Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (4-1) will try to beat the Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) for the sixth time in seven meetings when they host them Sunday as solid home favorites.

New England fans will welcome quarterback Tom Brady to Gillette Stadium for the first time this season after he led the team to a 33-13 rout of the Cleveland Browns as a 10-point road favorite in his return last week.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.4-15.6 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Like just about every game with Brady in the lineup, the perception is that the Patriots are overpriced based on the betting public. As one of the most popular teams on which to wager, New England seems to be favored by too many points in this spot, especially against a dangerous Cincinnati team that has underachieved so far this year.

The Bengals are playing the second of consecutive road games after losing to the Dallas Cowboys 28-14 last Sunday as 2.5-point chalk, and they are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 away from home, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots have not only won five of the past six meetings with Cincinnati but have also covered four of the last five in the series. In fact, the last time they met in Foxboro in October 2014, New England's motivation was near an all-time high because critics had said it was the end of a dynasty after a disappointing 2-2 start.

The Patriots ended up winning 43-17 as 2.5-point underdogs that day behind 292 passing yards and two touchdowns from Brady, and they went on to win their fourth Super Bowl. A motivated Brady is scary for the opposition.

Smart pick

Bettors saw what Brady did to the Browns last week in his first game back from a four-game suspension, throwing for a week-high 406 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

New England will also be looking to atone for a 16-0 home loss to the Buffalo Bills the last time at Gillette, so expect Brady and head coach Bill Belichick to give the home crowd a lot to cheer about with a double-digit victory and cover on the Vegas odds.

Betting trends

The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Patriots.

The total has gone over in five of the Bengals' last seven games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.