Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans will be looking for a fifth straight regular-season win on home turf in Week 6 when they host the division-rival Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night.

The Texans have lost two of their past three games both straight up and against the spread but maintain the top spot in the AFC South on the strength of an unblemished home record. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is 1-4 SU and ATS in its past five road dates, surrendering an average of 40 points per game in those four defeats.

Point spread: The Texans opened as three-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.4-15.0 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Coming off a loss to Jacksonville in London, the Colts showed no signs of jet lag last week. Andrew Luck led four scoring drives on their first four possessions, handing Indianapolis its first halftime lead of the season en route to a 29-23 win over Chicago.

Striking early in Houston would place added pressure on Texans pivot Brock Osweiler, who is coming off his worst performance of the season in last week's 31-13 loss in Minnesota. Osweiler has now thrown seven picks against just six scores.

Also expect Luck to test the Texans' 27th-ranked rush defense by regularly feeding veteran running back Frank Gore, who has averaged 75 rushing yards in his past three games and ran for 98 yards and a touchdown in last season's 27-20 win in Houston.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston's offense could get nothing started last week against an impenetrable Vikings defense but should have an easier time against the Colts' 31st-ranked defense, which wilted under distributed attacks in a pair of road losses.

Osweiler's struggles should spur a return to fundamentals and greater reliance on a ground game that has tallied over 114 yards per game in the team's three home wins this season.

With J.J. Watt gone for the year, Jadeveon Clowney will continue to play a larger role on a Houston defense that has limited opponents to 14 or fewer points five times during their current 7-2 SU and ATS run at home.

Smart pick

While Houston has been tough to beat at home, it has been unable to solve the Colts, who have averaged 29 points per game in three straight SU and ATS victories at NRG Stadium.

And the Texans have tallied more than 19 points just once in their past four games, with Osweiler finding the end zone after halftime on just one occasion since a Week 1 comeback win over the Bears. Look for a confident offense to power the Colts to an SU and ATS victory in Houston.

Betting trends

The Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Texans.

The Texans are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home.

The Texans are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against teams with losing records.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.