Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Safeway Open

Fire up the joke of your choosing about the conclusion of the 2015-2016 PGA Tour season three weeks ago and the start of the 2016-2017 season this week: The Safeway Open is here.

The artist formerly known as the Frys.com Open was supposed to mark the return of Tiger Woods from a 400-day plus layoff. Instead, Woods, who committed to the tournament Friday, backed out Monday, saying his golf game wasn’t exactly ready for its closeup.

The sound of flowing water you hear is the collective river of tears shed by tournament organizers, networks, the PGA Tour and golf fans.

Nevertheless, the show must go on. Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar headline an above-average field. Last year’s rookie sensation Jon Rahm (and lesser sensation, Bryson DeChambeau) will be teeing it up as well at Silverado Resort & Spa.

The GolfStrat.com fantasy experts have identified strong performances in the following statistical categories as common among top performers at the Safeway Open: approaches from 150-175 yards, greens in regulation, approaches from more than 200 yards and approaches from 175-200 yards.

To see who fits the bill and for all the tournament details, read on.

Tournament Information

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Defending Champion: Emiliano Grillo

Where: Silverado Resort & Spa (North), Napa Valley, California, 7,203 yards, par 72

Total Purse: $6,000,000

Winning Share: $1,080,000

FedEx Points to Winner: 500   

When: Thursday-Sunday, 5-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

Biggest Storylines

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Tiger Woods is back! Wait...no, he isn't. The biggest storyline this week by a wide margin was supposed to be Woods’ return to the PGA Tour. Instead, the biggest storyline by a wide margin is Woods’ Monday decision not to tee it up in Napa.

Expect a substantial amount of discussion about the topic this week: What are Woods’ specific issues? Why wasn’t he ready? Is something seriously wrong with his game? Will he ever be able to contend again? All these questions will be discussed ad nauseum, perhaps to a degree that you’re compelled to reach for Napa’s most famous export.  

In the absence of Tiger, we’ve still got Phil Mickelson, though. Lefty, who hasn’t played a fall event on the PGA Tour since 2013, is back in action on the heels of a brilliant Sunday singles win over Sergio Garcia at the Ryder Cup two weeks ago.

Another notable name looking to continue the torridity is Paul Casey. The Englishman tallied top-four finishes in the final three FedEx Cup playoff events. He’ll look to build on that success entering the new season.

And, of course, expect no shortage of discussion about the Johnny Miller-redesigned north course at Silverado, even though we’re a couple of years on from the redo.

While Woods is absent, that doesn’t mean the tournament will lack for starpower...in the pro-am, at least. NBA Most Valuable Player Steph Curry and Andre Iguodala from the Golden State Warriors will play in the event.

Favorites

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Phil Mickelson: While Lefty wasn't brilliant in the FedEx Cup playoffs and struggled early at the Ryder Cup, he was nothing short of brilliant in his singles match. He'll be playing Silverado for the first time, but his pedigree as the No. 15 golfer in the world demands his inclusion among the favorites. 

Paul Casey: The hottest golfer in the field, Casey hasn't teed it up at Silverado since the redesign. However, given the quality of his recent play and the fact that he was seventh on tour in strokes gained: total last season (best in the field), he has rank among the contenders this week (on paper at least). 

Emiliano Grillo: Last year's winner in Napa, Grillo finished tied for 10th at the Tour Championship in his most recent action and hasn't missed a cut in 12 starts. Placed 26th on tour in birdie average last season, the Argentine can fill up the cup. 

Dark Horses

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Hudson Swafford: Hud Swaf's recent form hasn't been the best, but he's recorded top-10 finishes at Silverado the past two years. Off since the BMW Championship, Swafford should be well-rested and poised for a strong showing at a course he clearly favors. 

Charles Howell III: Compromised by surgical procedure during the summer and out of action for more than a month, CH III will have had plenty of time to practice without medical concerns weighing on his mind. A top-20 finisher at the venue last year, Howell should at worst reprise that result this time around. 

Other dark horses: Fabian Gomez, Roberto Castro, Bud Cauley, Brian Harman.

Prediction

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Winner: Justin Thomas

We could never have picked JT as a winner with the moustache pictured above, but fortunately he shaved it after tying for sixth at the Tour Championship. 

The Alabama alum finished tied for third at last year's Safeway Open, firing a six-under 66 in his opening round. Thus, he should be comfortable—and has proved capable—in Napa. 

At a course that values approach play, Thomas, who was 20th on tour last year in strokes gained approaching the green, is a wise bet. 

Stats via PGATour.com and the PGA Tour Media Guide.