, to get into the squat as well.
The Cubs have options for the designated hitter slot in the American League-park games, including Contreras, the powerful Jorge Soler and wild card Kyle Schwarber (more on that in a moment).
This is precisely the kind of group Maddon covets, full of defensively versatile players who work counts and can crank the ball out of the park.
Yes, they lead all postseason qualifiers with 88 strikeouts. But they also pace the pack with 48 runs scored.
Projected Indians Lineup
Vs. LHP
- CF Rajai Davis
- 2B Jason Kipnis
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 1B Mike Napoli
- DH Carlos Santana
- 3B Jose Ramirez
- RF Brandon Guyer
- LF Coco Crisp
- C Roberto Perez
Vs. RHP
- DH Carlos Santana
- 2B Jason Kipnis
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 1B Mike Napoli
- 3B Jose Ramirez
- RF Lonnie Chisenhall
- LF Coco Crisp
- CF Tyler Naquin
- C Roberto Perez
Indians manager Terry Francona has a few set pieces in his lineup, including Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Mike Napoli in the 2-3-4 spots.
Lindor is hitting .323 with a .924 OPS and two home runs in his first postseason. Kipnis has a couple of homers but is hitting just .167, while Napoli is hitting .179 with 10 strikeouts in 28 at-bats.
Coco Crisp has been a nice surprise, chipping in two homers. The rest of the outfield is mix-and-match, with Rajai Davis, Rookie of the Year contender Tyler Naquin, Brandon Guyer and Lonnie Chisenhall serving as the platoon puzzle pieces.
After leading the American League with 134 stolen bases in the regular season, the Indians have swiped just three bases in the playoffs while being caught twice. Still, speed is part of their attack, particularly when Davis is in the leadoff spot.
As with Chicago, flexibility and depth are the hallmarks. Cleveland's offense hasn't set fire to October, but this bunch doesn't have any automatic outs.
Projected Rotations
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Projected Indians Rotation
- RHP Corey Kluber
- RHP Trevor Bauer
- RHP Josh Tomlin
- LHP Ryan Merritt/RHP Danny Salazar
Corey Kluber will get the ball in Game 1, per Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com. No surprise there. Kluber was the Indians' ace in the regular season and has posted a 0.98 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 18.1 postseason innings.
After that, the water gets murky.
Trevor Bauer could go in Game 2, assuming his drone-injured finger is up to the task. That would allow Josh Tomlin to pitch in Game 3 at Wrigley Field on Friday, which matters because Tomlin has gone 6-for-12 in his career as a hitter. It's a small sample, but those things can turn a series.
Kluber could go again on short rest in Game 4, or Cleveland could turn to 24-year-old lefty Ryan Merritt, who made his second big league start in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series and tossed 4.1 scoreless frames.
All-Star Danny Salazar, out since Sept. 9 with a forearm strain, is likewise in the mix after throwing a three-inning simulated game Sunday.
"It's progressed to the point now where I think we need to take a good, long look, because he looks pretty healthy," Francona said of Salazar, per Meisel. "So that's what we'll do."
Projected Cubs Rotation
- LHP Jon Lester
- RHP Jake Arrieta
- RHP Kyle Hendricks
- RHP John Lackey
Lester will go in Game 1, followed by reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, reigning MLB ERA leader Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey.
That's a change from the rotations Maddon went with in the previous two rounds, with Arrieta and Hendricks flipped to give the latter more rest after he pitched Saturday, per CBS Chicago.
Lester and Lackey are grizzled, playoff-tested veterans. Hendricks is coming off a masterful start in Game 6 of the NLCS in which he faced the minimum number of hitters through 7.1 innings.
Arrieta has been the least reliable Cubs starter, coughing up 12 hits and six earned runs in 11 innings this postseason. On the positive side, he's issued just one walk next to 10 strikeouts and showed flashes of his dominant self.
Key Questions, Storylines
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Rest vs. Rust
The Indians haven't played since last Wednesday, when they clinched the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre.
Five days isn't that long of a layoff, and it's surely helped Cleveland players cool their heels and nurse various bumps and bruises.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are rolling into Cleveland 48 hours removed from their historic, emotional win in Game 6 against Los Angeles. The bubbly and beer have scarcely been scrubbed from their uniforms.
So we get the age-old, unquantifiable momentum vs. rest debate.
It'll even out after a game or two, but it's something to watch for early on.
Can Andrew Miller Keep It Rolling?
Indians left-hander Andrew Miller has turned in one of the great pitching performances by a reliever in postseason history. Through 11.2 innings, he's allowed zero runs, two walks, five hits and struck out 21.
There are Boston Red Sox and Blue Jays hitters waking up in cold sweats with Miller's wipeout slider flashing before their eyes. Count on it.
Along with closer Cody Allen (7.2 innings, 5 H, 3 BB, 0 ER, 12 SO), Miller has made the middle and late innings a death trap. If you don't score early against this team, you might as well pack it up.
"It's a lot of fun to try to wrap your head around how amazing Miller has become," FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan opined. "He's officially entered the realm of being one of the Fun Fact machines, and membership's reserved for the truly elite."
Can the Cubs burst his bubble of invincibility? Only Heyward, Rizzo, Ross and Zobrist have any history against him, but they have gone a combined 7-for-23. Ross stands out with three doubles, an RBI and a walk in five at-bats.
