Cam Newton Won't Last If Carolina Panthers, QB Don't Adapt to a Better Game Plan

The fear among some people around the NFL is that Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has already been subjected to the kind of punishment that could shorten or alter his career.

The daunting question is: Can the Panthers and Newton fix the problem? 

Following up on his NFL Most Valuable Player performance of a season ago, Newton is off to a career-worst start statistically with an 80.2 rating. He has been sacked at the highest rate of his career and is out for Carolina's Monday Night Football game against Tampa Bay.

The concussion came on a helmet-to-helmet hit against Atlanta, and Newton has taken several other shots to the head this season. Finally, Newton's ball-carrying mileage may be catching up to him.

Through each of his first five seasons, Newton has rushed at least 100 times and is on pace to do that again this year. Since 1961, no other quarterback has ever had more than three such seasons in a row. Moreover, there have been only 21 total seasons in which a quarterback has rushed 100 times or more during that span.

That kind of punishment led to an ominous warning from one former quarterback who was a talented runner himself, former Pittsburgh Steeler Kordell Stewart: "They better clear it up, or he won’t last the year. He won’t last for his career."

Former Chicago Bears quarterback Bobby Douglass set the record for most carries by a quarterback in a season with 141 (for 968 yards rushing) in 1972, when the season was only 14 games. He was less alarmist but still concerned.

"If you’re going to run that much, you have to learn how to avoid the hard contact," said Douglass, who was the Newton of his day at 6'5" and a listed weight of 225 pounds. Douglass also possessed a cannon arm, but the NFL passing game had yet to evolve to provide a lot of easy throws. "You’re going to get hit. I did, but I was able to avoid some of those really big shots."

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Other people around the NFL wonder if Newton has already started to feel the impact. Over his past five games, dating to the Super Bowl 50 loss against Denver, Newton has faced the Broncos twice and Minnesota once. He has been sacked 19 times and intercepted six times in those games.

By the time Newton played against Atlanta last week, he seemed to have an obvious case of the jitters.

"You can see he’s feeling the pressure even when it’s not there," said one defensive player who has studied Newton this year. The player pointed to a number of erratic throws in which Newton appeared to rush through his mechanics. The result was more than Newton’s usual share of missed throws.

"Cam has never been great with his mechanics," Stewart said. "That’s not his game. But it’s obvious he’s taken a lot of hits and it’s changing him. Before, he could get away with a lot of that stuff and make it work. … This is really hard to correct, especially when your athletic ability is better than your passing skills."

Newton and the Panthers have used that athletic skill extensively. The Panthers have made read-option plays a regular part of the offense and often use Newton as a glorified running back in the offense with so many designed runs.

And if a quarterback is going to run, he’s going to get hit. And hit. And hit. Not only has Newton been sacked 13 times through four games this season, but he already has 29 carries, putting him on pace for 109, if he only misses one game.

Prior to Newton, the longest streak of consecutive seasons with 100 rushing attempts by a quarterback was three. Michael Vick did that from 2004 through 2006. To put that in further perspective, Vick had only five such seasons in his entire career.

And Vick was already an outlier. Again, there have been only 15 such seasons combined since the 1961 season, when the NFL went from 12 to 14 games and the passing game started to evolve. Newton and Vick have five each. Randall Cunningham had two. Douglass, Steve McNair and Tim Tebow had one each.

Every one of those quarterbacks was impacted by injuries in a significant way. Vick played only one full season in his 13-year career. Cunningham played in three consecutive Pro Bowls from 1988 to 1990. He carried at least 100 times in 1989 and 1990. That was early in his 16-year career.

Over the final 10 years of Cunningham’s career, he played in more than seven games only three times. His body was ravaged by injuries, starting with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1991.

Douglass tore an ACL during his career and played through it over his final six years.

McNair significantly altered the way he played after carrying that much in his first full season as a starter in 1997. He became more of a pocket passer but was still injured throughout much of his career because of his willingness to run and take hits.

Tebow finished his one season as a starter with a bad shoulder and broken ribs in a style of play that was considered unsustainable.

If that’s an indication, Newton may be in trouble as he plays his sixth season. Two general managers from other teams said this week that Newton plays the type of game that doesn’t make for a long career.

"You can’t maintain that pace of running and taking shots," one GM said. "He either has to change, or we’re going to be talking about him like, 'Oh yeah, what could have been.'"

The problem for Newton is layered.

Primarily, this is the way he likes to play and how he has played dating back to when he was in high school and college. At 6'5", 245 pounds, Newton has always liked to use his size and speed to his advantage.

"You want to utilize all of his abilities when you have him with the ball in his hands," said former Pro Bowl offensive lineman LeCharles Bentley, who runs O-Line Performance in Phoenix and studies offensive play. "You make it work until the wheels come off…you’d be crazy to buy a Lamborghini and drive the speed limit. You might as well buy a Honda and efficiently go about your business."

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While Bentley called the Panthers offensive line "a good group that plays hard," he also acknowledged that part of the way they block and protect for Newton is based on using his skills as a runner to change Xs and Os. Essentially, the defense has to account for an extra body because of Newton’s dynamic ability.

But Bentley acknowledged that such ability doesn’t last forever, no matter the athlete.

"It’s going to go away, either naturally or the defense is going to beat it out of him," Bentley said. "I don’t blame the coaches for what they’re doing with him. You have to use the talents that are there. We’re not yet where the alarm has to be rung, but he has to adapt. All players have to adapt. Peyton Manning, after he had all those neck surgeries, he wasn’t the same. But he found a way to adapt so that he could keep playing."

At the same time, Manning was always a skilled passer. Newton is a quarterback who uses his own running ability to set up the rest of his game and the Panthers offense. At least that’s how he has played so far in his career.

Can he refine his passing skills as his body continues to take a toll?

"I would never put limitations on him," one general manager said. "He’s too talented. But what you’re talking about is not easy, and he has to start making the transition earlier. I think the whole team has to make a conscious effort to make that transition. You have to cut the runs down. You have to work on that offensive line, because they’re not great. You have to put in some easier, quicker throws.

"You need more tools in the tool belt for him, and you have to force him to use those tools."

Or else?

"Or else he doesn’t last."