New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs will be trying to extend their straight-up win streak on home turf to nine Sunday when they host the surging New Orleans Saints.

The 3-2 Chiefs have struggled with consistency, alternating between SU wins and losses this season, but have been dominant at home, winning outright in seven straight, all as home chalk. The 2-3 Saints have scored 76 total points during their current two-game tear and have seen the point total finish over in six of their past eight outings.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.8-17.6 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Saints can cover the spread

Quarterback Drew Brees threw for an eye-popping 465 yards and four touchdowns in last week's 41-38 win over the beleaguered Carolina Panthers, lifting the Saints offense to No. 2 in the league rankings with 413.4 yards per game and 31.0 points per game.

The Saints have emerged as road warriors, winning three of four SU away from the Superdome, and have covered in an impressive 13 of 16 while pegged as road underdogs by seven or more points.

Striking first could give the Saints a big lift against Kansas City, which has been held scoreless in the first quarter of each of its past four SU defeats and tallied just nine total first-half points over its past three losses.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

While the Saints have been piling up the points, the Chiefs defense has been downright stingy, holding opponents to 14 or fewer points in nine of 16 at home, including a 24-3 win over the New York Jets in their last home contest in Week 3.

The Chiefs pass defense has also made life difficult for opposing passers, with a league-leading nine interceptions, and it has yet to allow over 287 passing yards in a game this season.

After running for a career-high 131 yards and one score last week in Oakland, look for running back Spencer Ware to regularly challenge the Saints rush defense, which has surrendered 167 or more yards in two of the team's three losses.

Smart pick

Brees remains the straw that stirs the drink in New Orleans. When Brees is on, the Saints are a prolific scoring machine and they have posted ATS wins in seven of their past 10 games.

The defense-oriented Chiefs have won five of their last eight games SU when favored by a touchdown or more, but they have failed to cover in their past three outings despite holding opponents to just 11.3 points per game.

Look for Kansas City to struggle to earn the SU win and fail to cover as heavy home chalk.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in the Saints' last three games against the Chiefs.

The visiting team is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games in this matchup.

The Saints are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning records.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.