That's grasping at tiny-sample straws, though. With a fresh arm, expect Miller to keep pitching like a guy with the cheat codes scribbled under the brim of his cap.
Will Kyle Schwarber Contribute?
Kyle Schwarber hasn't played a major league game since April 7, when he tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee during an ugly outfield collision. So it's amazing we're even discussing the idea of his appearing in the World Series.
Schwarber has seen some action in the Arizona Fall League, and Cubs decision-makers are swinging the door open.
"We don't have to have our rosters set until [Tuesday]," Maddon said, per Teddy Mitrosilis of Fox Sports. "But right now, he's doing everything well and right, so he's giving us another option to think about."
CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney reported Tuesday morning that Chicago added Schwarber to its roster, but he almost surely won't play the field. As a left-handed power bat off the bench and a possible designated hitter, though, the 2014 first-round pick is a fascinating X-factor.
Shouldering the Weight of History
So much has already been written about the Cubs' and Indians' runs of futility. There's no need to belabor the point.
The players and coaches have deflected, insisting their pasts aren't a distraction.
"I think the biggest thing is nobody really cares in there about a curse or a goat or anything else," Lester said on Oct. 11, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Still, there must be some awareness of the stakes. Every city gets excited when its team marches to the Fall Classic. But the level of cathartic, unbridled ecstasy these Cubs and Indians fans have exuded vibrates at a higher frequency.
As the series wears on and the drama and scrutiny ratchet up, the players will be forced to deal with it—whether they believe in billy goats or not.
Game 1: Jon Lester Wins a Battle of Aces
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Kluber, as noted, has been excellent this postseason, even if the two-headed hydra of Miller and Allen has overshadowed him.
He'll be opposed in Game 1 by Lester, who owns a 0.86 ERA in 21 innings this postseason and a perfect 3-0 record in two previous World Series runs with the Red Sox.
This is a marquee pitching staredown. Even at Progressive Field—the third-most hitter-friendly yard in baseball, according to ESPN.com's Park Factors statistic—expect low scoring.
Ultimately, we'll hand it to the Cubs. Chicago will plate a couple of runs in the early innings as Lester keeps his World Series record unblemished.
Series: Cubs lead 1-0
Game 2: Jake Arrieta Wobbles, Indians Bullpen Locks It Down
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Talented as Arrieta is, his struggles go deeper than the 2016 postseason.
He posted a 4.60 regular-season ERA in September and October, and he didn't look like himself for much of the second half.
So while a rebound in Game 2 Wednesday (8:08 p.m. ET on Fox) is possible, we'll go with the Indians making hay, getting a few solid innings from Bauer and handing it off to Miller and Allen with familiar results.
Series: Series tied 1-1
Game 3: Indians Score Early, Ride Bullpen Again
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Hendricks was great Saturday and should benefit from the extra rest.
But the postseason never follows the script perfectly, and we'll bet the Indians will steal Friday's Game 3 (8:08 p.m. ET on Fox) at Wrigley behind some early offense. Including (why not?) a key knock from Tomlin.
Add a quality start from Tomlin, cue the Miller-Allen monster and watch the North Side faithful wring their hands in unison.
Series: Indians lead 2-1
Game 4: Cubs Bats, John Lackey Even the Series
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With a 2-1 lead, the Indians will save Kluber and go with either Salazar or Merritt in Saturday's Game 4 (8:08 p.m. ET on Fox).
The Cubs, meanwhile, will have a well-rested Lackey, who boasts a 3.26 ERA in 135.1 postseason innings and is 2-1 in the World Series.
Among Indians hitters, Davis is 12-for-35 with three doubles, a triple and four RBI against Lackey, so that's a matchup to watch.
But we'll give this to Lackey over a cobweb-ridden Salazar or an inexperienced Merritt. Plus, flame-throwing Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman—who has held Indians hitters to a combined .185 average—should be capable of going multiple innings if needed.
Series: Tied 2-2
Game 5: Lester Outduels Corey Kluber, Part 2
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A Lester-Kluber rematch will be the linchpin game.
It's tempting to lean toward Kluber, as good as he's been. But Lester was nails at Wrigley in 2016, going 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA.
If the Cubs can get a few runs on the board in the early innings, maybe with crowd-pleasing homers from the likes of Bryant and Rizzo, Lester should be able to get the ball to Chapman.
Yes, the Cubs closer has wobbled at times. His triple-digit heater and general ownage against Cleveland, however, ought to be enough to push Chicago to the brink of history in Sunday's Game 5 (8:15 p.m. ET on Fox).
Series: Cubs lead 3-2
Game 6: Arrieta and the Offense Come Through, Cubs Slay the Billy Goat
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Bauer's finger will be healed. The series will have moved back to Cleveland.
At this point, though, the tide will have turned. Fleeting as it is, momentum will be on the Cubbies' side. Their brash bats will respond with some early, silencing offense.
Meanwhile, Arrieta will find whatever ingredient he's been missing for the last few months and turn in a gutsy, if imperfect, performance.
The Indians won't go down without a fight. In the end, though, it will happen. Steve Bartman will be absolved. The ghost of Harry Caray will sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame." Bill Murray will weep.
The Cubs will win. The Cubs will win. And the most excruciating, enduring curse in the history of professional sports will be lifted.
Series: Cubs win 4-2
All statistics current as of Monday and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.







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