Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last five rivalry meetings with Cleveland Browns, including a sweep of the season series last year. The struggling Bengals hope for more of the same when they host the Browns on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.

Point spread: The Bengals opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.2-14.6 Bengals (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland may be winless at 0-6, but it is 2-2 ATS over its last four games and should be better than that. Last week, the Browns came up with a back-door cover against the Tennessee Titans. Three weeks ago, they led Washington into the fourth quarter, before giving up the last 14 points of the game to miss the cover by four. And earlier this year, they let the Baltimore Ravens score the final 25 points to miss the cover by one.

So with the turn of a play here and there, Cleveland could be 4-1 ATS over the last month-plus, with a couple of wins.

Last week, the Browns trailed the Titans by a point at the half, fell down by 15, but scored two touchdowns in the last two minutes to cover as seven-point dogs. Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns, without an interception, and on the season has now completed 66 percent of his throws, with four touchdowns and just one pick.

If Cleveland could just play a full four quarters it could keep this one close.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati is glad to be home, following consecutive road losses against the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. Last week, the Bengals lost to the Patriots 35-17, but that game was closer than that final score might indicate. Cincinnati led New England 14-10 midway through the third quarter and only trailed 25-17 well into the fourth, but it gave up the game's last 10 points to miss the cover as a seven-point underdog.

The Bengals outrushed the Patriots 120-79 and won time of possession by a 32/28 margin, but along the way, they got stuffed on three plays from the New England one-yard line and got sacked for a safety. That's nine points right there.

Cincinnati has made the playoffs five straight seasons but at 2-4 better start kicking things in gear to make it this season.

Smart pick

The Bengals are still the better team, and they will probably win this game, but that spread is inflated by at least a couple of points toward the home team. As strange as it may sound, the smart bet here is the Browns.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in the Browns' last four games against the Bengals.

The total has gone under in the Browns' last five games in Week 7.

The Browns are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after an ATS win.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.