National League Division Series
When the Dodgers got off to a blazing start earlier this season, I was very skeptical of how good they really were. I didn’t think that their ridiculously good record meant that they were suddenly the favorite to win the pennant, and I didn’t expect their luck to last.
I ended up being right on the latter notion, and I think I’m going to end up being right on the first. One could argue that the Dodgers are the better of these two teams, but the three—and four—man starting pitching rotations used in the playoffs undoubtedly give the Cardinals the edge here. Even with home field advantage, the Dodgers are going to be doomed in this series because of the Cardinals’ highly superior three-man rotation.
Very few teams, if any, would be able to beat St. Louis in a five game series, simply because of their incredible three-man rotation. The Dodgers might get one win out of this series, but I doubt they’ll get more. Cardinals in four.
This series is perhaps the most intriguing of the Division Series matchups, because it pits the past two National League pennant winners against each other, and it also just so happens to be a rematch of a 2007 NLDS matchup.
My gut has been giving me a bad feeling about this series, and I’ve been trying to determine why. The best answer I can come up with is that, as a Phillies fan, I’m afraid that a loss to the Rockies could create a bad bell-curve like trend for the Phillies’ success. Such a curve would start to peak with a loss to the Rockies, leading up to the Phillies’ World Series win, and then begins to plummet with another loss to the Rockies.
Beyond that worry, I can’t think of any other valid reason why the Rockies should be favored in this series. In 2007, I picked the Rockies to beat my Phillies in the NLDS. This time, the Rockies aren’t in the midst of a ridiculous hot streak, and their pitching is a whole lot weaker. The Phillies, on the other hand, have a lot of experience and success under their belt, and have a pitching staff that is a whole lot stronger. Think of it this way—Ublado Jimenez, who was third in the Rockies rotation for the 2007 series, is now the Rockies ace, with Aaron Cook, who didn’t even make it onto the Rockies NLDS rotation that year, is their number two.
The Phillies, meanwhile, will have Cole Hamels in their rotation, while their other two starters from that series—Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer—can’t even make the Phillies five-man rotation these days, due to the Phillies much-improved starting rotation. This change could be dismissed as irrelevant because two years have passed, but to do so would be to ignore a clear change in how these two teams match up.
The Phillies will untie that knot in my stomach, and get their revenge on the Rockies (even though they claim that they aren’t worried about doing so). Phillies in four.
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